Issued 2026-09-11 at $135.07 · now $135.07 (2026-09-02, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-11 close, APGE has typically landed between $103.26 and $193.06 — a range of −23.6% to +42.9% from the issuance price $135.07.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
767 overlapping 1 month windows · 2023-07-14 – 2026-08-04 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 54.0% (90% CI 51.9–56.1%, ≈1,452 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-11 issuance close ($135.07) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-12, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where APGE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-11 close of $135.07 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $135.07 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $138.41 (+2.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $120.63–$156.18
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $103.26–$193.06
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 767 windows spanning 2023-07-14 to 2026-09-02. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-03-27 | −30.8% | −32.7% | +0.0% |
| 2024-03-26 | −30.2% | −30.2% | +3.6% |
| 2023-09-27 | −30.1% | −30.1% | +3.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-02-12 | +96.6% | −2.8% | +96.6% |
| 2024-02-27 | +95.7% | +0.0% | +100.6% |
| 2024-02-22 | +94.9% | −0.9% | +98.8% |
767 overlapping windows · 2023-07-14 – 2026-09-02 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- November 2026 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Study Evaluating APG777 in Atopic Dermatitis (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- December 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: A Long-term Safety and Efficacy Study Evaluating APG777 in Atopic Dermatitis (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~4 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
33%
−0.7%
n=3
Feb
67%
−4.4%
n=3
Mar
100%
+43.3%
n=3
Apr
33%
−6.9%
n=3
May
0%
−5.6%
n=3
Jun
67%
+22.1%
n=3
Jul
67%
+4.3%
n=3
Aug
75%
+2.0%
n=4
Sep
50%
+4.2%
n=4
Oct
33%
+3.9%
n=3
Nov
67%
+9.2%
n=3
Dec
100%
+16.1%
n=3
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Dambkowski Carl | director | Sale | 5,500 @ $134.17 | $738K | −3.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 168,498 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-08 | HENDERSON MICHAEL THOMAS | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $133.63 | $2.7M | −2.0% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 995,987 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Dambkowski Carl | director | Sale | 5,500 @ $132.74 | $730K | −3.0% of holding | +0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 177,873 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | HENDERSON MICHAEL THOMAS | director | Sale | 80,000 @ $132.54 | $10.6M | −7.3% of holding | +0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,015,987 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-22 | Dambkowski Carl | director | Sale | 26,400 @ $132.60 | $3.5M | −12.8% of holding | +0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 179,248 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | HENDERSON MICHAEL THOMAS | director | Sale | 7,654 @ $82.78 | $634K | −0.7% of holding | +58.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,101,563 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | HENDERSON MICHAEL THOMAS | director | Sale | 6,770 @ $82.21 | $557K | −0.6% of holding | +58.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,109,217 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | HENDERSON MICHAEL THOMAS | director | Sale | 2,305 @ $86.27 | $199K | −0.2% of holding | +58.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,096,601 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | HENDERSON MICHAEL THOMAS | director | Sale | 1,577 @ $85.19 | $134K | −0.1% of holding | +58.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,098,906 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | HENDERSON MICHAEL THOMAS | director | Sale | 1,080 @ $84.18 | $91K | −0.1% of holding | +58.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,100,483 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | HENDERSON MICHAEL THOMAS | director | Sale | 614 @ $86.89 | $53K | −0.1% of holding | +58.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,095,987 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Dambkowski Carl | director | Sale | 5,500 @ $78.71 | $433K | −2.6% of holding | +58.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 205,648 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | HENDERSON MICHAEL THOMAS | director | Sale | 18,659 @ $82.05 | $1.5M | −1.6% of holding | +5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,117,328 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | HENDERSON MICHAEL THOMAS | director | Sale | 1,341 @ $82.58 | $111K | −0.1% of holding | +5.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,115,987 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Dambkowski Carl | director | Sale | 3,700 @ $83.92 | $311K | −1.7% of holding | +2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 208,823 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Dambkowski Carl | director | Sale | 1,800 @ $84.60 | $152K | −0.9% of holding | +2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 207,023 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Henderson Jane | director | Sale | 900 @ $82.60 | $74K | −0.5% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 173,660 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Henderson Jane | director | Sale | 811 @ $81.02 | $66K | −0.5% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 174,560 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Henderson Jane | director | Sale | 289 @ $83.16 | $24K | −0.2% of holding | −7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 173,371 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | Henderson Jane | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $90.00 | $180K | −1.1% of holding | −15.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 175,371 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | HENDERSON MICHAEL THOMAS | director | Sale | 17,800 @ $82.48 | $1.5M | −1.5% of holding | −9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,135,187 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | HENDERSON MICHAEL THOMAS | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $83.26 | $167K | −0.2% of holding | −9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,133,187 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-08 | HENDERSON MICHAEL THOMAS | director | Sale | 200 @ $85.00 | $17K | −0.0% of holding | −9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,132,987 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Dambkowski Carl | director | Sale | 2,702 @ $85.33 | $231K | −1.3% of holding | −14.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 208,498 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Dambkowski Carl | director | Sale | 2,698 @ $84.31 | $227K | −1.3% of holding | −14.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 211,200 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Henderson Jane | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $85.46 | $94K | −0.6% of holding | −14.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 177,371 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Henderson Jane | director | Sale | 900 @ $84.46 | $76K | −0.5% of holding | −14.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 178,471 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Dambkowski Carl | director | Sale | 100 @ $85.89 | $9K | −0.0% of holding | −14.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 208,398 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-25 | Henderson Jane | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $85.00 | $170K | −1.1% of holding | +0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 179,371 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | HENDERSON MICHAEL THOMAS | director | Sale | 8,363 @ $74.29 | $621K | −0.7% of holding | +14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,164,624 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | HENDERSON MICHAEL THOMAS | director | Sale | 8,219 @ $74.83 | $615K | −0.7% of holding | +14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,156,405 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | HENDERSON MICHAEL THOMAS | director | Sale | 3,418 @ $75.86 | $259K | −0.3% of holding | +14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,152,987 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Dambkowski Carl | director | Sale | 3,225 @ $70.33 | $227K | −1.5% of holding | +20.7% | +74.5% | 212,048 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Dambkowski Carl | director | Sale | 2,075 @ $71.98 | $149K | −1.0% of holding | +20.7% | +74.5% | 209,973 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Dambkowski Carl | director | Sale | 200 @ $73.26 | $15K | −0.1% of holding | +20.7% | +74.5% | 209,773 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Henderson Jane | director | Sale | 994 @ $70.45 | $70K | −0.5% of holding | +23.7% | +78.1% | 181,777 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Henderson Jane | director | Sale | 406 @ $71.66 | $29K | −0.2% of holding | +23.7% | +78.1% | 181,371 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Henderson Jane | director | Sale | 300 @ $69.43 | $21K | −0.2% of holding | +23.7% | +78.1% | 182,771 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Henderson Jane | director | Sale | 300 @ $68.27 | $20K | −0.2% of holding | +23.7% | +78.1% | 183,071 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | HENDERSON MICHAEL THOMAS | director | Sale | 11,494 @ $62.96 | $724K | −1.0% of holding | +13.5% | +91.3% | 1,181,493 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | HENDERSON MICHAEL THOMAS | director | Sale | 7,551 @ $63.73 | $481K | −0.6% of holding | +13.5% | +91.3% | 1,173,942 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | HENDERSON MICHAEL THOMAS | director | Sale | 955 @ $64.99 | $62K | −0.1% of holding | +13.5% | +91.3% | 1,172,987 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-04 | Dambkowski Carl | director | Sale | 2,481 @ $64.88 | $161K | −1.1% of holding | +14.6% | +94.7% | 214,167 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-04 | Dambkowski Carl | director | Sale | 1,420 @ $65.83 | $93K | −0.7% of holding | +14.6% | +94.7% | 212,747 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-04 | Dambkowski Carl | director | Sale | 1,299 @ $66.85 | $87K | −0.6% of holding | +14.6% | +94.7% | 211,448 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-04 | Dambkowski Carl | director | Sale | 200 @ $68.94 | $14K | −0.1% of holding | +14.6% | +94.7% | 211,148 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-04 | Dambkowski Carl | director | Sale | 100 @ $67.88 | $7K | −0.0% of holding | +14.6% | +94.7% | 211,348 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-02 | Henderson Jane | director | Sale | 1,108 @ $66.15 | $73K | −0.6% of holding | +11.7% | +93.0% | 183,471 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Henderson Jane | director | Sale | 792 @ $65.21 | $52K | −0.4% of holding | +11.7% | +93.0% | 184,579 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Henderson Jane | director | Sale | 100 @ $66.89 | $7K | −0.1% of holding | +11.7% | +93.0% | 183,371 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-22 | Fairmount Funds Management LLC | director | Sale | 1,750,000 @ $76.30 | $133.5M | −85.4% of holding | −11.5% | +60.3% | 298,647 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-14 | HENDERSON MICHAEL THOMAS | director | Sale | 8,476 @ $79.82 | $677K | −0.7% of holding | −16.5% | +54.3% | 1,203,071 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
248 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Shah Nimish P | director | Disposition | 6,743,321 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Shah Nimish P | director | Disposition | 1,750,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Shah Nimish P | director | Disposition | 7,657 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Shah Nimish P | director | Disposition | 14,461 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Shah Nimish P | director | Disposition | 10,370 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Shah Nimish P | director | Disposition | 47,758 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | McKenna Mark C. | director | Disposition | 7,657 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | McKenna Mark C. | director | Disposition | 14,461 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | McKenna Mark C. | director | Disposition | 10,370 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | McKenna Mark C. | director | Disposition | 150,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | McKenna Mark C. | director | Disposition | 20,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Fairmount Funds Management LLC | director | Disposition | 7,657 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Fairmount Funds Management LLC | director | Disposition | 14,461 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Fairmount Funds Management LLC | director | Disposition | 10,370 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Fairmount Funds Management LLC | director | Disposition | 47,758 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Fairmount Funds Management LLC | director | Disposition | 6,743,321 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Fairmount Funds Management LLC | director | Disposition | 51,166 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Fairmount Funds Management LLC | director | Disposition | 51,166 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Fairmount Funds Management LLC | director | Disposition | 340,855 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | JONES WILLIAM A JR | director | Disposition | 7,657 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | JONES WILLIAM A JR | director | Disposition | 14,461 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | JONES WILLIAM A JR | director | Disposition | 10,370 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | JONES WILLIAM A JR | director | Disposition | 34,824 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Fairmount Funds Management LLC | director | Disposition | 340,855 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Henderson Jane | director | Disposition | 83,690 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Fairmount Funds Management LLC | director | Disposition | 7,657 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Fairmount Funds Management LLC | director | Disposition | 14,461 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Fairmount Funds Management LLC | director | Disposition | 10,370 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Fairmount Funds Management LLC | director | Disposition | 47,758 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Fairmount Funds Management LLC | director | Disposition | 6,743,321 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Fairmount Funds Management LLC | director | Disposition | 51,166 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Fairmount Funds Management LLC | director | Disposition | 51,166 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | HENDERSON MICHAEL THOMAS | director | Disposition | 253,016 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | HENDERSON MICHAEL THOMAS | director | Disposition | 920,941 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | HENDERSON MICHAEL THOMAS | director | Disposition | 357,036 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | HENDERSON MICHAEL THOMAS | director | Disposition | 387,012 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Henderson Jane | director | Disposition | 124,962 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Henderson Jane | director | Disposition | 175,345 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Henderson Jane | director | Disposition | 158,371 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Fox Jennifer A. | director | Disposition | 7,657 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.