Issued 2026-09-16 at $36.76 · now $36.76 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, APG has typically landed between $32.02 and $42.53 — a range of −12.9% to +15.7% from the issuance price $36.76.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,583 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-04-29 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($36.76) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where APG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $36.76 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $36.76 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $37.33 (+1.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $35.05–$39.6
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $32.02–$42.53
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,583 windows spanning 2020-04-29 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-08-25 | −20.5% | −20.5% | +0.0% |
| 2022-04-07 | −19.3% | −19.3% | +1.8% |
| 2022-01-04 | −17.9% | −19.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-05-15 | +45.6% | +0.0% | +45.6% |
| 2020-05-18 | +39.8% | +0.0% | +39.8% |
| 2020-05-19 | +38.1% | +0.0% | +38.1% |
1,583 overlapping windows · 2020-04-29 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+1.5%
n=6
Feb
83%
+4.5%
n=6
Mar
33%
−0.1%
n=6
Apr
67%
+1.5%
n=6
May
29%
+1.4%
n=7
Jun
71%
+4.5%
n=7
Jul
86%
+6.9%
n=7
Aug
29%
−2.8%
n=7
Sep
14%
−7.3%
n=7
Oct
83%
+7.1%
n=6
Nov
100%
+11.1%
n=6
Dec
50%
+5.3%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | ASHKEN IAN G H | director | Sale | 80,071 @ $40.33 | $3.2M | −0.9% of holding | −4.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,182,285 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | ASHKEN IAN G H | director | Sale | 5,001 @ $40.76 | $204K | −0.1% of holding | −4.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,177,284 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | LILLIE JAMES E | director | Sale | 282,796 @ $39.84 | $11.3M | −3.1% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,954,554 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | ASHKEN IAN G H | director | Sale | 214,928 @ $39.91 | $8.6M | −2.3% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,262,356 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | LILLIE JAMES E | director | Sale | 74,420 @ $39.84 | $3.0M | −5.8% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,205,339 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | LILLIE JAMES E | director | Sale | 2,204 @ $40.11 | $88K | −0.0% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,952,350 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | LILLIE JAMES E | director | Sale | 580 @ $40.11 | $23K | −0.0% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,204,759 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | MALKIN ANTHONY E | director | Sale | 7,000 @ $42.47 | $297K | −100.0% of holding | −6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | FRANKLIN MARTIN E | director | Sale | 2,000,000 @ $42.08 | $84.2M | −9.4% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,240,426 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | ASHKEN IAN G H | director | Sale | 50,634 @ $45.38 | $2.3M | −0.5% of holding | −11.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,492,184 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | LILLIE JAMES E | director | Sale | 45,816 @ $45.39 | $2.1M | −0.5% of holding | −11.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,250,995 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | ASHKEN IAN G H | director | Sale | 14,900 @ $45.86 | $683K | −0.2% of holding | −11.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,477,284 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | LILLIE JAMES E | director | Sale | 13,645 @ $45.86 | $626K | −0.1% of holding | −11.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,237,350 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | LILLIE JAMES E | director | Sale | 12,057 @ $45.39 | $547K | −0.9% of holding | −11.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,278,610 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | LILLIE JAMES E | director | Sale | 3,591 @ $45.86 | $165K | −0.3% of holding | −11.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,275,019 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | ASHKEN IAN G H | director | Sale | 850,000 @ $44.71 | $38.0M | −8.2% of holding | −10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,542,818 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | LILLIE JAMES E | director | Sale | 180,217 @ $44.69 | $8.1M | −1.9% of holding | −10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,342,133 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | ASHKEN IAN G H | director | Sale | 134,265 @ $44.70 | $6.0M | −1.3% of holding | −10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,427,019 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | LILLIE JAMES E | director | Sale | 47,425 @ $44.69 | $2.1M | −3.5% of holding | −10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,302,594 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | LILLIE JAMES E | director | Sale | 45,322 @ $45.60 | $2.1M | −0.5% of holding | −10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,296,811 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | ASHKEN IAN G H | director | Sale | 34,201 @ $45.34 | $1.6M | −0.3% of holding | −10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,392,818 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | LILLIE JAMES E | director | Sale | 11,927 @ $45.60 | $544K | −0.9% of holding | −10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,290,667 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | FRANKLIN MARTIN E | director | Sale | 3,000,000 @ $40.88 | $122.6M | −12.4% of holding | +10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,240,426 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-04 | LILLIE JAMES E | director | Sale | 83,592 @ $42.94 | $3.6M | −0.9% of holding | +1.5% | −21.0% | 9,522,387 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-04 | ASHKEN IAN G H | director | Sale | 72,546 @ $42.94 | $3.1M | −0.7% of holding | +1.5% | −21.0% | 10,561,284 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-04 | LILLIE JAMES E | director | Sale | 21,998 @ $42.94 | $945K | −1.6% of holding | +1.5% | −21.0% | 1,350,030 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-04 | LILLIE JAMES E | director | Sale | 37 @ $43.55 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | +1.5% | −21.0% | 9,522,350 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-04 | LILLIE JAMES E | director | Sale | 11 @ $43.55 | $479 | −0.0% of holding | +1.5% | −21.0% | 1,350,019 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-03 | ASHKEN IAN G H | director | Sale | 109,691 @ $43.11 | $4.7M | −1.0% of holding | −0.6% | −22.2% | 10,638,548 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | LILLIE JAMES E | director | Sale | 95,579 @ $43.11 | $4.1M | −1.0% of holding | −0.6% | −22.2% | 9,610,883 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | LILLIE JAMES E | director | Sale | 25,152 @ $43.11 | $1.1M | −1.8% of holding | −0.6% | −22.2% | 1,373,318 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | LILLIE JAMES E | director | Sale | 4,904 @ $43.41 | $213K | −0.1% of holding | −0.6% | −22.2% | 9,605,979 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | ASHKEN IAN G H | director | Sale | 4,718 @ $43.43 | $205K | −0.0% of holding | −0.6% | −22.2% | 10,633,830 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | LILLIE JAMES E | director | Sale | 1,290 @ $43.41 | $56K | −0.1% of holding | −0.6% | −22.2% | 1,372,028 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | ASHKEN IAN G H | director | Sale | 84,853 @ $44.21 | $3.8M | −0.8% of holding | −4.1% | −24.3% | 10,776,431 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | LILLIE JAMES E | director | Sale | 68,248 @ $44.20 | $3.0M | −0.7% of holding | −4.1% | −24.3% | 9,739,102 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | LILLIE JAMES E | director | Sale | 32,640 @ $44.51 | $1.5M | −0.3% of holding | −4.1% | −24.3% | 9,706,462 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | ASHKEN IAN G H | director | Sale | 28,192 @ $44.52 | $1.3M | −0.3% of holding | −4.1% | −24.3% | 10,748,239 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | LILLIE JAMES E | director | Sale | 17,960 @ $44.20 | $794K | −1.3% of holding | −4.1% | −24.3% | 1,407,059 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | LILLIE JAMES E | director | Sale | 8,589 @ $44.51 | $382K | −0.6% of holding | −4.1% | −24.3% | 1,398,470 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | JACKOLA GLENN DAVID | officer | Sale | 18,000 @ $44.23 | $796K | −64.2% of holding | −4.4% | −23.5% | 10,035 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Lambert Louis | officer | Sale | 22,000 @ $44.71 | $984K | −57.7% of holding | −3.8% | −21.1% | 16,148 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-10 | MALKIN ANTHONY E | director | Purchase | 3,000 @ $39.58 | $119K | +75.0% of holding | +5.1% | −2.5% | 7,000 | Form 4 · filed 30 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | MALKIN ANTHONY E | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $39.03 | $78K | +100.0% of holding | +4.1% | +3.7% | 4,000 | Form 4 · filed 35 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | MALKIN ANTHONY E | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $39.46 | $79K | ownership Δ n/a | −1.6% | −8.8% | 2,000 | Form 4 · filed 44 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | FRANKLIN MARTIN E | director | Sale | 252,122 @ $35.97 | $9.1M | −1.3% of holding | +6.2% | +11.6% | 19,056,668 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-05 | FRANKLIN MARTIN E | director | Sale | 87,878 @ $36.44 | $3.2M | −0.5% of holding | +6.2% | +11.6% | 18,968,790 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-04 | FRANKLIN MARTIN E | director | Sale | 260,000 @ $35.44 | $9.2M | −1.3% of holding | +8.7% | +17.0% | 19,308,790 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | FRANKLIN MARTIN E | director | Sale | 289,837 @ $36.17 | $10.5M | −1.5% of holding | +8.2% | +21.4% | 19,578,953 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | FRANKLIN MARTIN E | director | Sale | 10,163 @ $36.78 | $374K | −0.1% of holding | +8.2% | +21.4% | 19,568,790 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | FRANKLIN MARTIN E | director | Sale | 1,200,000 @ $34.64 | $41.6M | −5.7% of holding | −6.0% | +16.2% | 19,868,790 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | ASHKEN IAN G H | director | Sale | 205,550 @ $35.24 | $7.2M | −2.5% of holding | −1.9% | +18.6% | 7,968,167 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | LILLIE JAMES E | director | Sale | 95,000 @ $35.23 | $3.3M | −1.3% of holding | −1.9% | +18.6% | 7,348,101 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-12 | LILLIE JAMES E | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $35.23 | $881K | −1.7% of holding | −1.9% | +18.6% | 1,425,019 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | LILLIE JAMES E | director | Sale | 190,000 @ $34.88 | $6.6M | −2.5% of holding | −2.1% | +20.1% | 7,443,101 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | LILLIE JAMES E | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $34.88 | $1.7M | −3.3% of holding | −2.1% | +20.1% | 1,450,019 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | ASHKEN IAN G H | director | Sale | 19,450 @ $35.01 | $681K | −0.2% of holding | −2.1% | +20.1% | 8,398,703 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | ARSENIADIS JAMES | officer | Sale | 4,843 @ $35.38 | $171K | −28.6% of holding | −4.8% | +9.1% | 12,116 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | LILLIE JAMES E | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $42.73 | $8.5M | −3.8% of holding | +5.1% | +3.3% | 5,088,734 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | ASHKEN IAN G H | director | Sale | 150,000 @ $42.72 | $6.4M | −2.6% of holding | +5.1% | +3.3% | 5,612,102 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
225 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Thomas V Milroy | director | Withheld for tax | 2,538 | 81,721 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-16 | MALKIN ANTHONY E | director | Option exercise | 7,844 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thomas V Milroy | director | Option exercise | 4,740 | 84,259 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-16 | Loop Paula | director | Option exercise | 4,740 | 25,776 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-16 | Loop Paula | director | Option exercise | 4,740 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-16 | MALKIN ANTHONY E | director | Option exercise | 7,844 | 148,718 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-16 | WHEELER CARRIE | director | Option exercise | 7,844 | 65,318 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-16 | WHEELER CARRIE | director | Option exercise | 7,844 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-16 | LILLIE JAMES E | director | Option exercise | 4,740 | 1,279,759 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-16 | LILLIE JAMES E | director | Option exercise | 4,740 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thomas V Milroy | director | Option exercise | 4,740 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-16 | Walker Cyrus D. | director | Option exercise | 4,740 | 58,470 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-16 | Walker Cyrus D. | director | Option exercise | 4,740 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-16 | ASHKEN IAN G H | director | Option exercise | 4,740 | 58,470 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-16 | ASHKEN IAN G H | director | Option exercise | 4,740 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | ASHKEN IAN G H | director | Award / grant | 4,047 | 4,047 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Loop Paula | director | Award / grant | 4,047 | 4,047 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | WHEELER CARRIE | director | Award / grant | 6,590 | 6,590 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Thomas V Milroy | director | Award / grant | 4,047 | 4,047 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | MALKIN ANTHONY E | director | Award / grant | 6,590 | 6,590 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | LILLIE JAMES E | director | Award / grant | 4,047 | 4,047 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Walker Cyrus D. | director | Award / grant | 4,047 | 4,047 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Becker Russell A. | director | Withheld for tax | 32,549 | 2,484,032 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Lambert Louis | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,318 | 25,431 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | JACKOLA GLENN DAVID | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,955 | 16,440 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | MORTON KRISTINA M | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,312 | 112,473 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | ARSENIADIS JAMES | officer | Withheld for tax | 849 | 19,333 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Lambert Louis | officer | Option exercise | 5,427 | 30,749 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Becker Russell A. | director | Option exercise | 33,446 | 2,483,872 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Becker Russell A. | director | Option exercise | 32,709 | 2,516,581 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Becker Russell A. | director | Option exercise | 33,446 | 33,446 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Becker Russell A. | director | Option exercise | 32,709 | 65,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | ARSENIADIS JAMES | officer | Option exercise | 839 | 19,161 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | MORTON KRISTINA M | officer | Option exercise | 4,418 | 112,071 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | MORTON KRISTINA M | officer | Option exercise | 4,714 | 116,785 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | MORTON KRISTINA M | officer | Option exercise | 4,418 | 4,418 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | MORTON KRISTINA M | officer | Option exercise | 4,714 | 9,427 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Lambert Louis | officer | Option exercise | 5,379 | 25,322 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Lambert Louis | officer | Option exercise | 5,379 | 5,379 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Lambert Louis | officer | Option exercise | 5,427 | 10,851 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.