APEIAmerican Public Education, Inc.Consumer Defensive · Education & Training Servicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $44.44 · now $44.44 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, APEI has typically landed between $34.10 and $58.60 — a range of −23.3% to +31.9% from the issuance price $44.44.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,720 overlapping 1 month windows · 2007-11-09 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($44.44) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where APEI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $44.44 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$34.1worst · -23.3%$58.6best · +31.9%
  • now $44.44 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $44.95 (+1.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $40.54–$49.36
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $34.1–$58.6
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,720 windows spanning 2007-11-09 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2023-02-16−68.4%−68.4%+0.0%
2023-02-15−68.1%−68.1%+0.0%
2023-02-17−67.7%−68.3%+0.0%
3 best
2023-11-02+113.8%+0.0%+113.8%
2023-11-01+98.3%+0.0%+98.3%
2023-11-07+93.5%+0.0%+109.3%

4,720 overlapping windows · 2007-11-09 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
42%
−1.2%
n=19
Feb
37%
+0.5%
n=19
Mar
53%
+5.1%
n=19
Apr
42%
−1.6%
n=19
May
47%
+0.8%
n=19
Jun
68%
+4.2%
n=19
Jul
63%
+0.8%
n=19
Aug
26%
−10.2%
n=19
Sep
37%
+0.3%
n=19
Oct
39%
−0.6%
n=18
Nov
78%
+12.0%
n=18
Dec
58%
+3.2%
n=19

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$61$292026-08-12: 2 insider sales, $457K — Fernandes Nuno S., Kenigsberg James2026-06-22: 1 insider sale, $108K — Beckett Thomas2026-06-15: 3 insider sales, $414K — Beckett Thomas …2026-05-13: 1 insider sale, $240K — Fernandes Nuno S.2026-03-20: 2 insider sales, $3.5M — 325 CAPITAL LLC …2026-03-19: 4 insider sales, $5.3M — 325 CAPITAL LLC, Fernandes Nuno S. …2026-03-18: 1 insider sale, $3.5M — 325 CAPITAL LLC2026-03-17: 2 insider sales, $3.4M — 325 CAPITAL LLC, Gaffney Karmela2026-03-16: 6 insider sales, $5.0M — 325 CAPITAL LLC, Axenson Tanya Joy, Fernandes Nuno S., Beckett Thomas …2025-11-12: 2 insider sales, $551K — Axenson Tanya Joy, Fernandes Nuno S.2025-11: 2 open-market sales, $551K2026-03: 15 open-market sales, $20.8M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $240K2026-06: 4 open-market sales, $522K2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $457K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Fernandes Nuno S. — Sale on 2026-08-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Kenigsberg James — Sale on 2026-08-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Beckett Thomas — Sale on 2026-06-22, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Beckett Thomas — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Beckett Thomas — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Beckett Thomas — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Fernandes Nuno S. — Sale on 2026-05-13, filed 2 days after the tradedirector 325 CAPITAL LLC — Sale on 2026-03-20, filed 3 days after the tradedirector 325 CAPITAL LLC — Sale on 2026-03-20, filed 3 days after the tradedirector 325 CAPITAL LLC — Sale on 2026-03-19, filed 4 days after the tradedirector 325 CAPITAL LLC — Sale on 2026-03-19, filed 4 days after the tradedirector 325 CAPITAL LLC — Sale on 2026-03-19, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Fernandes Nuno S. — Sale on 2026-03-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector 325 CAPITAL LLC — Sale on 2026-03-18, filed same daydirector 325 CAPITAL LLC — Sale on 2026-03-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Gaffney Karmela — Sale on 2026-03-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector 325 CAPITAL LLC — Sale on 2026-03-16, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Axenson Tanya Joy — Sale on 2026-03-16, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Axenson Tanya Joy — Sale on 2026-03-16, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Fernandes Nuno S. — Sale on 2026-03-16, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Beckett Thomas — Sale on 2026-03-16, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Axenson Tanya Joy — Sale on 2026-03-16, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Axenson Tanya Joy — Sale on 2025-11-12, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Fernandes Nuno S. — Sale on 2025-11-12, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-12Fernandes Nuno S.officerSale8,800 @ $45.13$397K−10.1% of holding+0.6%not yet — horizon still open78,575Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-12Kenigsberg JamesdirectorSale1,313 @ $45.72$60K−2.9% of holding+0.6%not yet — horizon still open44,729Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-22Beckett ThomasdirectorSale2,000 @ $54.00$108K−3.7% of holding−12.8%not yet — horizon still open52,172Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-15Beckett ThomasdirectorSale5,213 @ $51.39$268K−8.4% of holding−0.7%not yet — horizon still open56,959Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-15Beckett ThomasdirectorSale2,587 @ $52.44$136K−4.5% of holding−0.7%not yet — horizon still open54,372Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-15Beckett ThomasdirectorSale200 @ $53.01$11K−0.4% of holding−0.7%not yet — horizon still open54,172Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-13Fernandes Nuno S.officerSale4,500 @ $53.34$240K−5.4% of holding−1.4%not yet — horizon still open78,575Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-20325 CAPITAL LLCdirectorSale62,100 @ $53.74$3.3M−6.9% of holding+2.7%not yet — horizon still open839,134Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-20325 CAPITAL LLCdirectorSale2,900 @ $54.60$158K−0.3% of holding+2.7%not yet — horizon still open836,234Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-19325 CAPITAL LLCdirectorSale80,333 @ $54.79$4.4M−8.1% of holding+3.9%not yet — horizon still open905,936Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-19325 CAPITAL LLCdirectorSale10,477 @ $54.20$568K−1.1% of holding+3.9%not yet — horizon still open986,269Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-19325 CAPITAL LLCdirectorSale4,702 @ $55.55$261K−0.5% of holding+3.9%not yet — horizon still open901,234Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-19Fernandes Nuno S.officerSale1,100 @ $54.08$59K−1.3% of holding+3.9%not yet — horizon still open83,075Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-18325 CAPITAL LLCdirectorSale63,500 @ $55.41$3.5M−6.0% of holding+3.9%not yet — horizon still open996,746Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-17325 CAPITAL LLCdirectorSale58,797 @ $55.85$3.3M−5.3% of holding+1.5%−33.6%1,060,246Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-17Gaffney KarmelaofficerSale2,700 @ $55.87$151K−6.2% of holding+1.5%−33.6%40,527Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-16325 CAPITAL LLCdirectorSale61,962 @ $55.45$3.4M−5.2% of holding−0.5%−32.9%1,119,043Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-16Axenson Tanya JoyofficerSale10,617 @ $55.20$586K−15.2% of holding−0.5%−32.9%59,300Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-16Axenson Tanya JoyofficerSale8,817 @ $56.18$495K−14.9% of holding−0.5%−32.9%50,483Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-16Fernandes Nuno S.officerSale6,500 @ $53.87$350K−7.2% of holding−0.5%−32.9%84,175Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-16Beckett ThomasdirectorSale2,000 @ $57.70$115K−3.1% of holding−0.5%−32.9%62,172Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-16Axenson Tanya JoyofficerSale566 @ $56.90$32K−1.1% of holding−0.5%−32.9%49,917Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12Axenson Tanya JoyofficerSale10,363 @ $34.77$360K−15.1% of holding+5.9%+43.7%58,403Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12Fernandes Nuno S.officerSale5,500 @ $34.68$191K−6.3% of holding+5.9%+43.7%82,249Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-06325 CAPITAL LLCdirectorSale214,396 @ $28.04$6.0M−15.4% of holding+4.8%+7.1%1,181,005Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-05325 CAPITAL LLCdirectorSale103,522 @ $28.21$2.9M−6.9% of holding+1.6%+8.6%1,395,401Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-04325 CAPITAL LLCdirectorSale27,523 @ $27.96$770K−1.8% of holding+3.7%+10.5%1,498,923Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-04Kenigsberg JamesdirectorSale5,136 @ $28.03$144K−17.4% of holding+3.7%+10.5%24,448Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-04Kenigsberg JamesdirectorSale1,233 @ $28.69$35K−5.0% of holding+3.7%+10.5%23,215Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-03325 CAPITAL LLCdirectorSale54,913 @ $29.32$1.6M−3.5% of holding−1.5%+6.3%1,526,446Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-02325 CAPITAL LLCdirectorSale79,791 @ $29.33$2.3M−4.8% of holding−4.9%+5.2%1,581,359Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-02SUNDERLAND RICHARD W JRofficerSale11,902 @ $29.16$347K−6.9% of holding−4.9%+5.2%159,559Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-30325 CAPITAL LLCdirectorSale127,406 @ $29.45$3.8M−7.1% of holding−4.8%+1.6%1,661,150Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-29325 CAPITAL LLCdirectorSale46,418 @ $29.36$1.4M+4.6% of holding−0.4%+3.6%1,055,012Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-27325 CAPITAL LLCdirectorSale85,405 @ $29.83$2.5M+8.7% of holding−3.5%+1.5%1,068,205Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-27325 CAPITAL LLCdirectorSale2,231 @ $29.38$66K+0.2% of holding−3.5%+1.5%1,065,974Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-16SUNDERLAND RICHARD W JRofficerSale5,843 @ $27.72$162K−3.3% of holding+0.2%+9.8%171,461Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-15SUNDERLAND RICHARD W JRofficerSale5,924 @ $27.40$162K−3.2% of holding−3.6%+9.8%177,324Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-15SUNDERLAND RICHARD W JRofficerSale20 @ $27.93$559−0.0% of holding−3.6%+9.8%177,304Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-14Fernandes Nuno S.officerSale7,272 @ $27.11$197K−7.8% of holding−1.4%+9.8%85,459Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-14Axenson Tanya JoyofficerSale6,500 @ $27.17$177K−9.8% of holding−1.4%+9.8%59,785Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-14SUNDERLAND RICHARD W JRofficerSale4,155 @ $27.47$114K−2.2% of holding−1.4%+9.8%183,248Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-14Beckett ThomasdirectorSale3,000 @ $27.70$83K−5.0% of holding−1.4%+9.8%57,253Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-14SUNDERLAND RICHARD W JRofficerSale2,133 @ $27.00$58K−1.1% of holding−1.4%+9.8%187,403Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-08Kenigsberg JamesdirectorSale600 @ $25.67$15K−2.3% of holding−1.4%−0.7%25,832Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-13MacGibbon Craig SofficerSale3,487 @ $21.25$74K−5.2% of holding+14.3%+49.3%63,892Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-10Beckett ThomasdirectorSale3,700 @ $22.07$82K−5.8% of holding+9.2%+32.3%60,253Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-06Kenigsberg JamesdirectorSale600 @ $22.39$13K−2.2% of holding+11.9%+30.1%26,432Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

129 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-12Fernandes Nuno S.officerOption exercise8,80087,375Form 4
2026-08-12Fernandes Nuno S.officerOption exercise8,8008,256Form 4
2026-08-04Kenigsberg JamesdirectorWithheld for tax2,13346,042Form 4
2026-08-03Kenigsberg JamesdirectorAward / grant7,57348,175Form 4
2026-07-01Pianko Daniel S.directorAward / grant1,10735,546Form 4
2026-05-22Kenigsberg JamesdirectorWithheld for tax1,28640,602Form 4
2026-05-22Pianko Daniel S.directorAward / grant2,13534,439Form 4
2026-05-22Braner Michael DaviddirectorAward / grant2,13525,380Form 4
2026-05-22Blevins Granetta B.directorAward / grant2,13560,080Form 4
2026-05-22Fabrega Anna M.directorAward / grant2,13533,431Form 4
2026-05-22Statuto Richard J.directorAward / grant2,1356,775Form 4
2026-04-01Pianko Daniel S.directorAward / grant1,10732,304Form 4
2026-03-10Selden Angela K.directorWithheld for tax12,901626,808Form 4
2026-03-10Beckett ThomasdirectorWithheld for tax2,16964,172Form 4
2026-03-10Fernandes Nuno S.officerWithheld for tax1,80790,675Form 4
2026-03-10Axenson Tanya JoyofficerWithheld for tax1,72969,917Form 4
2026-03-10Gaffney KarmelaofficerWithheld for tax1,46943,227Form 4
2026-03-10Arnold Mark L.officerWithheld for tax1,06720,676Form 4
2026-03-10Selden Angela K.directorAward / grant98,352639,709Form 4
2026-03-10Arnold Mark L.officerAward / grant10,49221,743Form 4
2026-03-10Fernandes Nuno S.officerAward / grant13,77092,482Form 4
2026-03-10Axenson Tanya JoyofficerAward / grant14,42571,646Form 4
2026-03-10Beckett ThomasdirectorAward / grant14,42566,341Form 4
2026-03-10Gaffney KarmelaofficerAward / grant14,42544,696Form 4
2026-02-09Selden Angela K.directorWithheld for tax14,224541,357Form 4
2026-02-09Selden Angela K.directorWithheld for tax11,551555,581Form 4
2026-02-09Fernandes Nuno S.officerWithheld for tax2,03378,712Form 4
2026-02-09Beckett ThomasdirectorWithheld for tax1,89251,916Form 4
2026-02-09Fernandes Nuno S.officerWithheld for tax1,65180,745Form 4
2026-02-09Beckett ThomasdirectorWithheld for tax1,53753,808Form 4
2026-02-09Axenson Tanya JoyofficerWithheld for tax1,16657,221Form 4
2026-02-09Axenson Tanya JoyofficerWithheld for tax94858,387Form 4
2026-02-02Gaffney KarmelaofficerAward / grant5,27730,271Form 4
2026-02-02Selden Angela K.directorAward / grant44,855567,132Form 4
2026-02-02Axenson Tanya JoyofficerAward / grant4,61759,335Form 4
2026-02-02Fernandes Nuno S.officerAward / grant7,25682,396Form 4
2026-02-02Beckett ThomasdirectorAward / grant5,27755,345Form 4
2026-02-02Arnold Mark L.officerAward / grant4,61711,251Form 4
2026-01-31Selden Angela K.directorWithheld for tax11,697522,277Form 4
2026-01-31Selden Angela K.directorWithheld for tax8,039533,974Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.