APDAir Products and Chemicals, Inc.Basic Materials · Chemicals - Specialtyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $287.08 · now $287.08 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, APD has typically landed between $255.67 and $323.77 — a range of −10.9% to +12.8% from the issuance price $287.08.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($287.08) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where APD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $287.08 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$255.67worst · -10.9%$323.77best · +12.8%
  • now $287.08 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $288.28 (+0.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $274.02–$302.55
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $255.67–$323.77
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-11−35.6%−35.6%+1.2%
2008-09-10−34.9%−34.9%+2.2%
2008-09-16−34.3%−35.6%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-05+35.0%+0.0%+35.0%
2009-03-03+32.5%+0.0%+36.7%
2008-12-04+30.6%−0.7%+30.6%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$66.3B
market cap
$9.45
EPS (TTM)
31.5
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-30
next earnings
Revenue$12.0B
'20'25
Net income−$395M
'20'25
Free cash flow−$3.8B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr-3.3%
'20'25
ROE · by yr-2.6%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.23
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 16 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $287.08$-237.76$404.28
  • DCF (intrinsic)$-193.48
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.9× · n=16$225.59
  • Analyst target · range $285.00–$360.00$343.50
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$287.08

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+0.5%
n=18
Feb
47%
−1.5%
n=19
Mar
63%
+2.9%
n=19
Apr
63%
+2.2%
n=19
May
53%
+0.6%
n=19
Jun
53%
+0.8%
n=19
Jul
79%
+4.4%
n=19
Aug
63%
−0.0%
n=19
Sep
42%
−2.0%
n=19
Oct
50%
+0.6%
n=18
Nov
67%
+3.2%
n=18
Dec
61%
+0.2%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$314$2262026-05-01: 1 insider sale, $824K — Schaeffer Melissa N.2026-02-12: 1 insider sale, $19.9M — Mantle Ridge LP2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $397K2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $19.9M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $824K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Schaeffer Melissa N. — Sale on 2026-05-01, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Mantle Ridge LP — Sale on 2026-02-12, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-01Schaeffer Melissa N.directorSale2,714 @ $303.76$824K−16.0% of holding−12.6%not yet — horizon still open14,212Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-12Mantle Ridge LPdirectorSale70,175 @ $284.21$19.9M−42.9% of holding+1.0%−7.2%93,499Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-05Brifo VictoriadirectorSale1,359 @ $292.38$397K−13.5% of holding−4.2%−10.5%8,686Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-03Evans Andrew WdirectorSale5 @ $283.20$1K−50.0% of holding−8.9%−28.3%5Form 4 · filed 232 days after the trade
2025-04-02Evans Andrew WdirectorPurchase5 @ $294.96$1K+100.0% of holding−6.3%−26.3%10Form 4 · filed 233 days after the trade
2025-03-05Nelson Walter L.officerSale589 @ $308.50$182K−45.0% of holding−0.9%−17.8%719Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-20Lefevere KurtofficerSale1,500 @ $316.17$474K−50.6% of holding+0.1%−10.2%1,462Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-18Bols IvoofficerSale18,000 @ $313.82$5.6M−64.1% of holding−0.0%−12.6%10,088Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-18Brifo VictoriadirectorSale2,362 @ $315.82$746K−19.0% of holding−0.0%−12.6%10,045Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-18Mok WilburofficerSale1,300 @ $315.88$411K−28.9% of holding−0.0%−12.6%3,193Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-13Galovich BriandirectorSale2,089 @ $315.79$660K−28.4% of holding+0.8%−12.8%5,278Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-11Hababou AhmedofficerSale1,608 @ $307.97$495K−45.8% of holding+3.5%−10.9%1,906Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-10Schaeffer Melissa N.directorSale3,233 @ $307.32$994K−23.2% of holding+2.5%−12.6%10,680Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-10Maione FrancescoofficerSale2,016 @ $306.00$617K−34.5% of holding+2.5%−12.6%3,834Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-07Major Sean DofficerSale4,500 @ $315.46$1.4M−24.0% of holding+3.5%−13.9%14,273Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

109 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-18LEPORE MATTHEWofficerWithheld for tax4185,160Form 4
2026-06-30Graziano JessicadirectorAward / grant1743,433Form 4
2026-06-30Patel Bhavesh V.directorAward / grant1411,968Form 4
2026-06-30Stern AlfreddirectorAward / grant1011,752Form 4
2026-06-30Smith Wayne ThomasdirectorAward / grant355,218Form 4
2026-06-30CALAWAY TONIT MdirectorAward / grant213,112Form 4
2026-06-30REILLEY DENNIS HdirectorAward / grant182,699Form 4
2026-06-30Evans Andrew WdirectorAward / grant81,248Form 4
2026-06-30Ungerleider Howard IdirectorAward / grant6975Form 4
2026-03-31Graziano JessicadirectorAward / grant1613,259Form 4
2026-03-31Patel Bhavesh V.directorAward / grant1301,827Form 4
2026-03-31Stern AlfreddirectorAward / grant941,650Form 4
2026-03-31Smith Wayne ThomasdirectorAward / grant325,183Form 4
2026-03-31CALAWAY TONIT MdirectorAward / grant193,092Form 4
2026-03-31REILLEY DENNIS HdirectorAward / grant162,681Form 4
2026-03-31Evans Andrew WdirectorAward / grant81,240Form 4
2026-03-31Ungerleider Howard IdirectorAward / grant6969Form 4
2026-02-12Mantle Ridge LPdirectorGift1,75991,740Form 4
2026-02-12Mantle Ridge LPdirectorOther acquisition3,943,847163,674Form 4
2026-01-28Smith Wayne ThomasdirectorAward / grant1,6985,152Form 4
2026-01-28REILLEY DENNIS HdirectorAward / grant1,5052,665Form 4
2026-01-28Evans Andrew WdirectorAward / grant7331,232Form 4
2026-01-28Graziano JessicadirectorAward / grant7333,099Form 4
2026-01-28Patel Bhavesh V.directorAward / grant7331,696Form 4
2026-01-28CALAWAY TONIT MdirectorAward / grant7333,073Form 4
2026-01-28Stern AlfreddirectorAward / grant7331,557Form 4
2026-01-28Ungerleider Howard IdirectorAward / grant733963Form 4
2025-12-31Graziano JessicadirectorAward / grant1812,365Form 4
2025-12-31Patel Bhavesh V.directorAward / grant146963Form 4
2025-12-31Stern AlfreddirectorAward / grant104824Form 4
2025-12-31Davis Lisa AnndirectorAward / grant263,608Form 4
2025-12-31Smith Wayne ThomasdirectorAward / grant253,453Form 4
2025-12-31CALAWAY TONIT MdirectorAward / grant172,339Form 4
2025-12-31REILLEY DENNIS HdirectorAward / grant81,160Form 4
2025-12-31Evans Andrew WdirectorAward / grant4499Form 4
2025-12-31Ungerleider Howard IdirectorAward / grant2230Form 4
2025-12-03Lefevere KurtofficerWithheld for tax803,334Form 4
2025-12-03Lefevere KurtofficerWithheld for tax653,414Form 4
2025-12-03Lefevere KurtofficerAward / grant1443,479Form 4
2025-12-03Menezes Eduardo FofficerOther acquisition3838Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-16$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Josh GottheimerHousepurchase2026-04-082026-03-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-13$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2026-01-152025-12-18$1–15K
Josh GottheimerHousesale2026-01-142025-12-08$15–50K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-12-112025-11-13$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.