Issued 2026-09-16 at $18.60 · now $18.60 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, APC has typically landed between $16.54 and $21.62 — a range of −11.1% to +16.3% from the issuance price $18.60.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
118 overlapping 1 month windows · 2026-02-10 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($18.60) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where APC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $18.6 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $18.6 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $18.64 (+0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $17.82–$19.45
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $16.54–$21.62
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-07-16 | −13.3% | −13.3% | +2.2% |
| 2026-05-20 | −13.1% | −13.5% | +0.0% |
| 2026-05-19 | −12.2% | −12.2% | +1.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-21 | +18.4% | −0.6% | +20.1% |
| 2026-04-22 | +16.5% | −0.3% | +20.4% |
| 2026-04-13 | +16.3% | −3.7% | +16.3% |
118 overlapping windows · 2026-02-10 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | Blackstone Holdings I L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 25,000 @ $19.00 | $475K | −16.7% of holding | −1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 125,000 | Form 4 · filed 70 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | FRIEDMAN AVRAM Z | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $18.00 | $360K | ownership Δ n/a | +6.5% | −9.2% | 20,000 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Blackstone Holdings I L.P. | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 100,000 @ $17.66 | $1.8M | −40.0% of holding | +8.3% | −8.2% | 150,000 | Form 4 · filed 89 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
9 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | FRIEDMAN AVRAM Z | director | Award / grant | 1,029 | 28,588 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | HEYER ANDREW R | director | Award / grant | 1,029 | 8,588 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Maurer Carlos A. | director | Award / grant | 480 | 6,458 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Rogers Kirk T. | director | Award / grant | 274 | 6,046 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Rogers Kirk T. | director | Award / grant | 5,772 | 5,772 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | FRIEDMAN AVRAM Z | director | Award / grant | 7,559 | 27,559 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Edmiston Sherman III | director | Award / grant | 5,497 | 5,497 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Maurer Carlos A. | director | Award / grant | 5,978 | 5,978 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | HEYER ANDREW R | director | Award / grant | 7,559 | 7,559 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donna Shalala | House | purchase | 2020-04-27 | 2019-02-15 | $1–15K |
| Donna Shalala | House | sale | 2020-04-27 | 2019-06-24 | $1–15K |
| Nicholas Van Taylor | House | sale | 2019-09-05 | 2019-08-23 | $1–15K |
| Nicholas Van Taylor | House | exchange | 2019-09-05 | 2019-08-09 | $15–50K |
| Katherine M. Clark | House | sale | 2019-07-22 | 2019-06-04 | $1–15K |
| Katherine M. Clark | House | sale | 2019-07-22 | 2019-06-04 | $1–15K |
| Katherine M. Clark | House | sale | 2019-06-26 | 2019-05-12 | $1–15K |
| Jacky Rosen | Senate | sale | 2019-05-09 | 2019-04-15 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2019-04-11 | 2019-03-26 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2019-03-08 | 2019-02-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2019-03-08 | 2019-02-20 | $1–15K |
| Katherine M. Clark | House | purchase | 2019-02-28 | 2019-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2019-02-12 | 2019-01-14 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2019-02-12 | 2019-01-18 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.