APAAPA CorporationEnergy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Productionas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $44.79 · now $44.79 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, APA has typically landed between $37.31 and $54.93 — a range of −16.7% to +22.6% from the issuance price $44.79.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($44.79) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where APA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $44.79 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$37.31worst · -16.7%$54.93best · +22.6%
  • now $44.79 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $45.12 (+0.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $41.14–$49.1
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $37.31–$54.93
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−84.8%−84.8%+0.0%
2020-02-18−84.2%−84.2%+1.7%
2020-03-03−83.9%−83.9%+0.6%
3 best
2020-03-30+218.9%−2.0%+218.9%
2020-03-31+214.4%−3.7%+214.4%
2020-04-01+181.3%+0.0%+226.3%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$12.8B
market cap
$4.29
EPS (TTM)
8.4
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-05
next earnings
Revenue$8.9B
'20'25
Net income$1.4B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.8B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr16.1%
'20'25
ROE · by yr23.5%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.79
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 22 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $44.79$20.22$104.03
  • DCF (intrinsic)$98.25
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 20.3× · n=22$86.97
  • Analyst target · range $26.00–$50.00$39.50
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$44.79

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
61%
+2.9%
n=18
Feb
47%
−0.4%
n=19
Mar
63%
+1.4%
n=19
Apr
58%
+12.7%
n=19
May
37%
−2.7%
n=19
Jun
58%
+1.5%
n=19
Jul
58%
+1.4%
n=19
Aug
42%
−0.9%
n=19
Sep
53%
−0.6%
n=19
Oct
39%
−0.2%
n=18
Nov
56%
+2.6%
n=18
Dec
44%
−0.5%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$47$202026-05-20: 1 insider sale, $392K — Maddox Mark D2026-03-18: 1 insider sale, $833K — Bob Matthew Regis2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $833K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $392K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Maddox Mark D — Sale on 2026-05-20, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Bob Matthew Regis — Sale on 2026-03-18, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-20Maddox Mark DofficerSale9,800 @ $40.04$392K−12.8% of holding−13.7%not yet — horizon still open66,810Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-18Bob Matthew RegisdirectorSale23,000 @ $36.23$833K−77.6% of holding−10.0%not yet — horizon still open6,634Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

298 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-30STOVER DAVID LdirectorAward / grant1,53531,396Form 4
2026-06-30Joung ChansoodirectorAward / grant1,535244,742Form 4
2026-06-30Hooper Charles WdirectorAward / grant1,53531,689Form 4
2026-06-30Bay Annell RdirectorAward / grant1,535103,725Form 4
2026-06-30Weaving AnyadirectorAward / grant1,53518,597Form 4
2026-06-30Fisher Kenneth M.directorAward / grant1,53513,977Form 4
2026-06-30Ragauss Peter AdirectorAward / grant1,535101,859Form 4
2026-06-30Ellis Juliet SdirectorAward / grant1,53589,323Form 4
2026-06-30McKay LamardirectorAward / grant2,30255,702Form 4
2026-05-26Henderson Tracey KofficerWithheld for tax1,96853,758Form 4
2026-05-26Henderson Tracey KofficerOption exercise5,00055,726Form 4
2026-05-26Henderson Tracey KofficerOption exercise5,00057,968Form 4
2026-05-20Maddox Mark DofficerDiscretionary15,50021,796Form 4
2026-03-31Weaving AnyadirectorAward / grant1,17816,953Form 4
2026-03-31Bay Annell RdirectorAward / grant1,178101,536Form 4
2026-03-31Bob Matthew RegisdirectorAward / grant1,17823,587Form 4
2026-03-31STOVER DAVID LdirectorAward / grant1,17829,670Form 4
2026-03-31Joung ChansoodirectorAward / grant1,178242,549Form 4
2026-03-31Ragauss Peter AdirectorAward / grant1,17899,682Form 4
2026-03-31Fisher Kenneth M.directorAward / grant1,17812,362Form 4
2026-03-31Ellis Juliet SdirectorAward / grant1,17887,306Form 4
2026-03-31McKay LamardirectorAward / grant1,76753,058Form 4
2026-03-31Hooper Charles WdirectorAward / grant1,17829,961Form 4
2026-02-27Maddox Mark DofficerAward / grant366,296Form 4
2026-02-27Rayphole Robert P.officerAward / grant61,589Form 4
2026-02-25Maddox Mark DofficerAward / grant4506,260Form 4
2026-02-25Rayphole Robert P.officerAward / grant311,583Form 4
2026-02-12Maddox Mark DofficerAward / grant9675,811Form 4
2026-02-12Rayphole Robert P.officerAward / grant181,553Form 4
2026-02-01CHRISTMANN JOHN JdirectorWithheld for tax10,514643,563Form 4
2026-02-01Riney Stephen JofficerWithheld for tax5,98221,564Form 4
2026-02-01Warnica Kimberly O.directorWithheld for tax2,6163,365Form 4
2026-02-01Maddox Mark DofficerWithheld for tax2,42476,610Form 4
2026-02-01Henderson Tracey KofficerWithheld for tax2,42450,726Form 4
2026-02-01Rodgers Ben CofficerWithheld for tax1,66241,257Form 4
2026-02-01Maddox Mark DofficerOption exercise6,15879,034Form 4
2026-02-01Maddox Mark DofficerOption exercise6,15854,041Form 4
2026-02-01Rodgers Ben CofficerOption exercise4,22228,867Form 4
2026-02-01Henderson Tracey KofficerOption exercise6,15853,150Form 4
2026-02-01CHRISTMANN JOHN JdirectorGift1,438642,125Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'25 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-02-132026-01-09$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2025-09-122025-08-05$1–15K
Pete RickettsSenatesale2023-10-202023-09-21$50–100K
Kathy ManningHousesale2022-09-142022-08-03$1–15K
Kathy ManningHousepurchase2022-08-102022-07-20$1–15K
Lois FrankelHousesale2019-01-282018-12-26$1–15K
Lois FrankelHousesale2018-08-242018-08-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2018-03-092018-02-27$1–15K
Lois FrankelHousepurchase2018-01-232018-01-04$1–15K
Lois FrankelHousepurchase2018-01-232018-01-05$1–15K
Patty MurraySenatesale2017-06-222017-06-15$1–15K
Patty MurraySenatepurchase2017-03-212017-03-16$1–15K
Thad CochranSenatesale2017-03-102017-02-23$1–15K
Richard L. HannaHousesale2017-01-182016-12-28$15–50K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.