AP · TickerCove

APAmpco-Pittsburgh Corp.Industrials · Manufacturing - Metal Fabricationas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $8.11 · now $8.11 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AP has typically landed between $6.24 and $11.13 — a range of −23.1% to +37.3% from the issuance price $8.11.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,002 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($8.11) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$8.11 · 60% of range

$1.85 low$12.2 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.7%

typical move · IQR 24.9%

−23.1%worst (p90)+37.3%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where AP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $8.11 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $8.11 (+0.0%)
typical $8.05 (-0.7%)
middle 50% $7.04–$9.06
90% range $6.24–$11.13

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,002 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2009-02-03	−57.8%	−57.8%	+8.8%
2009-01-29	−56.6%	−56.6%	+8.0%
2009-01-30	−55.2%	−55.2%	+13.8%
3 best
2025-12-01	+114.9%	+0.0%	+123.4%
2025-11-28	+113.9%	−4.2%	+113.9%
2024-06-26	+106.4%	−3.9%	+135.8%

5,002 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

+1.7%

n=20

Feb

50%

+1.0%

n=20

Mar

40%

−2.7%

n=20

Apr

65%

+14.4%

n=20

May

55%

−0.1%

n=20

Jun

25%

−7.1%

n=20

Jul

55%

+6.9%

n=20

Aug

40%

−3.7%

n=20

Sep

35%

−4.4%

n=20

Oct

60%

+0.3%

n=20

Nov

50%

+1.7%

n=20

Dec

50%

+5.8%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-25	Lyon Samuel	officer	Sale	9,500 @ $9.82	$93K	−5.0% of holding	−11.6%	not yet — horizon still open	181,233	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-18	Lyon Samuel	officer	Sale	547 @ $11.30	$6K	−0.3% of holding	−22.6%	not yet — horizon still open	190,733	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-19	McBrayer Brett	director	Purchase	3,300 @ $9.03	$30K	+0.6% of holding	+18.6%	not yet — horizon still open	557,694	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-19	McBrayer Brett	director	Purchase	7,500 @ $6.67	$50K	+1.3% of holding	+33.6%	not yet — horizon still open	585,731	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-01	McBrayer Brett	director	Purchase	19,000 @ $2.58	$49K	+4.4% of holding	+114.4%	+360.3%	448,631	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-19	McNair Darrell L	director	Purchase	3,000 @ $2.52	$8K	+4.9% of holding	+56.8%	+283.7%	63,912	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-17	Louis Berkman Investment CO	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	93,000 @ $2.67	$248K	+3.1% of holding	+31.6%	+245.8%	3,127,792	Form 4 · filed 9 days after the trade
2025-11-17	GERMAN MICHAEL I	director	Purchase	40,000 @ $2.65	$106K	+22.0% of holding	+31.6%	+245.8%	221,670	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-17	McNair Darrell L	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $2.68	$27K	+19.6% of holding	+31.6%	+245.8%	60,912	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-25	Fessenden Elizabeth Anne	director	Purchase	1,380 @ $2.16	$3K	+1.3% of holding	+3.1%	−11.7%	106,602	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-24	Fessenden Elizabeth Anne	director	Purchase	1,380 @ $2.22	$3K	+1.3% of holding	−2.1%	−7.3%	104,202	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-24	Fessenden Elizabeth Anne	director	Purchase	720 @ $2.25	$2K	+0.7% of holding	−2.1%	−7.3%	104,922	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-24	Fessenden Elizabeth Anne	director	Purchase	300 @ $2.27	$681	+0.3% of holding	−2.1%	−7.3%	105,222	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

51 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-27	McNair Darrell L	director	Gift	5,600	65,686	Form 4
2026-05-15	McBrayer Brett	director	Withheld for tax	46,656	513,334	Form 4
2026-05-15	Lyon Samuel	officer	Withheld for tax	18,185	176,224	Form 4
2026-05-15	McBrayer Brett	director	Withheld for tax	9,396	576,335	Form 4
2026-05-15	McBrayer Brett	director	Withheld for tax	8,568	567,767	Form 4
2026-05-15	Anderson David George	officer	Withheld for tax	8,216	71,849	Form 4
2026-05-15	McBrayer Brett	director	Withheld for tax	7,777	559,990	Form 4
2026-05-15	Lyon Samuel	officer	Withheld for tax	3,547	194,409	Form 4
2026-05-15	Lyon Samuel	officer	Withheld for tax	3,166	197,956	Form 4
2026-05-15	Lyon Samuel	officer	Withheld for tax	3,029	201,122	Form 4
2026-05-15	Anderson David George	officer	Withheld for tax	2,489	80,065	Form 4
2026-05-15	Anderson David George	officer	Withheld for tax	2,179	82,554	Form 4
2026-05-15	Anderson David George	officer	Withheld for tax	1,370	84,733	Form 4
2026-05-15	Lyon Samuel	officer	Award / grant	15,056	191,280	Form 4
2026-05-15	Anderson David George	officer	Award / grant	11,117	82,966	Form 4
2026-05-15	McBrayer Brett	director	Award / grant	41,060	554,394	Form 4
2026-05-15	Fessenden Elizabeth Anne	director	Award / grant	7,374	126,704	Form 4
2026-05-15	GERMAN MICHAEL I	director	Award / grant	7,374	229,044	Form 4
2026-05-15	McNair Darrell L	director	Award / grant	7,374	71,286	Form 4
2026-05-15	DeMichiei Robert	director	Award / grant	7,374	85,559	Form 4
2026-05-15	LIEBERMAN WILLIAM K	director	Award / grant	7,374	58,286	Form 4
2026-05-15	PAUL LAURENCE E	director	Award / grant	7,374	91,742	Form 4
2026-03-04	McBrayer Brett	director	Award / grant	129,600	578,231	Form 4
2026-03-04	Lyon Samuel	officer	Award / grant	42,240	204,151	Form 4
2026-03-04	Anderson David George	officer	Award / grant	19,800	86,103	Form 4
2025-05-15	McBrayer Brett	director	Withheld for tax	11,542	351,331	Form 4
2025-05-15	McBrayer Brett	director	Withheld for tax	10,474	362,873	Form 4
2025-05-15	Lyon Samuel	officer	Withheld for tax	3,375	137,176	Form 4
2025-05-15	McAuley Michael G	officer	Withheld for tax	2,278	149,036	Form 4
2025-05-15	McAuley Michael G	officer	Withheld for tax	2,052	151,314	Form 4
2025-05-15	Anderson David George	officer	Withheld for tax	1,496	48,303	Form 4
2025-05-15	Anderson David George	officer	Withheld for tax	942	49,799	Form 4
2025-05-15	ABEL JAMES J	director	Award / grant	12,728	150,546	Form 4
2025-05-15	DeMichiei Robert	director	Award / grant	12,728	78,185	Form 4
2025-05-15	GERMAN MICHAEL I	director	Award / grant	12,728	181,670	Form 4
2025-05-15	LIEBERMAN WILLIAM K	director	Award / grant	12,728	50,912	Form 4
2025-05-15	PAUL LAURENCE E	director	Award / grant	12,728	84,368	Form 4
2025-05-15	Fessenden Elizabeth Anne	director	Award / grant	12,728	119,330	Form 4
2025-05-15	Anderson David George	officer	Award / grant	18,000	66,303	Form 4
2025-05-15	Anderson David George	officer	Award / grant	18,546	18,546	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i