AOUTAmerican Outdoor Brands, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Leisureas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $15.44 · now $15.44 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AOUT has typically landed between $12.53 and $18.38 — a range of −18.8% to +19.0% from the issuance price $15.44.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,503 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-08-21 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($15.44) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AOUT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $15.44 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$12.53worst · -18.8%$18.38best · +19.0%
  • now $15.44 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $15.25 (-1.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $14.02–$16.48
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $12.53–$18.38
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,503 windows spanning 2020-08-21 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-08-24−34.2%−34.2%+0.0%
2020-08-26−30.4%−32.5%+0.0%
2025-03-06−28.3%−28.3%+0.0%
3 best
2024-11-12+70.0%+0.0%+70.0%
2024-11-11+67.2%+0.0%+67.2%
2024-11-15+66.5%−0.8%+67.4%

1,503 overlapping windows · 2020-08-21 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
83%
+5.2%
n=6
Feb
33%
−4.6%
n=6
Mar
67%
+1.3%
n=6
Apr
33%
−4.8%
n=6
May
67%
+2.0%
n=6
Jun
67%
+4.6%
n=6
Jul
50%
−5.3%
n=6
Aug
67%
+1.8%
n=6
Sep
29%
+0.7%
n=7
Oct
33%
−4.5%
n=6
Nov
67%
+2.9%
n=6
Dec
67%
+12.3%
n=6

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$16$62025-09-23: 2 insider purchases, $44K — Murphy Brian Daniel, Fulmer Hugh Andrew2025-09: 2 open-market purchases, $44K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Murphy Brian Daniel — Purchase on 2025-09-23, filed same dayofficer Fulmer Hugh Andrew — Purchase on 2025-09-23, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-09-23Murphy Brian DanieldirectorPurchase2,500 @ $8.83$22K+0.7% of holding−15.8%+6.4%345,220Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-23Fulmer Hugh AndrewofficerPurchase2,500 @ $8.77$22K+1.7% of holding−15.8%+6.4%145,358Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

71 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-04Leary Kevin DanieldirectorAward / grant6,75113,414Form 4
2026-07-09Murphy Brian DanieldirectorWithheld for tax4,754387,136Form 4
2026-07-09Fulmer Hugh AndrewofficerWithheld for tax1,304159,216Form 4
2026-07-09Vulgamott Brent AlanofficerWithheld for tax90373,241Form 4
2026-07-09Tayon James EarlofficerWithheld for tax79557,810Form 4
2026-06-15Tayon James EarlofficerWithheld for tax2,33358,605Form 4
2026-06-15Vulgamott Brent AlanofficerWithheld for tax2,31274,144Form 4
2026-05-27Vulgamott Brent AlanofficerAward / grant11,20676,456Form 4
2026-05-27Fulmer Hugh AndrewofficerAward / grant16,009160,520Form 4
2026-05-27Tayon James EarlofficerAward / grant9,87260,938Form 4
2026-05-27Murphy Brian DanieldirectorAward / grant58,698391,890Form 4
2026-05-27Fulmer Hugh AndrewofficerAward / grant32,01632,016Form 4
2026-05-27Murphy Brian DanieldirectorAward / grant117,394117,394Form 4
2026-05-27Tayon James EarlofficerAward / grant19,74219,742Form 4
2026-05-27Vulgamott Brent AlanofficerAward / grant22,41022,410Form 4
2026-05-27Tayon James EarlofficerAward / grant19,74219,742Form 4
2026-05-27Murphy Brian DanieldirectorAward / grant117,394117,394Form 4
2026-05-27Fulmer Hugh AndrewofficerAward / grant32,01632,016Form 4
2026-05-27Vulgamott Brent AlanofficerAward / grant22,41022,410Form 4
2026-05-02Murphy Brian DanieldirectorWithheld for tax2,982333,192Form 4
2026-05-02Fulmer Hugh AndrewofficerWithheld for tax817144,511Form 4
2026-05-01Murphy Brian DanieldirectorWithheld for tax4,694336,174Form 4
2026-05-01Murphy Brian DanieldirectorWithheld for tax4,352340,868Form 4
2026-05-01Fulmer Hugh AndrewofficerWithheld for tax1,380146,613Form 4
2026-05-01Fulmer Hugh AndrewofficerWithheld for tax1,285145,328Form 4
2026-05-01Vulgamott Brent AlanofficerWithheld for tax75665,250Form 4
2026-05-01Tayon James EarlofficerWithheld for tax63051,066Form 4
2026-05-01Vulgamott Brent AlanofficerWithheld for tax23266,006Form 4
2025-09-30Favreau Bradley ThededirectorAward / grant9,16360,614Form 4
2025-09-30MONHEIT BARRY MdirectorAward / grant9,16364,117Form 4
2025-09-30GALLAGHER MARY EdirectorAward / grant9,16359,550Form 4
2025-09-30Gluchowski Gregory J. Jr.directorAward / grant9,16386,876Form 4
2025-09-30Marconi Luis GdirectorAward / grant9,16344,818Form 4
2025-07-08Murphy Brian DanieldirectorWithheld for tax36,187293,860Form 4
2025-07-08Fulmer Hugh AndrewofficerWithheld for tax6,545129,533Form 4
2025-07-08Fulmer Hugh AndrewofficerOption exercise22,404136,078Form 4
2025-07-08Murphy Brian DanieldirectorAward / grant48,860342,720Form 4
2025-07-08Murphy Brian DanieldirectorOption exercise82,150330,047Form 4
2025-07-08Vulgamott Brent AlanofficerAward / grant9,32765,822Form 4
2025-07-08Fulmer Hugh AndrewofficerAward / grant13,325142,858Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.