AOSA. O. Smith CorporationIndustrials · Industrial - Machineryas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $56.89 · now $56.89 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AOS has typically landed between $50.73 and $63.90 — a range of −10.8% to +12.3% from the issuance price $56.89.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($56.89) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AOS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $56.89 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$50.73worst · -10.8%$63.9best · +12.3%
  • now $56.89 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $56.97 (+0.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $54.11–$59.84
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $50.73–$63.9
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-18−34.6%−36.8%+0.0%
2008-09-26−33.9%−33.9%+0.0%
2008-09-25−31.7%−31.7%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-11+34.8%+0.0%+34.8%
2008-07-11+32.0%+0.0%+32.0%
2009-06-23+31.6%+0.0%+31.6%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$8.5B
market cap
$3.76
EPS (TTM)
16.2
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-30
next earnings
Revenue$3.8B
'20'25
Net income$546M
'20'25
Free cash flow$546M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr14.3%
'20'25
ROE · by yr29.4%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.10
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $56.89$52.22$119.92
  • DCF (intrinsic)$83.91
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$115.26
  • Analyst target · range $67.00–$76.00$70.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$56.89

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+1.8%
n=18
Feb
63%
+1.5%
n=19
Mar
53%
+1.3%
n=19
Apr
47%
+1.3%
n=19
May
58%
+0.3%
n=19
Jun
68%
+2.1%
n=19
Jul
68%
+4.7%
n=19
Aug
53%
−0.2%
n=19
Sep
58%
−1.1%
n=19
Oct
56%
+2.5%
n=18
Nov
83%
+4.8%
n=18
Dec
39%
−1.2%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$80$562026-03-04: 1 insider sale, $82K — Schuh Darrell W.2026-02-13: 1 insider sale, $28K — Schuh Darrell W.2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $1.2M2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $28K2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $82K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Schuh Darrell W. — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed same dayofficer Schuh Darrell W. — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-03-04Schuh Darrell W.officerSale1,104 @ $74.39$82K−33.4% of holding−8.3%−31.0%2,201Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-13Schuh Darrell W.officerSale356 @ $79.89$28K−9.8% of holding−16.7%−37.2%3,295Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-07STERN JAMES FdirectorSale17,434 @ $71.24$1.2M−15.0% of holding+2.1%+3.1%98,784Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-30Wheeler Kevin J.directorSale22,200 @ $71.26$1.6M−18.1% of holding−0.7%−5.7%100,647Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-29SMITH MARK DdirectorSale2,400 @ $71.36$171K−2.0% of holding−0.2%−12.1%116,242Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-27Carver Samuel M.officerSale3,460 @ $66.51$230K−100.0% of holding+4.2%−1.9%0Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-07Heideman Robert JofficerSale1,026 @ $65.65$67K−10.3% of holding+10.5%+2.8%8,889Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-07Karge Douglas SamuelofficerSale419 @ $65.65$28K−13.2% of holding+10.5%+2.8%2,749Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

126 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-01Anderson Carrie LdirectorAward / grant32,06032,060Form 4
2026-04-13MAPES CHRISTOPHER LdirectorAward / grant2,2628,684Form 4
2026-04-13Kadri IlhamdirectorAward / grant2,26223,579Form 4
2026-04-13MARTIN LOIS MdirectorAward / grant2,2626,445Form 4
2026-04-13SMITH MARK DdirectorAward / grant2,262118,504Form 4
2026-04-13Larsen Michael MdirectorAward / grant2,26213,284Form 4
2026-04-13Fister Todd WdirectorAward / grant2,2626,356Form 4
2026-04-13Saak Aaron WdirectorAward / grant2,2622,262Form 4
2026-04-13HOLT VICTORIA MdirectorAward / grant2,26213,284Form 4
2026-02-23Carver Samuel M.officerGift1,1442,713Form 4
2026-02-23Carver Samuel M.officerGift1,1442,713Form 4
2026-02-13Wheeler Kevin J.directorWithheld for tax16,942119,750Form 4
2026-02-13Wheeler Kevin J.directorAward / grant8,598128,348Form 4
2026-02-13Lauber Charles TdirectorWithheld for tax4,44744,865Form 4
2026-02-13STERN JAMES FdirectorWithheld for tax3,22099,914Form 4
2026-02-13Lauber Charles TdirectorAward / grant2,25447,119Form 4
2026-02-13STERN JAMES FdirectorAward / grant1,633101,547Form 4
2026-02-13Carver Samuel M.officerWithheld for tax1,0263,148Form 4
2026-02-13Carver Samuel M.officerAward / grant7093,857Form 4
2026-02-13Karge Douglas SamuelofficerWithheld for tax6663,552Form 4
2026-02-13Otchere Benjamin AofficerWithheld for tax5452,148Form 4
2026-02-13Karge Douglas SamuelofficerAward / grant3383,890Form 4
2026-02-13O'Brien Stephen D.officerOption exercise2,9050Form 4
2026-02-13Otchere Benjamin AofficerOption exercise1,4600Form 4
2026-02-13Lauber Charles TdirectorOption exercise9,46049,312Form 4
2026-02-13O'Brien Stephen D.officerAward / grant7916,510Form 4
2026-02-13Qiu JackofficerOption exercise3,2750Form 4
2026-02-13Schuh Darrell W.officerOption exercise1,4603,651Form 4
2026-02-13O'Brien Stephen D.officerWithheld for tax1,1445,719Form 4
2026-02-13Schuh Darrell W.officerOption exercise1,4600Form 4
2026-02-13Otchere Benjamin AofficerOption exercise1,4602,693Form 4
2026-02-13STERN JAMES FdirectorOption exercise6,850103,134Form 4
2026-02-13O'Brien Stephen D.officerOption exercise2,9056,863Form 4
2026-02-13Kulkarni ParagofficerOption exercise1,1157,605Form 4
2026-02-13STERN JAMES FdirectorOption exercise6,8500Form 4
2026-02-13Wheeler Kevin J.directorOption exercise36,045136,692Form 4
2026-02-13Lauber Charles TdirectorOption exercise9,4600Form 4
2026-02-13Carver Samuel M.officerOption exercise2,6054,174Form 4
2026-02-13Wheeler Kevin J.directorOption exercise36,0450Form 4
2026-02-13Karge Douglas SamuelofficerOption exercise1,4154,218Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-10-072025-09-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-07-092025-06-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-05-122025-04-09$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousesale2025-05-022025-04-10$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousesale2025-05-022025-04-16$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-04-102025-03-12$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-04-102025-03-06$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousesale2025-04-022025-03-06$1–15K
Rob BresnahanHousesale2025-03-272025-02-25$1–15K
April Mcclain DelaneyHousesale2025-03-202025-02-18$15–50K
Jared MoskowitzHousesale2024-12-092024-11-08$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2024-12-052024-11-12$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.