AONAon plcFinancial Services · Insurance - Brokersas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $300.57 · now $300.57 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AON has typically landed between $271.76 and $328.75 — a range of −9.6% to +9.4% from the issuance price $300.57.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($300.57) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AON has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $300.57 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$271.76worst · -9.6%$328.75best · +9.4%
  • now $300.57 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $302.32 (+0.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $289.64–$314.99
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $271.76–$328.75
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−37.2%−37.2%+0.0%
2020-02-19−36.4%−36.4%+0.0%
2020-02-20−36.2%−36.2%+0.0%
3 best
2008-10-27+29.1%+0.0%+29.1%
2008-10-24+27.3%−0.9%+27.3%
2011-09-28+27.2%+0.0%+27.2%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$77.3B
market cap
$18.22
EPS (TTM)
19.9
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-29
next earnings
Revenue$17.2B
'20'25
Net income$3.7B
'20'25
Free cash flow$3.2B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr21.5%
'20'25
ROE · by yr39.5%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.77
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $300.57$286.76$456.72
  • DCF (intrinsic)$368.78
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$298.48
  • Analyst target · range $377.00–$445.00$395.50
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$300.57

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
−0.1%
n=18
Feb
68%
+4.2%
n=19
Mar
63%
+0.8%
n=19
Apr
63%
+0.4%
n=19
May
53%
+0.6%
n=19
Jun
47%
+0.5%
n=19
Jul
68%
+2.6%
n=19
Aug
63%
+1.0%
n=19
Sep
47%
−0.2%
n=19
Oct
56%
+1.1%
n=18
Nov
83%
+3.7%
n=18
Dec
44%
−1.0%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$380$3012026-09-02: 6 insider purchases, $6.5M — KNIGHT LESTER B …2026-07-28: 3 insider sales, $718K — Zeidel Darren …2026-07-17: 3 insider sales, $726K — Zeidel Darren …2026-07-07: 1 insider sale, $216K — Zeidel Darren2026-02-26: 1 insider sale, $1.4M — Zeidel Darren2026-02-17: 1 insider sale, $1.6M — Zeidel Darren2026-02-10: 1 insider purchase, $1.3M — KNIGHT LESTER B2025-11-05: 2 insider sales, $3.0M — Zeidel Darren …2025-11: 2 open-market sales, $3.0M2026-02: 1 open-market purchase, $1.3M2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $3.1M2026-07: 7 open-market sales, $1.7M2026-09: 6 open-market purchases, $6.5M↑ buys↓ salesdirector KNIGHT LESTER B — Purchase on 2026-09-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector KNIGHT LESTER B — Purchase on 2026-09-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector KNIGHT LESTER B — Purchase on 2026-09-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector KNIGHT LESTER B — Purchase on 2026-09-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector KNIGHT LESTER B — Purchase on 2026-09-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector KNIGHT LESTER B — Purchase on 2026-09-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Zeidel Darren — Sale on 2026-07-28, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Zeidel Darren — Sale on 2026-07-28, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Zeidel Darren — Sale on 2026-07-28, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Zeidel Darren — Sale on 2026-07-17, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Zeidel Darren — Sale on 2026-07-17, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Zeidel Darren — Sale on 2026-07-17, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Zeidel Darren — Sale on 2026-07-07, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Zeidel Darren — Sale on 2026-02-26, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Zeidel Darren — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector KNIGHT LESTER B — Purchase on 2026-02-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Zeidel Darren — Sale on 2025-11-05, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Zeidel Darren — Sale on 2025-11-05, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-02KNIGHT LESTER BdirectorPurchase7,212 @ $327.52$2.4M+4.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open157,048Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-02KNIGHT LESTER BdirectorPurchase5,097 @ $326.53$1.7M+3.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open149,836Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-02KNIGHT LESTER BdirectorPurchase4,145 @ $328.34$1.4M+2.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open161,193Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-02KNIGHT LESTER BdirectorPurchase1,739 @ $325.63$566K+1.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open144,739Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-02KNIGHT LESTER BdirectorPurchase1,440 @ $329.69$475K+0.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open162,633Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-02KNIGHT LESTER BdirectorPurchase367 @ $330.51$121K+0.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open163,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-28Zeidel DarrenofficerSale725 @ $378.00$274K−5.7% of holding−10.3%not yet — horizon still open11,979Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-28Zeidel DarrenofficerSale700 @ $376.00$263K−5.2% of holding−10.3%not yet — horizon still open12,704Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-28Zeidel DarrenofficerSale475 @ $380.00$181K−4.0% of holding−10.3%not yet — horizon still open11,504Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-17Zeidel DarrenofficerSale675 @ $374.00$252K−4.8% of holding−9.4%not yet — horizon still open13,404Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-17Zeidel DarrenofficerSale650 @ $372.00$242K−4.4% of holding−9.4%not yet — horizon still open14,079Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-17Zeidel DarrenofficerSale625 @ $370.00$231K−4.1% of holding−9.4%not yet — horizon still open14,729Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-07Zeidel DarrenofficerSale600 @ $360.00$216K−3.8% of holding−2.9%not yet — horizon still open15,354Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-26Zeidel DarrenofficerSale4,300 @ $329.72$1.4M−21.2% of holding+2.7%−6.3%15,954Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-17Zeidel DarrenofficerSale5,040 @ $325.79$1.6M−19.9% of holding+0.7%−7.4%20,254Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-10KNIGHT LESTER BdirectorPurchase4,000 @ $319.24$1.3M+2.9% of holding+3.1%−1.1%143,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-05Zeidel DarrenofficerSale7,570 @ $344.42$2.6M−26.1% of holding−0.2%−17.5%21,483Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-05Zeidel DarrenofficerSale1,230 @ $345.17$425K−5.7% of holding−0.2%−17.5%20,253Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

262 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-01Reese EdmundofficerWithheld for tax2,1983,901Form 4
2026-07-01Reese EdmundofficerOption exercise3,9753,975Form 4
2026-07-01Reese EdmundofficerOption exercise3,9756,099Form 4
2026-07-01Reese EdmundofficerOption exercise3,9756,099Form 4
2026-06-25Cai Jin-YongdirectorWithheld for tax3977,845Form 4
2026-06-25Alvarez Jose AntoniodirectorWithheld for tax3721,270Form 4
2026-06-25CAMPBELL JEFFREY CdirectorWithheld for tax18612,621Form 4
2026-06-25STAVRIDIS JAMES G.directorWithheld for tax1861,377Form 4
2026-06-25Spruell ByrondirectorWithheld for tax1866,377Form 4
2026-06-25Jenkins Jo AnndirectorWithheld for tax186874Form 4
2026-06-25FRANCIS CHERYL AdirectorWithheld for tax18629,294Form 4
2026-06-25SANTONA GLORIAdirectorWithheld for tax18622,462Form 4
2026-06-25SMITH SARAH GdirectorWithheld for tax1862,114Form 4
2026-06-25Karaboutis AdrianadirectorWithheld for tax1862,606Form 4
2026-06-25NOTEBAERT RICHARD CdirectorWithheld for tax18628,328Form 4
2026-06-25CAMPBELL JEFFREY CdirectorAward / grant77612,807Form 4
2026-06-25SMITH SARAH GdirectorAward / grant7762,300Form 4
2026-06-25FRANCIS CHERYL AdirectorAward / grant77629,480Form 4
2026-06-25Jenkins Jo AnndirectorAward / grant7761,060Form 4
2026-06-25KNIGHT LESTER BdirectorAward / grant1,4885,227Form 4
2026-06-25Karaboutis AdrianadirectorAward / grant7762,792Form 4
2026-06-25NOTEBAERT RICHARD CdirectorAward / grant77628,514Form 4
2026-06-25SANTONA GLORIAdirectorAward / grant77622,648Form 4
2026-06-25SMITH SARAH GdirectorAward / grant7762,300Form 4
2026-06-25STAVRIDIS JAMES G.directorAward / grant7761,564Form 4
2026-06-25Spruell ByrondirectorAward / grant7766,563Form 4
2026-06-25Alvarez Jose AntoniodirectorAward / grant7761,643Form 4
2026-06-25Karaboutis AdrianadirectorAward / grant7762,792Form 4
2026-06-25Cai Jin-YongdirectorAward / grant7768,241Form 4
2026-06-25Jenkins Jo AnndirectorAward / grant7761,060Form 4
2026-06-25Cai Jin-YongdirectorAward / grant7768,241Form 4
2026-06-25Spruell ByrondirectorAward / grant7766,563Form 4
2026-06-25CAMPBELL JEFFREY CdirectorAward / grant77612,807Form 4
2026-06-25SANTONA GLORIAdirectorAward / grant77622,648Form 4
2026-06-25NOTEBAERT RICHARD CdirectorAward / grant77628,514Form 4
2026-06-25STAVRIDIS JAMES G.directorAward / grant7761,564Form 4
2026-06-25FRANCIS CHERYL AdirectorAward / grant77629,480Form 4
2026-06-25Alvarez Jose AntoniodirectorAward / grant7761,643Form 4
2026-06-25KNIGHT LESTER BdirectorAward / grant1,4885,227Form 4
2026-05-12NOTEBAERT RICHARD CdirectorGift1,43827,738Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2026-05-042026-04-06$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-11-102025-10-27$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-09-112025-08-21$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-09-112025-08-21$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-07-072025-06-16$1–15K
Jefferson ShreveHousesale2025-06-222025-05-08$15–50K
Thomas H. Kean JrHousepurchase2025-06-172025-05-27$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-05-122025-04-14$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-05-122025-04-02$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-05-122025-04-02$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-05-122025-04-14$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-04-172025-03-19$15–50K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2025-04-172025-03-26$15–50K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.