Issued 2026-09-25 at $1.31 · now $1.31 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, ANVS has typically landed between $0.85 and $2.12 — a range of −34.8% to +61.5% from the issuance price $1.31.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,648 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-01-29 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($1.31) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ANVS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $1.31 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $1.31 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.22 (-6.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.05–$1.4
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $0.854–$2.12
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2021-07-12 | −68.2% | −70.6% | +3.2% |
| 2021-07-27 | −67.9% | −69.3% | +0.0% |
| 2021-07-23 | −67.1% | −71.1% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2021-05-14 | +293.9% | +0.0% | +293.9% |
| 2021-05-13 | +270.7% | +0.0% | +290.9% |
| 2021-05-18 | +257.5% | +0.0% | +265.0% |
1,648 overlapping windows · 2020-01-29 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- December 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Double-blind Dual Study Assessing Safety and Efficacy of Buntanetap in Participants With Early AD (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- September 2029 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2/Phase PHASE3 primary completion: A Study of Buntanetap in Participants With PD (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | Hoffman Michael B | director | Purchase | 54,933 @ $1.90 | $104K | +1.7% of holding | −13.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,364,883 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Hoffman Michael B | director | Purchase | 18,849 @ $1.80 | $34K | +0.6% of holding | −13.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,309,950 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Hoffman Michael B | director | Purchase | 2,562 @ $1.75 | $4K | +0.1% of holding | −13.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,291,101 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Hoffman Michael B | director | Purchase | 713,800 @ $2.10 | $1.5M | +27.7% of holding | −9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,288,539 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | Hoffman Michael B | director | Purchase | 30,000 @ $4.34 | $130K | +1.2% of holding | −10.0% | −66.7% | 2,559,739 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-08 | Hoffman Michael B | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $4.24 | $64K | +0.6% of holding | −10.0% | −66.7% | 2,574,739 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-24 | Hoffman Michael B | director | Purchase | 28,096 @ $4.15 | $117K | +1.1% of holding | −14.1% | −67.0% | 2,519,739 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Hoffman Michael B | director | Purchase | 9,200 @ $3.85 | $35K | +0.4% of holding | −14.1% | −67.0% | 2,491,228 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Hoffman Michael B | director | Purchase | 1,489 @ $4.13 | $6K | +0.1% of holding | −14.1% | −67.0% | 2,482,028 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Hoffman Michael B | director | Purchase | 415 @ $4.14 | $2K | +0.0% of holding | −14.1% | −67.0% | 2,491,643 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Hoffman Michael B | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $3.50 | $35K | +0.4% of holding | −10.2% | −61.5% | 2,490,539 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-21 | Hoffman Michael B | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $3.49 | $35K | +0.4% of holding | −10.2% | −61.5% | 2,480,539 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-14 | Hoffman Michael B | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $2.11 | $32K | +0.6% of holding | +66.9% | −26.9% | 2,470,539 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-28 | Hoffman Michael B | director | Purchase | 975,610 @ $2.05 | $2.0M | +65.9% of holding | +135.4% | −11.4% | 2,455,539 | Form 4 · filed 15 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-28 | Maccecchini Maria-Luisa | director | Purchase | 97,561 @ $2.05 | $200K | +8.8% of holding | +135.4% | −11.4% | 1,212,020 | Form 4 · filed 15 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
26 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-10 | Bruck Claudine | director | Option exercise | 7,142 | 13,709 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-10 | Bruck Claudine | director | Option exercise | 7,142 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-29 | Hoffman Michael B | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 1,479,929 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-29 | Hoffman Michael B | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 1,474,929 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-29 | Hoffman Michael B | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 1,469,929 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-19 | Hoffman Michael B | director | Award / grant | 6,717 | 1,453,001 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-19 | Hoffman Michael B | director | Award / grant | 5,545 | 1,463,829 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-19 | Hoffman Michael B | director | Award / grant | 5,283 | 1,458,284 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-19 | Hoffman Michael B | director | Award / grant | 1,100 | 1,464,929 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-16 | Walsh Andrew | officer | Award / grant | 500 | 500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-13 | Hoffman Michael B | director | Award / grant | 25,000 | 1,446,283 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-13 | Hoffman Michael B | director | Award / grant | 1 | 1,446,284 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-10 | McCarthy Reid | director | Award / grant | 2,000 | 9,305 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-04 | Maccecchini Maria-Luisa | director | Award / grant | 46,000 | 1,114,459 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-29 | Hoffman Michael B | director | Award / grant | 5,000 | 1,421,283 | Form 4 |
| 2024-07-01 | White Mark K. | director | Award / grant | 20,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-03-31 | Maccecchini Maria-Luisa | director | Gift | 10,000 | 1,078,459 | Form 4 |
| 2024-03-31 | Maccecchini Maria-Luisa | director | Gift | 10,000 | 1,068,459 | Form 4 |
| 2024-03-28 | Maccecchini Maria-Luisa | director | Gift | 10,000 | 1,088,459 | Form 4 |
| 2023-11-27 | White Mark K. | director | Award / grant | 2,146 | 2,146 | Form 4 |
| 2023-11-17 | Hoffman Michael B | director | Award / grant | 29,600 | 29,600 | Form 4 |
| 2023-11-17 | Maccecchini Maria-Luisa | director | Award / grant | 252,000 | 252,000 | Form 4 |
| 2023-11-17 | White Mark K. | director | Award / grant | 26,200 | 26,200 | Form 4 |
| 2023-11-17 | McCarthy Reid | director | Award / grant | 29,600 | 29,600 | Form 4 |
| 2023-11-17 | Maccecchini Maria-Luisa | director | Award / grant | 108,800 | 108,800 | Form 4 |
| 2023-11-17 | Bruck Claudine | director | Award / grant | 26,200 | 26,200 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.