ANF · TickerCove

ANFAbercrombie & Fitch Co.as of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $139.89 · now $139.89 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ANF has typically landed between $107.51 and $183.41 — a range of −23.1% to +31.1% from the issuance price $139.89.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($139.89) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$139.89 · 86% of range

$65.61 low$152.08 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+3.2%

typical move · IQR 26.5%

−23.1%worst (p90)+31.1%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

1 open-market sale

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 1 sells · 1 member

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where ANF has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $139.89 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $139.89 (+0.0%)
typical $144.36 (+3.2%)
middle 50% $125.79–$162.93
90% range $107.51–$183.41

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−51.7%	−51.7%	+1.0%
2008-10-21	−50.7%	−50.7%	+0.0%
2020-02-21	−49.1%	−50.2%	+0.0%
3 best
2025-11-24	+93.2%	+0.0%	+93.2%
2025-11-20	+83.9%	−3.2%	+83.9%
2025-11-21	+77.2%	−6.1%	+78.5%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

44%

−0.5%

n=18

Feb

63%

+4.2%

n=19

Mar

47%

+1.0%

n=19

Apr

63%

+2.0%

n=19

May

53%

−2.1%

n=19

Jun

47%

−1.7%

n=19

Jul

53%

+1.2%

n=19

Aug

42%

+2.9%

n=19

Sep

53%

−0.3%

n=19

Oct

44%

−1.1%

n=18

Nov

61%

+11.4%

n=18

Dec

50%

+3.0%

n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-04	Lipesky Scott D.	officer	Sale	2,000 @ $146.82	$294K	−1.4% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	145,534	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-08-28	HENCHEL GREGORY J	officer	Sale	30,000 @ $146.65	$4.4M	−47.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	33,681	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-28	Lipesky Scott D.	officer	Sale	5,000 @ $149.00	$745K	−3.3% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	147,534	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-28	Rust Jay	officer	Sale	5,000 @ $147.50	$738K	−24.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	15,651	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-28	Robinson Kenneth B.	director	Sale	800 @ $149.69	$120K	−10.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	7,169	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-10	Lipesky Scott D.	officer	Sale	10,000 @ $115.00	$1.1M	−6.2% of holding	+29.7%	not yet — horizon still open	152,534	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-04	Lipesky Scott D.	officer	Sale	10,000 @ $110.00	$1.1M	−5.8% of holding	+55.2%	not yet — horizon still open	162,534	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-28	Lipesky Scott D.	officer	Sale	10,000 @ $105.00	$1.1M	−5.5% of holding	+55.2%	not yet — horizon still open	172,534	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-16	Lipesky Scott D.	officer	Sale	10,000 @ $100.00	$1.0M	−5.2% of holding	+43.0%	not yet — horizon still open	182,534	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-06	Horowitz Fran	director	Sale	29,769 @ $100.00	$3.0M	−8.8% of holding	−9.1%	+39.8%	308,503	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-05	Horowitz Fran	director	Sale	4,864 @ $101.39	$493K	−1.4% of holding	−13.0%	−3.7%	338,272	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-05	Horowitz Fran	director	Sale	4,610 @ $100.52	$463K	−1.3% of holding	−13.0%	−3.7%	343,136	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-05	Horowitz Fran	director	Sale	3,132 @ $102.62	$321K	−0.9% of holding	−13.0%	−3.7%	347,746	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-05	Horowitz Fran	director	Sale	2,612 @ $103.27	$270K	−0.7% of holding	−13.0%	−3.7%	350,878	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-05	Horowitz Fran	director	Sale	1,813 @ $104.52	$189K	−0.5% of holding	−13.0%	−3.7%	353,490	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-04	Horowitz Fran	director	Sale	17,251 @ $105.52	$1.8M	−4.6% of holding	−17.5%	−5.4%	355,303	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-04	Horowitz Fran	director	Sale	14,919 @ $102.44	$1.5M	−3.9% of holding	−17.5%	−5.4%	372,554	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-04	Horowitz Fran	director	Sale	9,171 @ $103.28	$947K	−2.3% of holding	−17.5%	−5.4%	387,473	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-04	Horowitz Fran	director	Sale	6,200 @ $101.66	$630K	−1.5% of holding	−17.5%	−5.4%	396,644	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-04	Horowitz Fran	director	Sale	2,459 @ $104.46	$257K	−0.6% of holding	−17.5%	−5.4%	402,844	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-03	Horowitz Fran	director	Sale	35,593 @ $100.76	$3.6M	−8.1% of holding	−10.7%	−3.0%	405,303	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-03	Horowitz Fran	director	Sale	14,407 @ $102.77	$1.5M	−3.2% of holding	−10.7%	−3.0%	440,896	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-02	Horowitz Fran	director	Sale	49,200 @ $101.10	$5.0M	−9.8% of holding	−4.2%	−6.7%	455,303	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-02	Horowitz Fran	director	Sale	800 @ $102.11	$82K	−0.2% of holding	−4.2%	−6.7%	504,503	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-23	Horowitz Fran	director	Sale	76,891 @ $95.07	$7.3M	−13.2% of holding	−1.1%	+3.9%	505,303	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-01-23	Horowitz Fran	director	Sale	23,109 @ $96.48	$2.2M	−3.8% of holding	−1.1%	+3.9%	582,194	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-01-22	Horowitz Fran	director	Sale	55,877 @ $99.00	$5.5M	−8.5% of holding	−4.0%	+8.6%	605,303	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-22	Horowitz Fran	director	Sale	37,490 @ $97.32	$3.6M	−5.4% of holding	−4.0%	+8.6%	661,180	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-01-22	Horowitz Fran	director	Sale	9,833 @ $100.52	$988K	−1.4% of holding	−4.0%	+8.6%	698,670	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-05	Robinson Kenneth B.	director	Sale	1,392 @ $94.60	$132K	−19.1% of holding	−22.4%	−14.9%	5,880	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-29	GOLDMAN JAMES A	director	Sale	5,072 @ $96.18	$488K	−40.1% of holding	−12.1%	+0.0%	7,565	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-08-29	ANDERSON KERRII B	director	Sale	4,292 @ $95.12	$408K	−10.4% of holding	−12.1%	+0.0%	37,158	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-08-29	Rust Jay	officer	Sale	1,500 @ $93.15	$140K	−18.4% of holding	−12.1%	+0.0%	6,648	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2024-12-04	Coulter Suzanne M	director	Sale	2,870 @ $160.00	$459K	−30.9% of holding	−1.6%	−48.6%	6,405	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

243 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-03	ANDERSON KERRII B	director	Award / grant	91	4,221	Form 4
2026-08-03	Coulter Suzanne M	director	Award / grant	232	28,054	Form 4
2026-06-03	GOLDMAN JAMES A	director	Award / grant	2,160	4,249	Form 4
2026-06-03	GOLDMAN JAMES A	director	Option exercise	2,089	2,160	Form 4
2026-06-03	McCluskey Helen	director	Option exercise	2,089	36,839	Form 4
2026-06-03	McCluskey Helen	director	Award / grant	2,160	4,249	Form 4
2026-06-03	McCluskey Helen	director	Option exercise	2,089	2,160	Form 4
2026-06-03	Nunez Arturo	director	Option exercise	2,089	2,869	Form 4
2026-06-03	Nunez Arturo	director	Award / grant	2,160	4,249	Form 4
2026-06-03	Nunez Arturo	director	Option exercise	2,089	2,160	Form 4
2026-06-03	Robinson Kenneth B.	director	Option exercise	2,089	7,969	Form 4
2026-06-03	Robinson Kenneth B.	director	Award / grant	2,160	4,249	Form 4
2026-06-03	Robinson Kenneth B.	director	Option exercise	2,089	2,160	Form 4
2026-06-03	TRAVIS NIGEL	director	Option exercise	3,355	24,455	Form 4
2026-06-03	TRAVIS NIGEL	director	Award / grant	2,160	2,160	Form 4
2026-06-03	TRAVIS NIGEL	director	Option exercise	2,089	0	Form 4
2026-06-03	TRAVIS NIGEL	director	Award / grant	1,309	1,309	Form 4
2026-06-03	TRAVIS NIGEL	director	Option exercise	1,266	0	Form 4
2026-06-03	Vaid Helen	director	Option exercise	2,089	7,161	Form 4
2026-06-03	Vaid Helen	director	Option exercise	2,089	0	Form 4
2026-06-03	Horowitz Fran	director	Gift	25,000	492,793	Form 4
2026-06-03	Coulter Suzanne M	director	Award / grant	2,160	4,249	Form 4
2026-06-03	ANDERSON KERRII B	director	Option exercise	1,567	38,725	Form 4
2026-06-03	ANDERSON KERRII B	director	Option exercise	522	4,129	Form 4
2026-06-03	ANDERSON KERRII B	director	Award / grant	2,160	4,249	Form 4
2026-06-03	ANDERSON KERRII B	director	Option exercise	2,089	2,160	Form 4
2026-06-03	Clarke Andrew Paul	director	Option exercise	2,089	2,089	Form 4
2026-06-03	Clarke Andrew Paul	director	Award / grant	2,160	4,249	Form 4
2026-06-03	Clarke Andrew Paul	director	Option exercise	2,089	2,160	Form 4
2026-06-03	Coulter Suzanne M	director	Option exercise	2,089	27,821	Form 4
2026-06-03	Coulter Suzanne M	director	Option exercise	2,089	2,160	Form 4
2026-06-03	GOLDMAN JAMES A	director	Option exercise	2,089	9,654	Form 4
2026-05-04	ANDERSON KERRII B	director	Award / grant	107	3,607	Form 4
2026-05-04	Coulter Suzanne M	director	Award / grant	294	25,732	Form 4
2026-03-26	Horowitz Fran	director	Withheld for tax	128,289	517,793	Form 4
2026-03-26	Desai Samir	director	Withheld for tax	34,832	99,625	Form 4
2026-03-26	Lipesky Scott D.	officer	Withheld for tax	30,537	192,534	Form 4
2026-03-26	HENCHEL GREGORY J	officer	Withheld for tax	10,887	63,729	Form 4
2026-03-26	Rust Jay	officer	Withheld for tax	7,865	20,651	Form 4
2026-03-26	Horowitz Fran	director	Award / grant	290,904	646,082	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iiDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks

Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

Member	Chamber	Type	Filed	Traded	Size
Jacky Rosen	Senate	sale	2017-10-01	2017-09-25	$1–15K

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Seasonality · by month i