Issued 2026-09-25 at $206.55 · now $206.55 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, ANET has typically landed between $172.54 and $257.49 — a range of −16.5% to +24.7% from the issuance price $206.55.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,074 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-06-06 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($206.55) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ANET has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $206.55 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $206.55 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $215.91 (+4.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $198.59–$233.24
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $172.54–$257.49
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,074 windows spanning 2014-06-06 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-13 | −33.9% | −33.9% | +0.0% |
| 2025-02-10 | −33.3% | −35.5% | +0.0% |
| 2025-02-07 | −33.2% | −34.5% | +1.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2021-10-06 | +48.1% | +0.0% | +48.1% |
| 2021-10-07 | +45.7% | +0.0% | +45.7% |
| 2021-10-05 | +45.6% | +0.0% | +45.6% |
3,074 overlapping windows · 2014-06-06 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$219.1B
market cap
$2.92
EPS (TTM)
59.6
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-04
next earnings
Revenue$9.0B
'20'25
Net income$3.5B
'20'25
Free cash flow$4.3B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr39.0%
'20'25
ROE · by yr28.4%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.00
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$95.39
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$99.88
- Analyst target · range $164.00–$200.00$187.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$206.55
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
75%
+2.1%
n=12
Feb
50%
+4.1%
n=12
Mar
67%
+3.1%
n=12
Apr
58%
+2.6%
n=12
May
67%
+1.5%
n=12
Jun
67%
+3.6%
n=12
Jul
69%
+7.6%
n=13
Aug
69%
+6.0%
n=13
Sep
54%
−0.7%
n=13
Oct
75%
+3.1%
n=12
Nov
75%
+6.9%
n=12
Dec
75%
+0.7%
n=12
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Duda Kenneth | director | Sale | 7,420 @ $202.66 | $1.5M | −25.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 21,409 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Duda Kenneth | director | Sale | 6,849 @ $202.66 | $1.4M | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,178,703 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Duda Kenneth | director | Sale | 4,281 @ $202.66 | $868K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 447,265 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Duda Kenneth | director | Sale | 3,533 @ $204.78 | $723K | −18.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 15,176 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Duda Kenneth | director | Sale | 3,262 @ $204.78 | $668K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,172,949 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Duda Kenneth | director | Sale | 2,700 @ $203.49 | $549K | −12.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 18,709 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Duda Kenneth | director | Sale | 2,492 @ $203.49 | $507K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,176,211 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Duda Kenneth | director | Sale | 2,200 @ $205.50 | $452K | −14.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 12,976 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Duda Kenneth | director | Sale | 2,031 @ $205.50 | $417K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,170,918 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Duda Kenneth | director | Sale | 2,038 @ $204.78 | $417K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 443,669 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Duda Kenneth | director | Sale | 1,558 @ $203.49 | $317K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 445,707 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Duda Kenneth | director | Sale | 1,480 @ $201.70 | $299K | −4.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 28,829 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Duda Kenneth | director | Sale | 1,366 @ $201.70 | $276K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,185,552 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Duda Kenneth | director | Sale | 1,269 @ $205.50 | $261K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 442,400 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-21 | Duda Kenneth | director | Sale | 854 @ $201.70 | $172K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 451,546 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-17 | BECHTOLSHEIM ANDREAS | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 58,043 @ $200.38 | $11.6M | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 180,612,010 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-17 | BECHTOLSHEIM ANDREAS | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 38,920 @ $199.58 | $7.8M | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 180,670,053 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-17 | BECHTOLSHEIM ANDREAS | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 32,836 @ $195.47 | $6.4M | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 180,773,773 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-17 | BECHTOLSHEIM ANDREAS | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 29,271 @ $194.52 | $5.7M | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 180,806,609 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-17 | BECHTOLSHEIM ANDREAS | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 26,435 @ $198.33 | $5.2M | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 180,708,973 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-17 | BECHTOLSHEIM ANDREAS | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 25,096 @ $203.56 | $5.1M | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 180,554,974 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-17 | BECHTOLSHEIM ANDREAS | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 20,418 @ $196.29 | $4.0M | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 180,753,355 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-17 | BECHTOLSHEIM ANDREAS | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 17,947 @ $197.51 | $3.5M | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 180,735,408 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-17 | BECHTOLSHEIM ANDREAS | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 16,239 @ $201.34 | $3.3M | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 180,595,771 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-17 | BECHTOLSHEIM ANDREAS | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 15,701 @ $202.40 | $3.2M | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 180,580,070 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-17 | BECHTOLSHEIM ANDREAS | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 11,926 @ $204.31 | $2.4M | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 180,543,048 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-17 | BECHTOLSHEIM ANDREAS | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 7,168 @ $193.61 | $1.4M | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 180,835,880 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | TEMPLETON MARK B | director | Sale | 1,700 @ $198.44 | $337K | −3.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 53,710 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | TEMPLETON MARK B | director | Sale | 1,300 @ $195.27 | $254K | −2.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 57,110 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | TEMPLETON MARK B | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $197.46 | $197K | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 55,410 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | TEMPLETON MARK B | director | Sale | 700 @ $196.20 | $137K | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 56,410 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | TEMPLETON MARK B | director | Sale | 300 @ $199.32 | $60K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 53,410 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Breithaupt Chantelle Yvette | director | Sale | 612 @ $195.77 | $120K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 69,921 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | BECHTOLSHEIM ANDREAS | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 73,794 @ $202.71 | $15.0M | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 180,934,056 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | BECHTOLSHEIM ANDREAS | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 70,054 @ $201.74 | $14.1M | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 181,007,850 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | BECHTOLSHEIM ANDREAS | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 64,510 @ $204.82 | $13.2M | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 180,848,694 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | BECHTOLSHEIM ANDREAS | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 50,091 @ $200.81 | $10.1M | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 181,077,904 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | BECHTOLSHEIM ANDREAS | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 20,852 @ $203.69 | $4.2M | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 180,913,204 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | BECHTOLSHEIM ANDREAS | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 15,053 @ $199.91 | $3.0M | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 181,127,995 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | BECHTOLSHEIM ANDREAS | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 5,646 @ $205.45 | $1.2M | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 180,843,048 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Ullal Jayshree | director | Sale | 10,128 @ $191.99 | $1.9M | −49.5% of holding | +7.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,317 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Ullal Jayshree | director | Sale | 3,281 @ $191.10 | $627K | −13.8% of holding | +7.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,445 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Ullal Jayshree | director | Sale | 400 @ $192.64 | $77K | −3.9% of holding | +7.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,917 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Battles Kelly Bodnar | director | Sale | 213 @ $188.69 | $40K | −2.0% of holding | +7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,194 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Battles Kelly Bodnar | director | Sale | 70 @ $184.77 | $13K | −0.7% of holding | +7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,546 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Battles Kelly Bodnar | director | Sale | 64 @ $185.61 | $12K | −0.6% of holding | +7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,482 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Battles Kelly Bodnar | director | Sale | 40 @ $187.77 | $8K | −0.4% of holding | +7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,407 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Battles Kelly Bodnar | director | Sale | 35 @ $186.93 | $7K | −0.3% of holding | +7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,447 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Duda Kenneth | director | Sale | 6,568 @ $186.13 | $1.2M | −32.3% of holding | +10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,794 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Duda Kenneth | director | Sale | 6,063 @ $186.13 | $1.1M | −0.6% of holding | +10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,015,922 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Duda Kenneth | director | Sale | 5,750 @ $185.18 | $1.1M | −22.0% of holding | +10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,362 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Duda Kenneth | director | Sale | 5,308 @ $185.18 | $983K | −0.5% of holding | +10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,021,985 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Duda Kenneth | director | Sale | 4,197 @ $184.33 | $774K | −13.8% of holding | +10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,112 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Duda Kenneth | director | Sale | 3,875 @ $184.33 | $714K | −0.4% of holding | +10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,027,293 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Duda Kenneth | director | Sale | 3,789 @ $186.13 | $705K | −0.8% of holding | +10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 452,872 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Duda Kenneth | director | Sale | 3,317 @ $185.18 | $614K | −0.7% of holding | +10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 456,661 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Duda Kenneth | director | Sale | 2,422 @ $184.33 | $446K | −0.5% of holding | +10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 459,978 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Duda Kenneth | director | Sale | 818 @ $186.97 | $153K | −5.9% of holding | +10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,976 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Duda Kenneth | director | Sale | 754 @ $186.97 | $141K | −0.1% of holding | +10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,015,168 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Duda Kenneth | director | Sale | 472 @ $186.97 | $88K | −0.1% of holding | +10.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 452,400 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
63 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Duda Kenneth | director | Option exercise | 17,333 | 30,309 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | Duda Kenneth | director | Option exercise | 17,333 | 138,668 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Duda Kenneth | director | Other acquisition | 57,232 | 81,927 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Duda Kenneth | director | Other acquisition | 28,616 | 692,104 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Duda Kenneth | director | Other acquisition | 28,616 | 690,621 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Duda Kenneth | director | Other acquisition | 100,000 | 720,720 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Duda Kenneth | director | Other acquisition | 200,000 | 24,695 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Duda Kenneth | director | Other acquisition | 100,000 | 719,237 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Duda Kenneth | director | Other acquisition | 42,937 | 619,237 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Duda Kenneth | director | Other acquisition | 42,938 | 620,720 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Duda Kenneth | director | Other acquisition | 85,875 | 1,101,043 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Duda Kenneth | director | Other acquisition | 42,937 | 663,658 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Duda Kenneth | director | Other acquisition | 51,160 | 705,112 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Duda Kenneth | director | Other acquisition | 85,875 | 1,186,918 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Duda Kenneth | director | Other acquisition | 42,938 | 662,174 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Duda Kenneth | director | Other acquisition | 102,320 | 224,695 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Duda Kenneth | director | Other acquisition | 51,160 | 706,595 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Nightingale Todd | director | Withheld for tax | 63,540 | 69,463 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Duda Kenneth | director | Withheld for tax | 15,541 | 122,375 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Ullal Jayshree | director | Withheld for tax | 13,855 | 23,726 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Breithaupt Chantelle Yvette | director | Withheld for tax | 6,145 | 70,533 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Duda Kenneth | director | Option exercise | 13,334 | 26,310 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Duda Kenneth | director | Option exercise | 3,999 | 30,309 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | CHEW LEWIS | director | Option exercise | 538 | 31,770 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Scheinman Daniel | director | Option exercise | 538 | 1,615 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Duda Kenneth | director | Option exercise | 3,880 | 3,884 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Battles Kelly Bodnar | director | Option exercise | 538 | 1,615 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Wassenaar Yvonne | director | Option exercise | 538 | 1,615 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Wassenaar Yvonne | director | Option exercise | 538 | 10,322 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Breithaupt Chantelle Yvette | director | Option exercise | 1,350 | 17,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Giancarlo Charles H | director | Option exercise | 538 | 1,509 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Nightingale Todd | director | Option exercise | 10,360 | 133,003 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Nightingale Todd | director | Option exercise | 116,515 | 349,545 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Duda Kenneth | director | Option exercise | 19,816 | 136,566 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Nightingale Todd | director | Option exercise | 10,360 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Breithaupt Chantelle Yvette | director | Option exercise | 1,350 | 76,678 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Battles Kelly Bodnar | director | Option exercise | 538 | 10,616 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | CHEW LEWIS | director | Option exercise | 538 | 1,615 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Duda Kenneth | director | Option exercise | 1,350 | 137,916 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Ullal Jayshree | director | Option exercise | 27,664 | 37,581 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Dan Newhouse | House | purchase | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | purchase | 2026-06-10 | 2026-05-06 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-25 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-06 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Tony Wied | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-12 | $100–250K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-02-13 | 2026-01-30 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.