ANET — TickerCove · TickerCove

ANETArista Networks, Inc.Technology · Computer Hardwareas of 2026-08-13

Horizon

Issued 2026-08-13 at $203.62 · now $203.62 (2026-08-13, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, ANET has typically landed between $170.09 and $253.63 — a range of −16.5% to +24.6% from the issuance price $203.62.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

3,044 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-06-06 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($203.62) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$203.62 · 93% of range

$116.13 low$210.5 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-08-13 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,400 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.8%

90% CI 51.6%–56.0%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+4.3%

typical move · IQR 16.8%

−16.5%worst (p90)+24.6%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

94 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+28 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

9 buys · 5 sells · 6 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where ANET has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $203.62 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $203.62 (+0.0%)
typical $212.28 (+4.3%)
middle 50% $195.19–$229.37
90% range $170.09–$253.63

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,044 windows spanning 2014-06-06 to 2026-08-13. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-13	−33.9%	−33.9%	+0.0%
2025-02-10	−33.3%	−35.5%	+0.0%
2025-02-07	−33.2%	−34.5%	+1.5%
3 best
2021-10-06	+48.1%	+0.0%	+48.1%
2021-10-07	+45.7%	+0.0%	+45.7%
2021-10-05	+45.6%	+0.0%	+45.6%

3,044 overlapping windows · 2014-06-06 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iiAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$219.1B

market cap

$2.92

EPS (TTM)

59.6

P/E (TTM)

2026-08-04

next earnings

Revenue$9.0B

'20'25

Net income$3.5B

'20'25

Free cash flow$4.3B

'20'25

Net margin · by yr39.0%

'20'25

ROE · by yr28.4%

'20'25

Debt / equity · by yr0.00

'20'25

Fair value — three views i

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.

DCF (intrinsic)$95.39
Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$99.88
Analyst target · range $164.00–$200.00$187.50
Current price · last close 2026-08-13$203.62

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

75%

+2.1%

n=12

Feb

50%

+4.1%

n=12

Mar

67%

+3.1%

n=12

Apr

58%

+2.6%

n=12

May

67%

+1.5%

n=12

Jun

67%

+3.6%

n=12

Jul

69%

+7.6%

n=13

Aug

69%

+6.4%

n=13

Sep

50%

−1.2%

n=12

Oct

75%

+3.1%

n=12

Nov

75%

+6.9%

n=12

Dec

75%

+0.7%

n=12

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2025-08-18	Duda Kenneth	director	Sale	14,704 @ $136.47	$2.0M	−41.0% of holding	+1.0%	−6.2%	21,180	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-18	Duda Kenneth	director	Sale	8,204 @ $137.39	$1.1M	−38.7% of holding	+1.0%	−6.2%	12,976	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-18	Duda Kenneth	director	Sale	7,843 @ $136.47	$1.1M	−0.6% of holding	+1.0%	−6.2%	1,211,543	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-18	Duda Kenneth	director	Sale	7,092 @ $135.57	$961K	−16.5% of holding	+1.0%	−6.2%	35,884	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-18	Duda Kenneth	director	Sale	4,901 @ $136.47	$669K	−0.8% of holding	+1.0%	−6.2%	575,135	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-18	Duda Kenneth	director	Sale	4,375 @ $137.39	$601K	−0.4% of holding	+1.0%	−6.2%	1,207,168	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-18	Duda Kenneth	director	Sale	3,782 @ $135.57	$513K	−0.3% of holding	+1.0%	−6.2%	1,219,386	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-18	Duda Kenneth	director	Sale	2,735 @ $137.39	$376K	−0.5% of holding	+1.0%	−6.2%	572,400	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-18	Duda Kenneth	director	Sale	2,364 @ $135.57	$320K	−0.4% of holding	+1.0%	−6.2%	580,036	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

34 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2025-08-20	Ullal Jayshree	director	Withheld for tax	24,216	33,957	Form 4
2025-08-20	Duda Kenneth	director	Withheld for tax	7,818	33,373	Form 4
2025-08-20	Breithaupt Chantelle Yvette	officer	Withheld for tax	5,455	41,936	Form 4
2025-08-20	CHEW LEWIS	director	Option exercise	971	2,913	Form 4
2025-08-20	Giancarlo Charles H	director	Option exercise	971	220,607	Form 4
2025-08-20	Giancarlo Charles H	director	Option exercise	971	2,913	Form 4
2025-08-20	Lavender Robert G	director	Option exercise	808	1,647	Form 4
2025-08-20	Lavender Robert G	director	Option exercise	808	2,422	Form 4
2025-08-20	Scheinman Daniel	director	Option exercise	971	155,279	Form 4
2025-08-20	Scheinman Daniel	director	Option exercise	971	2,913	Form 4
2025-08-20	Battles Kelly Bodnar	director	Option exercise	971	8,431	Form 4
2025-08-20	TEMPLETON MARK B	director	Option exercise	971	2,913	Form 4
2025-08-20	Wassenaar Yvonne	director	Option exercise	971	12,447	Form 4
2025-08-20	Wassenaar Yvonne	director	Option exercise	971	2,913	Form 4
2025-08-20	Breithaupt Chantelle Yvette	officer	Option exercise	10,920	47,391	Form 4
2025-08-20	Breithaupt Chantelle Yvette	officer	Option exercise	10,920	109,176	Form 4
2025-08-20	Duda Kenneth	director	Option exercise	5,712	31,327	Form 4
2025-08-20	Duda Kenneth	director	Option exercise	3,884	35,211	Form 4
2025-08-20	Duda Kenneth	director	Option exercise	4,148	39,359	Form 4
2025-08-20	Duda Kenneth	director	Option exercise	1,832	41,191	Form 4
2025-08-20	Duda Kenneth	director	Option exercise	4,148	37,328	Form 4
2025-08-20	Duda Kenneth	director	Option exercise	1,832	23,856	Form 4
2025-08-20	Duda Kenneth	director	Option exercise	5,712	5,712	Form 4
2025-08-20	Duda Kenneth	director	Option exercise	3,884	19,412	Form 4
2025-08-20	Ullal Jayshree	director	Option exercise	20,592	30,509	Form 4
2025-08-20	Ullal Jayshree	director	Option exercise	27,664	58,173	Form 4
2025-08-20	Ullal Jayshree	director	Option exercise	20,592	41,192	Form 4
2025-08-20	Ullal Jayshree	director	Option exercise	27,664	165,980	Form 4
2025-08-20	TEMPLETON MARK B	director	Option exercise	971	54,959	Form 4
2025-08-20	Battles Kelly Bodnar	director	Option exercise	971	2,913	Form 4
2025-08-20	CHEW LEWIS	director	Option exercise	971	28,319	Form 4
2025-08-19	Wassenaar Yvonne	director	Gift	1,000	11,476	Form 4
2025-08-18	Duda Kenneth	director	Option exercise	30,000	42,976	Form 4
2025-08-18	Duda Kenneth	director	Option exercise	30,000	150,000	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iiDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks

Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+28 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 53.7% vs 53.2% · n=26,833

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +28 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27).

Member	Chamber	Type	Filed	Traded	Size
Alan Armstrong	Senate	purchase	2026-07-21	2026-03-27	$1–15K
Dan Newhouse	House	purchase	2026-07-17	2026-07-10	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	purchase	2026-07-06	2026-06-30	$1–15K
Michael T. McCaul	House	purchase	2026-06-10	2026-05-06	$15–50K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2026-06-09	2026-05-27	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2026-06-09	2026-05-15	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	purchase	2026-05-11	2026-04-13	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	purchase	2026-05-11	2026-04-24	$1–15K
Gilbert Cisneros	House	sale	2026-04-07	2026-03-25	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2026-03-09	2026-02-06	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	sale	2026-03-09	2026-02-05	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	purchase	2026-03-09	2026-02-24	$1–15K
Tony Wied	House	purchase	2026-03-09	2026-02-12	$100–250K
Gilbert Cisneros	House	purchase	2026-02-13	2026-01-30	$1–15K

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-08-143% elapsed2026-09-11

Logged immutably 2026-08-14; scored automatically on 2026-09-11 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Fair value — three views i

Seasonality · by month i