AN · TickerCove

ANAutoNation, Inc.as of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $195.37 · now $195.37 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AN has typically landed between $170.91 and $225.51 — a range of −12.5% to +15.4% from the issuance price $195.37.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($195.37) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$195.37 · 35% of range

$178.59 low$227.18 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.8%

typical move · IQR 11.3%

−12.5%worst (p90)+15.4%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

8 buys · 5 sells · 2 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where AN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $195.37 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $195.37 (+0.0%)
typical $196.98 (+0.8%)
middle 50% $185.91–$208.05
90% range $170.91–$225.51

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2008-09-26	−67.2%	−67.2%	+0.0%
2008-09-25	−66.0%	−66.0%	+0.0%
2008-09-24	−59.4%	−59.4%	+2.7%
3 best
2008-10-27	+84.1%	+0.0%	+84.1%
2008-11-06	+76.1%	+0.0%	+76.1%
2008-10-24	+70.7%	−5.0%	+70.7%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

44%

+1.0%

n=18

Feb

53%

+0.3%

n=19

Mar

58%

+0.4%

n=19

Apr

63%

+7.2%

n=19

May

47%

+0.0%

n=19

Jun

47%

−0.4%

n=19

Jul

74%

+9.8%

n=19

Aug

42%

−0.3%

n=19

Sep

42%

−1.3%

n=19

Oct

39%

−2.5%

n=18

Nov

83%

+4.9%

n=18

Dec

56%

+1.3%

n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-05	Lutoff-Perlo Lisa	director	Sale	900 @ $220.00	$198K	−10.1% of holding	−0.9%	not yet — horizon still open	7,989	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-05	DEES KIMBERLY	officer	Sale	2,500 @ $204.91	$512K	−63.2% of holding	−11.6%	not yet — horizon still open	1,456	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-16	EDMUNDS C COLEMAN	officer	Sale	12,324 @ $190.46	$2.3M	−38.2% of holding	−0.4%	−10.3%	19,919	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-05	GRUSKY ROBERT R	director	Sale	1,000 @ $179.79	$180K	−2.2% of holding	+0.3%	+8.7%	44,595	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

204 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-07	Szlosek Thomas A	director	Withheld for tax	1,257	18,437	Form 4
2026-08-07	Szlosek Thomas A	director	Option exercise	3,194	0	Form 4
2026-08-07	Szlosek Thomas A	director	Option exercise	3,194	19,694	Form 4
2026-08-07	Szlosek Thomas A	director	Option exercise	3,194	19,694	Form 4
2026-08-07	Szlosek Thomas A	director	Option exercise	3,194	19,694	Form 4
2026-08-07	Szlosek Thomas A	director	Option exercise	3,194	19,694	Form 4
2026-03-01	Manley Michael Mark	director	Withheld for tax	9,214	151,586	Form 4
2026-03-01	EDMUNDS C COLEMAN	officer	Withheld for tax	2,075	30,521	Form 4
2026-03-01	CAMPLONE GIANLUCA	officer	Withheld for tax	2,055	33,340	Form 4
2026-03-01	Szlosek Thomas A	director	Withheld for tax	1,611	16,500	Form 4
2026-03-01	PARENT JEFF	officer	Withheld for tax	997	4,161	Form 4
2026-03-01	DEES KIMBERLY	officer	Withheld for tax	577	3,956	Form 4
2026-03-01	CAMPLONE GIANLUCA	officer	Option exercise	1,754	1,755	Form 4
2026-03-01	DEES KIMBERLY	officer	Option exercise	416	0	Form 4
2026-03-01	DEES KIMBERLY	officer	Option exercise	389	0	Form 4
2026-03-01	DEES KIMBERLY	officer	Option exercise	351	350	Form 4
2026-03-01	DEES KIMBERLY	officer	Option exercise	304	608	Form 4
2026-03-01	DEES KIMBERLY	officer	Award / grant	829	829	Form 4
2026-03-01	CAMPLONE GIANLUCA	officer	Option exercise	1,943	0	Form 4
2026-03-01	CAMPLONE GIANLUCA	officer	Option exercise	1,520	3,041	Form 4
2026-03-01	CAMPLONE GIANLUCA	officer	Award / grant	4,144	4,144	Form 4
2026-03-01	EDMUNDS C COLEMAN	officer	Option exercise	2,068	0	Form 4
2026-03-01	EDMUNDS C COLEMAN	officer	Option exercise	1,360	0	Form 4
2026-03-01	EDMUNDS C COLEMAN	officer	Option exercise	1,228	1,228	Form 4
2026-03-01	EDMUNDS C COLEMAN	officer	Option exercise	944	2,128	Form 4
2026-03-01	EDMUNDS C COLEMAN	officer	Award / grant	3,108	3,108	Form 4
2026-03-01	Manley Michael Mark	director	Option exercise	6,995	0	Form 4
2026-03-01	Manley Michael Mark	director	Option exercise	7,940	7,939	Form 4
2026-03-01	Manley Michael Mark	director	Option exercise	8,477	16,953	Form 4
2026-03-01	Manley Michael Mark	director	Award / grant	23,104	23,104	Form 4
2026-03-01	PARENT JEFF	officer	Option exercise	1,316	1,315	Form 4
2026-03-01	PARENT JEFF	officer	Option exercise	1,216	2,433	Form 4
2026-03-01	PARENT JEFF	officer	Award / grant	4,144	4,144	Form 4
2026-03-01	Szlosek Thomas A	director	Option exercise	2,193	2,193	Form 4
2026-03-01	Szlosek Thomas A	director	Option exercise	1,900	3,801	Form 4
2026-03-01	Szlosek Thomas A	director	Award / grant	5,698	5,698	Form 4
2026-03-01	CAMPLONE GIANLUCA	officer	Option exercise	1,943	32,121	Form 4
2026-03-01	PARENT JEFF	officer	Option exercise	1,216	5,158	Form 4
2026-03-01	DEES KIMBERLY	officer	Option exercise	389	3,878	Form 4
2026-03-01	Szlosek Thomas A	director	Option exercise	2,193	16,211	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iiDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks

Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

Member	Chamber	Type	Filed	Traded	Size
Thomas J. Rooney	House	sale	2018-10-13	2018-09-20	$15–50K
Thomas J. Rooney	House	sale	2018-02-15	2018-01-12	$1–15K
Thomas J. Rooney	House	purchase	2017-07-14	2017-06-14	$1–15K
Thomas J. Rooney	House	sale	2017-06-14	2017-05-15	$1–15K
Thomas J. Rooney	House	purchase	2017-01-24	2016-12-12	$15–50K
Thomas J. Rooney	House	purchase	2017-01-16	2015-11-12	$1–15K
Thomas J. Rooney	House	purchase	2017-01-16	2015-10-15	$1–15K
Thomas J. Rooney	House	purchase	2017-01-16	2016-06-02	$1–15K
Thomas J. Rooney	House	purchase	2017-01-16	2016-03-03	$1–15K
Carlos Curbelo	House	sale	2016-12-09	2016-11-11	$1–15K
Carlos Curbelo	House	sale	2016-11-15	2016-11-10	$1–15K
Carlos Curbelo	House	purchase	2016-01-07	2016-01-07	$1–15K
Carlos Curbelo	House	purchase	2015-09-15	2015-09-04	$1–15K

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Seasonality · by month i