Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.90 · now $1.90 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AMTX has typically landed between $1.26 and $2.95 — a range of −33.7% to +55.4% from the issuance price $1.90.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,997 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.90) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AMTX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.9 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $1.9 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.77 (-6.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.45–$2.09
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.26–$2.95
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-12-11 | −94.3% | −94.3% | +0.0% |
| 2008-12-09 | −93.8% | −93.8% | +0.0% |
| 2008-12-12 | −93.4% | −93.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-05-11 | +333.9% | +0.0% | +333.9% |
| 2020-07-14 | +328.2% | +0.0% | +328.2% |
| 2018-02-13 | +316.2% | +0.0% | +316.2% |
4,997 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-10 | Simon Timothy Alan | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $2.05 | $21K | −19.0% of holding | −24.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,632 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | BARTON FRANCIS P | director | Sale | 12,152 @ $2.53 | $31K | −5.2% of holding | −18.3% | −49.0% | 221,518 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-14 | BARTON FRANCIS P | director | Sale | 8,000 @ $2.53 | $20K | −3.7% of holding | −18.3% | −49.0% | 208,518 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-14 | BARTON FRANCIS P | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $2.53 | $13K | −2.3% of holding | −18.3% | −49.0% | 216,518 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-14 | BARTON FRANCIS P | director | Sale | 1,300 @ $2.53 | $3K | −0.6% of holding | −18.3% | −49.0% | 233,670 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
45 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | MCAFEE ERIC A | director | Award / grant | 300,000 | 3,917,316 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | ROCKETT JAMES MICHAEL | officer | Award / grant | 200,000 | 700,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | FOSTER ANDREW B | officer | Award / grant | 200,000 | 1,185,834 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Gupta Sanjeev | officer | Award / grant | 200,000 | 1,385,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Waltz Todd | officer | Award / grant | 200,000 | 1,305,701 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | BLOCK JOHN R | director | Award / grant | 10,000 | 56,330 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | BARTON FRANCIS P | director | Award / grant | 18,000 | 226,518 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Beebe Lydia I | director | Award / grant | 14,500 | 214,286 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Boness Naomi Louise | director | Award / grant | 12,000 | 64,643 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | BLOCK JOHN R | director | Award / grant | 12,000 | 46,330 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Simon Timothy Alan | director | Award / grant | 12,000 | 52,632 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-09 | Simon Timothy Alan | director | Disposition | 10,371 | 50,261 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-09 | Simon Timothy Alan | director | Disposition | 5,000 | 45,261 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-09 | Simon Timothy Alan | director | Disposition | 4,629 | 40,632 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-15 | ROCKETT JAMES MICHAEL | officer | Award / grant | 27,922 | 27,922 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-07 | Waltz Todd | officer | Option exercise | 70,000 | 412,524 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-07 | Waltz Todd | officer | Option exercise | 62,500 | 312,524 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-07 | Waltz Todd | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 217,940 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-07 | Waltz Todd | officer | Option exercise | 36,762 | 449,286 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-07 | Waltz Todd | officer | Option exercise | 27,084 | 250,024 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-07 | Waltz Todd | officer | Option exercise | 30,000 | 342,524 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-07 | Waltz Todd | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 222,940 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-07 | Waltz Todd | officer | Option exercise | 7,535 | 456,821 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-07 | Waltz Todd | officer | Option exercise | 36,762 | 1,113,236 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-07 | Waltz Todd | officer | Option exercise | 7,535 | 1,105,701 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-07 | Waltz Todd | officer | Option exercise | 50,000 | 1,344,582 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-07 | Waltz Todd | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 1,339,582 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-07 | Waltz Todd | officer | Option exercise | 27,084 | 1,312,498 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-07 | Waltz Todd | officer | Option exercise | 62,500 | 1,249,998 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-07 | Waltz Todd | officer | Option exercise | 30,000 | 1,219,998 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-07 | Waltz Todd | officer | Option exercise | 70,000 | 1,149,998 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-16 | Gupta Sanjeev | officer | Award / grant | 165,568 | 1,205,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-16 | BLOCK JOHN R | director | Award / grant | 12,000 | 38,470 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-16 | BARTON FRANCIS P | director | Award / grant | 18,000 | 234,970 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-16 | FOSTER ANDREW B | officer | Award / grant | 34,432 | 820,266 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-16 | FOSTER ANDREW B | officer | Award / grant | 165,568 | 985,834 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-16 | Gupta Sanjeev | officer | Award / grant | 34,432 | 1,039,432 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-16 | Beebe Lydia I | director | Award / grant | 14,500 | 199,966 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-16 | Simon Timothy Alan | director | Award / grant | 12,000 | 60,632 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-16 | Boness Naomi Louise | director | Award / grant | 12,000 | 51,343 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.