AMTM · TickerCove

AMTMAmentum Holdings, Inc.as of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $19.88 · now $19.88 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AMTM has typically landed between $16.11 and $24.10 — a range of −19.0% to +21.2% from the issuance price $19.88.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

463 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-09-24 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($19.88) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$19.88 · 3% of range

$19.31 low$37.53 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−3.1%

typical move · IQR 17.1%

−19.0%worst (p90)+21.2%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 1 sells · 2 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where AMTM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $19.88 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $19.88 (+0.0%)
typical $19.27 (-3.1%)
middle 50% $17.57–$20.98
90% range $16.11–$24.1

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 463 windows spanning 2024-09-24 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2024-11-08	−28.1%	−34.3%	+0.0%
2024-11-11	−26.1%	−32.0%	+0.0%
2024-11-07	−25.4%	−31.1%	+4.9%
3 best
2025-10-28	+34.0%	−1.8%	+37.1%
2025-10-27	+33.6%	−4.4%	+33.6%
2025-11-17	+33.4%	+0.0%	+40.2%

463 overlapping windows · 2024-09-24 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

+11.5%

n=2

Feb

−11.4%

n=2

Mar

−10.0%

n=2

Apr

100%

+10.2%

n=2

May

−8.4%

n=2

Jun

50%

+1.6%

n=2

Jul

100%

+4.7%

n=2

Aug

−3.4%

n=2

Sep

−2.3%

n=2

Oct

−7.1%

n=2

Nov

50%

+4.8%

n=2

Dec

50%

−6.2%

n=2

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2025-02-18	Loughran Barbara	director	Purchase	4,600 @ $21.23	$98K	ownership Δ n/a	−5.2%	+6.9%	4,600	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-12	DEMETRIOU STEVEN J.	director	Purchase	100,000 @ $20.81	$2.1M	+19.2% of holding	−5.9%	+16.6%	620,893	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

178 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-06	Heller John E.	director	Withheld for tax	8,184	376,019	Form 4
2026-05-06	Johnson Travis Barton	officer	Withheld for tax	4,097	118,187	Form 4
2026-05-06	Arnette Stephen A	officer	Withheld for tax	3,314	106,652	Form 4
2026-05-06	Mullen Sean Thomas	officer	Withheld for tax	2,762	32,448	Form 4
2026-05-06	Bruning Jill L	officer	Withheld for tax	2,731	197,457	Form 4
2026-05-06	Heller John E.	director	Option exercise	18,145	18,146	Form 4
2026-05-06	Arnette Stephen A	officer	Option exercise	13,609	13,609	Form 4
2026-05-06	Mullen Sean Thomas	officer	Option exercise	9,072	9,073	Form 4
2026-05-06	Johnson Travis Barton	officer	Option exercise	13,609	13,609	Form 4
2026-05-06	Bruning Jill L	officer	Option exercise	9,072	9,073	Form 4
2026-05-06	Bruning Jill L	officer	Option exercise	9,072	200,188	Form 4
2026-05-06	Johnson Travis Barton	officer	Option exercise	13,609	122,284	Form 4
2026-05-06	Arnette Stephen A	officer	Option exercise	13,609	109,966	Form 4
2026-05-06	Mullen Sean Thomas	officer	Option exercise	9,072	35,210	Form 4
2026-05-06	Heller John E.	director	Option exercise	18,145	384,203	Form 4
2026-05-06	Arnette Stephen A	officer	Option exercise	13,609	109,966	Form 4
2026-05-06	Bruning Jill L	officer	Option exercise	9,072	200,188	Form 4
2026-05-06	Heller John E.	director	Option exercise	18,145	384,203	Form 4
2026-05-06	Johnson Travis Barton	officer	Option exercise	13,609	122,284	Form 4
2026-03-04	Bruning Jill L	officer	Gift	30,000	190,999	Form 4
2026-03-02	Arnette Stephen A	officer	Withheld for tax	750	96,357	Form 4
2026-03-02	Arnette Stephen A	officer	Option exercise	2,808	0	Form 4
2026-03-02	Arnette Stephen A	officer	Option exercise	2,808	97,107	Form 4
2026-03-02	Arnette Stephen A	officer	Option exercise	2,808	97,107	Form 4
2026-02-17	St. Mary Michele T	officer	Withheld for tax	2,308	27,043	Form 4
2026-02-17	St. Mary Michele T	officer	Option exercise	7,080	14,162	Form 4
2026-02-17	St. Mary Michele T	officer	Option exercise	7,080	29,351	Form 4
2026-02-17	St. Mary Michele T	officer	Option exercise	7,080	29,351	Form 4
2026-02-06	Rowland Sandra E.	director	Option exercise	11,564	0	Form 4
2026-02-06	Rowland Sandra E.	director	Award / grant	5,062	20,073	Form 4
2026-02-06	Brooks Vincent K	director	Award / grant	5,062	27,462	Form 4
2026-02-06	Brooks Vincent K	director	Option exercise	11,564	0	Form 4
2026-02-06	Thompson Christopher M.T.	director	Award / grant	5,062	5,062	Form 4
2026-02-06	IRELAND SUSAN LESLIE	director	Award / grant	5,062	8,509	Form 4
2026-02-06	Vollmer John C.	director	Award / grant	5,062	429,842	Form 4
2026-02-06	Vollmer John C.	director	Option exercise	11,564	0	Form 4
2026-02-06	Loughran Barbara	director	Award / grant	5,062	9,662	Form 4
2026-02-06	EBERHART RALPH E	director	Award / grant	5,062	48,120	Form 4
2026-02-06	EBERHART RALPH E	director	Option exercise	11,564	0	Form 4
2026-02-06	Rowland Sandra E.	director	Option exercise	11,564	15,011	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iiDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks

Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

Member	Chamber	Type	Filed	Traded	Size
William R. Keating	House	sale	2024-11-06	2024-10-31	$1–15K
Thomas H. Kean Jr.	House	exchange	2024-10-15	2024-09-30	$1–15K
Thomas H. Kean Jr.	House	exchange	2024-10-15	2024-09-30	$1–15K
Thomas H. Kean Jr.	House	exchange	2024-10-15	2024-09-30	$1–15K
Thomas H. Kean Jr.	House	exchange	2024-10-15	2024-09-30	$1–15K

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Seasonality · by month i