AMTB · TickerCove

AMTBAmerant Bancorp Inc.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $29.42 · now $29.42 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AMTB has typically landed between $25.27 and $34.68 — a range of −14.1% to +17.9% from the issuance price $29.42.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,000 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-08-29 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($29.42) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$29.42 · 92% of range

$16.48 low$30.58 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.1%

typical move · IQR 13.8%

−14.1%worst (p90)+17.9%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where AMTB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $29.42 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $29.42 (+0.0%)
typical $29.44 (+0.1%)
middle 50% $27.42–$31.47
90% range $25.27–$34.68

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,000 windows spanning 2018-08-29 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2018-09-05	−55.1%	−55.3%	+0.0%
2018-10-25	−52.4%	−52.4%	+0.0%
2018-10-09	−49.5%	−49.5%	+0.0%
3 best
2018-08-29	+98.3%	+0.0%	+320.8%
2018-08-30	+75.0%	+0.0%	+260.8%
2020-10-28	+64.1%	+0.0%	+67.0%

2,000 overlapping windows · 2018-08-29 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

−0.6%

n=8

Feb

38%

+2.3%

n=8

Mar

38%

−4.8%

n=8

Apr

38%

−4.5%

n=8

May

63%

+5.3%

n=8

Jun

63%

+2.7%

n=8

Jul

50%

+2.4%

n=8

Aug

25%

+0.9%

n=8

Sep

33%

−0.3%

n=9

Oct

50%

−2.5%

n=8

Nov

75%

+10.3%

n=8

Dec

50%

+1.1%

n=8

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-04-27	Iafigliola Carlos	officer	Purchase	885 @ $22.80	$20K	+4.3% of holding	−5.2%	not yet — horizon still open	21,576	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-30	Iafigliola Carlos	officer	Purchase	1,000 @ $21.74	$22K	+6.7% of holding	+1.5%	+27.7%	15,964	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-27	Almeida Odilon	director	Purchase	4,816 @ $20.99	$101K	+963.2% of holding	+7.2%	+37.1%	5,316	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-13	Esterripa Juan	officer	Sale	1,000 @ $20.27	$20K	−5.0% of holding	+1.6%	+4.5%	19,134	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-28	KOPNISKY JACK L	director	Purchase	5,000 @ $20.21	$101K	ownership Δ n/a	+5.1%	−5.5%	5,000	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-31	Levine Howard A.	officer	Sale	3,628 @ $23.04	$84K	−50.7% of holding	−0.0%	−23.1%	3,523	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

211 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-21	Cragg Lee Ann	officer	Withheld for tax	49	152	Form 4
2026-07-21	Cragg Lee Ann	officer	Option exercise	201	807	Form 4
2026-07-21	Cragg Lee Ann	officer	Option exercise	201	201	Form 4
2026-06-17	Nursey Michael E.	officer	Withheld for tax	328	3,114	Form 4
2026-06-17	Nursey Michael E.	officer	Option exercise	1,343	4,030	Form 4
2026-06-17	Nursey Michael E.	officer	Option exercise	1,343	3,442	Form 4
2026-06-08	Fleitas Armando	officer	Award / grant	1,093	1,093	Form 4
2026-06-02	Marturet M. Gustavo	director	Award / grant	2,885	2,885	Form 4
2026-06-02	Lutoff-Perlo Lisa	director	Award / grant	2,885	2,885	Form 4
2026-06-02	KOPNISKY JACK L	director	Award / grant	2,885	2,885	Form 4
2026-06-02	MORRISON PATRICIA	director	Award / grant	2,885	2,885	Form 4
2026-06-02	Almeida Odilon	director	Award / grant	2,885	2,885	Form 4
2026-06-02	Rucker Ashaki	director	Award / grant	2,885	2,885	Form 4
2026-06-02	Knight Erin D.	director	Award / grant	2,885	2,885	Form 4
2026-06-02	Suarez Oscar	director	Award / grant	2,885	2,885	Form 4
2026-06-02	Quill John Walton	director	Award / grant	2,885	2,885	Form 4
2026-06-02	Wilson Millar	director	Award / grant	2,885	2,885	Form 4
2026-06-01	Calderon Sharymar	officer	Withheld for tax	967	20,429	Form 4
2026-06-01	Calderon Sharymar	officer	Option exercise	3,971	21,396	Form 4
2026-06-01	Calderon Sharymar	officer	Option exercise	2,102	0	Form 4
2026-06-01	Calderon Sharymar	officer	Option exercise	1,869	0	Form 4
2026-05-11	Fleitas Armando	officer	Withheld for tax	204	9,851	Form 4
2026-05-11	Fleitas Armando	officer	Option exercise	834	0	Form 4
2026-05-11	Fleitas Armando	officer	Option exercise	834	10,055	Form 4
2026-05-07	Wilson Millar	director	Option exercise	3,761	0	Form 4
2026-05-07	Knight Erin D.	director	Option exercise	3,761	10,007	Form 4
2026-05-07	Knight Erin D.	director	Option exercise	3,761	0	Form 4
2026-05-07	Quill John Walton	director	Option exercise	3,761	21,079	Form 4
2026-05-07	Quill John Walton	director	Option exercise	3,761	0	Form 4
2026-05-07	Rucker Ashaki	director	Option exercise	3,761	9,991	Form 4
2026-05-07	Rucker Ashaki	director	Option exercise	3,761	0	Form 4
2026-05-07	Wilson Millar	director	Option exercise	3,761	116,010	Form 4
2026-05-07	Suarez Oscar	director	Option exercise	3,761	11,732	Form 4
2026-05-07	Suarez Oscar	director	Option exercise	3,761	0	Form 4
2026-05-07	Lutoff-Perlo Lisa	director	Option exercise	3,761	4,261	Form 4
2026-05-07	Lutoff-Perlo Lisa	director	Option exercise	3,761	0	Form 4
2026-05-07	Dana Pamella J	director	Option exercise	3,761	27,524	Form 4
2026-05-07	Dana Pamella J	director	Option exercise	3,761	0	Form 4
2026-05-07	Almeida Odilon	director	Option exercise	3,761	9,077	Form 4
2026-05-07	Almeida Odilon	director	Option exercise	3,761	0	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i