AMSFAMERISAFE, Inc.Financial Services · Insurance - Specialtyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $24.71 · now $24.71 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AMSF has typically landed between $22.33 and $27.11 — a range of −9.6% to +9.7% from the issuance price $24.71.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($24.71) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AMSF has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $24.71 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$22.33worst · -9.6%$27.11best · +9.7%
  • now $24.71 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $24.55 (-0.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $23.54–$25.57
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $22.33–$27.11
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2007-07-11−33.2%−33.2%+2.8%
2008-09-10−32.1%−32.1%+0.6%
2007-07-09−31.7%−31.7%+0.0%
3 best
2008-12-01+44.5%+0.0%+47.5%
2008-11-20+44.0%+0.0%+46.7%
2008-11-21+40.9%+0.0%+45.0%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
−0.0%
n=20
Feb
55%
−0.2%
n=20
Mar
65%
+2.4%
n=20
Apr
45%
−0.4%
n=20
May
60%
+0.4%
n=20
Jun
65%
+1.7%
n=20
Jul
55%
−0.2%
n=20
Aug
60%
−0.4%
n=20
Sep
40%
−0.2%
n=20
Oct
70%
+5.6%
n=20
Nov
50%
+2.1%
n=20
Dec
50%
+1.6%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$44$252025-11-20: 1 insider sale, $50K — Omiridis Anastasios2025-11-07: 1 insider sale, $50K — Omiridis Anastasios2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $60K2025-11: 2 open-market sales, $100K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Omiridis Anastasios — Sale on 2025-11-20, filed same dayofficer Omiridis Anastasios — Sale on 2025-11-07, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-11-20Omiridis AnastasiosofficerSale1,247 @ $40.21$50K−32.9% of holding−5.4%−36.0%2,539Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-07Omiridis AnastasiosofficerSale1,235 @ $40.74$50K−24.6% of holding−6.6%−32.1%3,786Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-05Omiridis AnastasiosofficerSale1,343 @ $44.75$60K−37.3% of holding+1.1%−19.5%2,253Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

68 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-01Wise Raymond F. Jr.officerWithheld for tax1,8468,972Form 4
2026-08-01Wise Raymond F. Jr.officerOption exercise4,2579,878Form 4
2026-08-01Wise Raymond F. Jr.officerOption exercise4,25710,818Form 4
2026-08-01Wise Raymond F. Jr.officerOption exercise4,25710,818Form 4
2026-06-10MORRIS JARED AdirectorAward / grant2,34025,075Form 4
2026-06-10GARCIA PHILIP AdirectorAward / grant2,34027,243Form 4
2026-06-10TRAYNOR SEANdirectorAward / grant2,34018,326Form 4
2026-06-10Fontenot Teri G.directorAward / grant2,34014,008Form 4
2026-06-10BROWN MICHAEL JdirectorAward / grant2,34015,761Form 4
2026-06-10Roach RandydirectorAward / grant2,34018,862Form 4
2026-06-10Greer Billy BdirectorAward / grant2,3408,861Form 4
2026-05-07Ramos Guillermo AofficerAward / grant2,97035,973Form 4
2026-05-07Ramos Guillermo AofficerAward / grant33,00333,003Form 4
2026-04-27Lestage Henry O IVofficerAward / grant22,12122,121Form 4
2026-04-27Lestage Henry O IVofficerAward / grant1,99124,112Form 4
2026-03-12Frost G. JanelledirectorWithheld for tax10,509129,531Form 4
2026-03-12Gagliano Vincent J.officerWithheld for tax2,70831,523Form 4
2026-03-12Shirley Kathryn HoushofficerWithheld for tax2,50124,751Form 4
2026-03-12Wise Raymond F. Jr.officerWithheld for tax2,4686,561Form 4
2026-03-12Shirley Kathryn HoushofficerAward / grant5,90527,252Form 4
2026-03-12Gagliano Vincent J.officerAward / grant6,39234,231Form 4
2026-03-12Frost G. JanelledirectorAward / grant24,814140,040Form 4
2026-03-12Wise Raymond F. Jr.officerAward / grant5,6949,029Form 4
2026-03-09Frost G. JanelledirectorAward / grant8,32618,274Form 4
2026-03-09Gagliano Vincent J.officerAward / grant2,3865,234Form 4
2026-03-09Wise Raymond F. Jr.officerAward / grant2,22514,135Form 4
2026-03-09Shirley Kathryn HoushofficerAward / grant2,1184,618Form 4
2026-03-01Frost G. JanelledirectorWithheld for tax1,883115,226Form 4
2026-03-01Gagliano Vincent J.officerWithheld for tax53127,839Form 4
2026-03-01Wise Raymond F. Jr.officerWithheld for tax5033,335Form 4
2026-03-01Shirley Kathryn HoushofficerWithheld for tax47821,347Form 4
2026-03-01Wise Raymond F. Jr.officerOption exercise1,04411,910Form 4
2026-03-01Frost G. JanelledirectorOption exercise4,4019,948Form 4
2026-03-01Shirley Kathryn HoushofficerOption exercise1,0472,500Form 4
2026-03-01Gagliano Vincent J.officerOption exercise1,1332,848Form 4
2026-03-01Frost G. JanelledirectorOption exercise4,401117,109Form 4
2026-03-01Frost G. JanelledirectorOption exercise4,401117,109Form 4
2026-03-01Gagliano Vincent J.officerOption exercise1,13328,370Form 4
2026-03-01Wise Raymond F. Jr.officerOption exercise1,0443,838Form 4
2026-03-01Wise Raymond F. Jr.officerOption exercise1,0443,838Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.