Issued 2026-09-16 at $38.40 · now $38.40 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AMRZ has typically landed between $32.86 and $43.58 — a range of −14.4% to +13.5% from the issuance price $38.40.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
290 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-06-23 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($38.40) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AMRZ has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $38.4 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $38.4 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $38.06 (-0.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $35.71–$40.4
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $32.86–$43.58
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 290 windows spanning 2025-06-23 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-02-19 | −17.8% | −17.8% | +3.0% |
| 2026-02-27 | −17.2% | −19.1% | +0.0% |
| 2026-08-04 | −17.1% | −17.4% | +2.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-01-21 | +21.5% | −1.9% | +21.5% |
| 2026-01-23 | +21.4% | −3.0% | +21.4% |
| 2026-01-28 | +21.2% | −1.9% | +22.8% |
290 overlapping windows · 2025-06-23 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
0%
−2.7%
n=1
Feb
100%
+23.5%
n=1
Mar
0%
−13.8%
n=1
Apr
0%
−3.2%
n=1
May
100%
+1.3%
n=1
Jun
0%
−2.0%
n=1
Jul
50%
−2.5%
n=2
Aug
50%
−4.5%
n=2
Sep
0%
−9.4%
n=2
Oct
100%
+6.8%
n=1
Nov
0%
−0.6%
n=1
Dec
100%
+5.0%
n=1
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Jenisch Jan Philipp | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $42.53 | $638K | +0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,766,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Jenisch Jan Philipp | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $42.37 | $424K | +0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,751,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Jenisch Jan Philipp | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $42.53 | $85K | +0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 517,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Jenisch Jan Philipp | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $42.47 | $85K | +0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 519,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Jenisch Jan Philipp | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $42.44 | $42K | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,767,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Gibson Dwight Audley Konrad | director | Purchase | 5 @ $44.58 | $244 | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,199 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Sanche Jacques Wolf | director | Purchase | 4,150 @ $45.02 | $187K | +73.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 9,766 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-25 | Singleton Denise R | director | Purchase | 3,500 @ $44.12 | $154K | +87.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Forrest Nollaig | officer | Purchase | 1,500 @ $44.15 | $66K | +7.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 21,639 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-17 | Poletti Samuel Jonas | officer | Purchase | 2,510 @ $46.92 | $118K | +32.8% of holding | −13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,155 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Oran Baris | officer | Purchase | 3,000 @ $47.13 | $141K | +100.0% of holding | −11.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Clark Stephen S | officer | Purchase | 5,260 @ $47.31 | $249K | +97.8% of holding | −13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,637 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Gross Mario | officer | Purchase | 3,200 @ $46.62 | $149K | +9.2% of holding | −13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,117 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Oran Baris | officer | Purchase | 3,000 @ $47.38 | $142K | ownership Δ n/a | −13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Hill Jaime | officer | Purchase | 1,500 @ $47.12 | $71K | +5.3% of holding | −13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,698 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Brouwer Roald | officer | Purchase | 1,500 @ $46.36 | $70K | +7.5% of holding | −13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,490 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Gross Mario | officer | Purchase | 368 @ $46.38 | $17K | +1.0% of holding | −13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,485 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Forrest Nollaig | officer | Purchase | 2,000 @ $50.25 | $101K | +11.0% of holding | +10.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,139 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Brouwer Roald | officer | Purchase | 1,500 @ $49.84 | $75K | +8.2% of holding | +5.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,757 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-20 | Gross Mario | officer | Purchase | 1,200 @ $48.63 | $58K | +3.6% of holding | +6.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,747 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Jenisch Jan Philipp | director | Purchase | 7,000 @ $49.69 | $348K | +0.4% of holding | +12.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,735,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Jenisch Jan Philipp | director | Purchase | 3,000 @ $49.96 | $150K | +0.6% of holding | +12.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 515,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Jenisch Jan Philipp | director | Purchase | 3,001 @ $49.63 | $149K | +0.2% of holding | +12.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,728,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Jenisch Jan Philipp | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $48.72 | $97K | +0.1% of holding | +12.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,738,360 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Gross Mario | officer | Purchase | 1,800 @ $49.47 | $89K | +5.8% of holding | +12.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,747 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Jenisch Jan Philipp | director | Purchase | 1,640 @ $48.69 | $80K | +0.1% of holding | +12.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,740,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Jenisch Jan Philipp | director | Purchase | 1,360 @ $48.50 | $66K | +0.1% of holding | +12.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,736,360 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Gross Mario | officer | Purchase | 1,000 @ $48.63 | $49K | +3.1% of holding | +12.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,747 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Jenisch Jan Philipp | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $48.55 | $49K | +0.1% of holding | +12.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,741,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Jenisch Jan Philipp | director | Purchase | 13,417 @ $49.69 | $667K | +0.8% of holding | +12.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,716,999 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Jenisch Jan Philipp | director | Purchase | 8,000 @ $49.63 | $397K | +0.5% of holding | +12.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,724,999 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Jenisch Jan Philipp | director | Purchase | 7,000 @ $49.12 | $344K | +1.4% of holding | +12.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 512,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Clark Stephen S | officer | Purchase | 2 @ $52.75 | $114 | +0.0% of holding | −2.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,260 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Gross Mario | officer | Purchase | 2,000 @ $55.39 | $111K | +7.2% of holding | +2.8% | −43.8% | 29,747 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Brouwer Roald | officer | Purchase | 2,000 @ $54.88 | $110K | +12.3% of holding | +2.8% | −43.8% | 18,257 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Gross Mario | officer | Purchase | 1,200 @ $55.13 | $66K | +4.0% of holding | +2.8% | −43.8% | 30,947 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Hill Jaime | officer | Purchase | 1,000 @ $56.90 | $57K | +3.7% of holding | +1.9% | −42.7% | 28,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-11 | Brouwer Roald | officer | Purchase | 3,000 @ $58.72 | $176K | +22.6% of holding | −1.1% | −42.5% | 16,257 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-11 | Hill Jaime | officer | Purchase | 1,000 @ $58.91 | $59K | +3.8% of holding | −1.1% | −42.5% | 27,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-10 | Johnston Ian A | officer | Purchase | 4,250 @ $58.94 | $250K | +20.4% of holding | −3.7% | −43.3% | 25,110 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Hill Jaime | officer | Purchase | 3,184 @ $56.34 | $179K | +14.0% of holding | −3.4% | −41.6% | 26,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Jenisch Jan Philipp | director | Purchase | 60,000 @ $58.05 | $3.5M | +3.7% of holding | −5.7% | −39.0% | 1,703,582 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Johnston Ian A | officer | Purchase | 995 @ $63.92 | $64K | +5.7% of holding | −12.8% | −41.5% | 18,339 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Johnston Ian A | officer | Purchase | 205 @ $63.91 | $13K | +1.1% of holding | −12.8% | −41.5% | 18,544 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Gangestad Nicholas C | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $47.34 | $95K | +67.6% of holding | +11.3% | −7.0% | 4,958 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | Hill Jaime | officer | Purchase | 4,000 @ $50.69 | $203K | +28.4% of holding | +2.1% | −3.2% | 18,101 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | Brouwer Roald | officer | Purchase | 3,000 @ $51.78 | $155K | +60.0% of holding | −0.7% | −3.0% | 8,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | Brouwer Roald | officer | Purchase | 1,000 @ $51.76 | $52K | +12.5% of holding | −0.7% | −3.0% | 9,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Jenisch Jan Philipp | director | Purchase | 55,000 @ $52.88 | $2.9M | +12.2% of holding | +0.1% | −7.5% | 505,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-30 | Jenisch Jan Philipp | director | Purchase | 55,000 @ $52.64 | $2.9M | +3.8% of holding | +0.1% | −7.5% | 1,505,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | Brouwer Roald | officer | Purchase | 2,000 @ $51.88 | $104K | +66.7% of holding | −10.9% | +18.4% | 5,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-22 | Hill Jaime | officer | Purchase | 500 @ $49.59 | $25K | +3.7% of holding | −5.0% | +21.4% | 14,101 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Hill Jaime | officer | Purchase | 4,000 @ $51.99 | $208K | +41.7% of holding | +3.7% | +5.0% | 13,601 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Clark Stephen S | officer | Purchase | 1,100 @ $51.85 | $57K | +31.4% of holding | +3.7% | +5.0% | 4,600 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Clark Stephen S | officer | Purchase | 1,040 @ $51.83 | $54K | +53.1% of holding | +3.7% | +5.0% | 3,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Clark Stephen S | officer | Purchase | 1,000 @ $51.82 | $52K | +104.2% of holding | +3.7% | +5.0% | 1,960 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Clark Stephen S | officer | Purchase | 500 @ $51.84 | $26K | +16.7% of holding | +3.7% | +5.0% | 3,500 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Clark Stephen S | officer | Purchase | 400 @ $51.86 | $21K | +8.7% of holding | +3.7% | +5.0% | 5,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Clark Stephen S | officer | Purchase | 367 @ $51.80 | $19K | +125.7% of holding | +3.7% | +5.0% | 659 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Clark Stephen S | officer | Purchase | 301 @ $51.81 | $16K | +45.7% of holding | +3.7% | +5.0% | 960 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
51 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Brouwer Roald | officer | Award / grant | 233 | 19,990 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Ladhani Holli C. | director | Withheld for tax | 740 | 2,218 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | McKelvy Michael E | director | Withheld for tax | 740 | 2,218 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Gibson Dwight Audley Konrad | director | Withheld for tax | 740 | 2,218 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Gangestad Nicholas C | director | Withheld for tax | 740 | 4,218 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Rivkin Robert S. | director | Withheld for tax | 740 | 2,218 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Wilbur Maria Cristina Alapag | director | Withheld for tax | 190 | 2,958 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Roth Pellanda Katja Nicole | director | Withheld for tax | 190 | 2,768 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Oleas Jurg Amadeo | director | Withheld for tax | 157 | 20,916 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Ladhani Holli C. | director | Award / grant | 2,976 | 5,194 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Roth Pellanda Katja Nicole | director | Award / grant | 2,976 | 5,744 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Rivkin Robert S. | director | Award / grant | 2,976 | 5,194 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Oleas Jurg Amadeo | director | Award / grant | 2,976 | 23,892 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Sanche Jacques Wolf | director | Award / grant | 2,976 | 5,616 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | McKelvy Michael E | director | Award / grant | 2,976 | 5,194 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | NEWMAN DONALD P | director | Award / grant | 2,976 | 2,976 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Wilbur Maria Cristina Alapag | director | Award / grant | 2,976 | 5,934 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Gibson Dwight Audley Konrad | director | Award / grant | 2,976 | 5,194 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-21 | Gangestad Nicholas C | director | Award / grant | 2,976 | 7,194 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-21 | Gosa James J | officer | Withheld for tax | 14,541 | 41,268 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Forrest Nollaig | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,681 | 18,139 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Johnston Ian A | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,941 | 20,860 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Hill Jaime | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,928 | 22,816 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Jenisch Jan Philipp | director | Award / grant | 138,582 | 1,643,582 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Johnston Ian A | officer | Award / grant | 4,257 | 22,801 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Gross Mario | officer | Award / grant | 4,257 | 27,747 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Hill Jaime | officer | Award / grant | 6,385 | 24,744 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Forrest Nollaig | officer | Award / grant | 11,157 | 22,820 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Brouwer Roald | officer | Award / grant | 4,257 | 13,257 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Poletti Samuel Jonas | officer | Award / grant | 4,256 | 7,645 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Jenisch Jan Philipp | director | Award / grant | 620,715 | 620,715 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-11 | Ladhani Holli C. | director | Award / grant | 2,958 | 2,958 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-11 | Wilbur Maria Cristina Alapag | director | Award / grant | 2,958 | 3,148 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-11 | Drew Theresa J | director | Award / grant | 2,958 | 2,958 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-11 | Roth Pellanda Katja Nicole | director | Award / grant | 2,958 | 2,958 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-11 | Rivkin Robert S. | director | Award / grant | 2,958 | 2,958 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-11 | Gangestad Nicholas C | director | Award / grant | 2,958 | 2,958 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-11 | Gibson Dwight Audley Konrad | director | Award / grant | 2,958 | 2,958 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-11 | Gosa James J | officer | Award / grant | 18,687 | 55,639 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-11 | Gosa James J | officer | Award / grant | 36,952 | 36,952 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.