AMRN · TickerCove

AMRNAmarin Corporation plcHealthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $13.84 · now $13.84 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AMRN has typically landed between $10.64 and $17.62 — a range of −23.2% to +27.3% from the issuance price $13.84.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,996 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($13.84) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$13.84 · 5% of range

$13.5 low$20.25 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−3.2%

typical move · IQR 19.1%

−23.2%worst (p90)+27.3%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where AMRN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $13.84 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $13.84 (+0.0%)
typical $13.4 (-3.2%)
middle 50% $12.08–$14.73
90% range $10.64–$17.62

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,996 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2007-04-19	−83.7%	−85.3%	+1.1%
2007-04-23	−82.5%	−85.4%	+0.0%
2007-04-20	−82.3%	−85.2%	+1.6%
3 best
2018-09-17	+629.0%	−2.5%	+629.0%
2018-09-18	+628.6%	+0.0%	+647.5%
2018-09-21	+616.7%	+0.0%	+616.7%

4,996 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

60%

+7.1%

n=20

Feb

25%

−1.0%

n=20

Mar

45%

+4.3%

n=20

Apr

40%

+4.9%

n=20

May

40%

−1.6%

n=20

Jun

55%

+2.3%

n=20

Jul

15%

−6.6%

n=20

Aug

55%

+3.2%

n=20

Sep

40%

+11.6%

n=20

Oct

35%

−3.6%

n=20

Nov

50%

+4.4%

n=20

Dec

40%

−3.1%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

214 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-01	Fishman Peter L.	officer	Withheld for tax	155	7,619	Form 4
2026-08-01	Fishman Peter L.	officer	Award / grant	313	0	Form 4
2026-08-01	Fishman Peter L.	officer	Option exercise	313	7,774	Form 4
2026-08-01	Fishman Peter L.	officer	Option exercise	313	7,774	Form 4
2026-07-01	Keenan David Paul	officer	Withheld for tax	1,926	13,470	Form 4
2026-07-01	Ketchum Steven B	officer	Withheld for tax	1,887	42,680	Form 4
2026-07-01	Provoost Jonathan	officer	Withheld for tax	1,264	4,624	Form 4
2026-07-01	Fishman Peter L.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,206	7,461	Form 4
2026-07-01	Keenan David Paul	officer	Award / grant	3,688	0	Form 4
2026-07-01	Provoost Jonathan	officer	Award / grant	3,688	0	Form 4
2026-07-01	Ketchum Steven B	officer	Award / grant	3,688	0	Form 4
2026-07-01	Fishman Peter L.	officer	Award / grant	2,447	0	Form 4
2026-07-01	Keenan David Paul	officer	Option exercise	3,688	15,396	Form 4
2026-07-01	Fishman Peter L.	officer	Option exercise	2,447	8,667	Form 4
2026-07-01	Ketchum Steven B	officer	Option exercise	3,688	44,567	Form 4
2026-07-01	Provoost Jonathan	officer	Option exercise	3,688	5,888	Form 4
2026-07-01	Fishman Peter L.	officer	Option exercise	2,447	8,667	Form 4
2026-07-01	Keenan David Paul	officer	Option exercise	3,688	15,396	Form 4
2026-07-01	Ketchum Steven B	officer	Option exercise	3,688	44,567	Form 4
2026-07-01	Provoost Jonathan	officer	Option exercise	3,688	5,888	Form 4
2026-06-26	Berg Aaron	officer	Withheld for tax	3,197	85,648	Form 4
2026-06-26	Berg Aaron	officer	Option exercise	6,250	6,250	Form 4
2026-06-26	Berg Aaron	officer	Option exercise	6,250	88,845	Form 4
2026-06-26	Berg Aaron	officer	Option exercise	6,250	88,845	Form 4
2026-04-18	O'Connor Oliver	director	Withheld for tax	438	801	Form 4
2026-04-18	Sullivan Diane E.	director	Withheld for tax	403	836	Form 4
2026-04-18	Bonfiglio Patrice Eadon	director	Withheld for tax	403	836	Form 4
2026-04-18	Horn Keith	director	Withheld for tax	403	836	Form 4
2026-04-18	Sterling Louis III	director	Withheld for tax	403	4,049	Form 4
2026-04-18	Odysseas Kostas D	director	Withheld for tax	403	836	Form 4
2026-04-18	Cohen Paul	director	Withheld for tax	403	836	Form 4
2026-04-18	O'Connor Oliver	director	Option exercise	838	838	Form 4
2026-04-18	Sullivan Diane E.	director	Option exercise	838	838	Form 4
2026-04-18	Cohen Paul	director	Option exercise	838	838	Form 4
2026-04-18	Bonfiglio Patrice Eadon	director	Option exercise	838	838	Form 4
2026-04-18	Horn Keith	director	Option exercise	838	838	Form 4
2026-04-18	Odysseas Kostas D	director	Option exercise	838	838	Form 4
2026-04-18	Sterling Louis III	director	Option exercise	838	838	Form 4
2026-04-18	O'Connor Oliver	director	Option exercise	838	1,239	Form 4
2026-04-18	Sullivan Diane E.	director	Option exercise	838	1,239	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i