Issued 2026-09-16 at $22.86 · now $22.86 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AMRC has typically landed between $16.47 and $31.71 — a range of −28.0% to +38.7% from the issuance price $22.86.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,042 overlapping 1 month windows · 2010-07-22 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($22.86) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AMRC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $22.86 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $22.86 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $22.22 (-2.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $19.05–$25.39
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $16.47–$31.71
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,042 windows spanning 2010-07-22 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-01-31 | −57.6% | −57.6% | +0.0% |
| 2025-02-04 | −54.6% | −54.6% | +3.1% |
| 2025-01-30 | −53.1% | −53.1% | +0.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-05-01 | +78.2% | +0.0% | +78.2% |
| 2024-04-30 | +73.8% | −2.1% | +73.8% |
| 2024-05-02 | +70.4% | +0.0% | +70.4% |
4,042 overlapping windows · 2010-07-22 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~17 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
56%
−3.9%
n=16
Feb
50%
−2.7%
n=16
Mar
44%
+3.4%
n=16
Apr
25%
−5.7%
n=16
May
81%
+11.0%
n=16
Jun
69%
+2.4%
n=16
Jul
63%
+3.4%
n=16
Aug
59%
+4.6%
n=17
Sep
47%
+2.4%
n=17
Oct
56%
+3.9%
n=16
Nov
56%
+3.0%
n=16
Dec
50%
−1.5%
n=16
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Sakellaris George P | director | Purchase | 3,000 @ $22.13 | $66K | +0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,013,597 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Sakellaris George P | director | Purchase | 4,000 @ $22.84 | $91K | +0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,010,597 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-26 | Sakellaris George P | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $21.92 | $22K | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,006,597 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Sakellaris George P | director | Purchase | 4,062 @ $22.03 | $89K | +0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,005,597 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Sakellaris George P | director | Purchase | 938 @ $21.60 | $20K | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,001,535 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Sutton Joseph W. | director | Purchase | 9,700 @ $20.87 | $202K | +13.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 80,246 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Sakellaris George P | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $20.91 | $105K | +0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,000,597 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Miller Jennifer L | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $20.96 | $42K | +6.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 34,546 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Cox Brian C | director | Purchase | 4,625 @ $21.64 | $100K | +11.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 44,325 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Sakellaris George P | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $25.90 | $26K | +0.1% of holding | −10.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 995,597 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-10 | Cox Brian C | director | Purchase | 39,700 @ $25.07 | $995K | ownership Δ n/a | −8.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 39,700 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Sakellaris George P | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $25.27 | $25K | +0.1% of holding | −8.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 994,597 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Sakellaris George P | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $25.95 | $130K | +0.5% of holding | −5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 993,597 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | WISNESKI FRANCIS V JR | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $36.12 | $181K | −16.5% of holding | −22.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,232 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | WISNESKI FRANCIS V JR | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $30.29 | $303K | −28.4% of holding | −3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 25,232 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Miller Jennifer L | director | Sale | 7,642 @ $32.13 | $246K | −23.8% of holding | −12.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,469 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Miller Jennifer L | director | Sale | 2,358 @ $32.73 | $77K | −9.6% of holding | −12.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,111 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | STAVROPOULOS NICKOLAS | director | Sale | 1,355 @ $34.00 | $46K | −8.8% of holding | −19.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,111 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Maltezos Louis P | officer | Sale | 306 @ $25.31 | $8K | −0.9% of holding | −8.8% | −24.9% | 32,095 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-12 | Chiplock Mark | officer | Sale | 273 @ $25.31 | $7K | −14.1% of holding | −8.8% | −24.9% | 1,666 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-12 | Corrsin David J | director | Sale | 19 @ $25.31 | $481 | −4.1% of holding | −8.8% | −24.9% | 441 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-10 | Corrsin David J | director | Sale | 50 @ $26.34 | $1K | −11.7% of holding | −2.0% | −26.7% | 379 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-20 | STAVROPOULOS NICKOLAS | director | Sale | 15,700 @ $34.15 | $536K | −52.7% of holding | −13.1% | −48.3% | 14,111 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | STAVROPOULOS NICKOLAS | director | Sale | 400 @ $34.00 | $14K | −2.8% of holding | −16.5% | −46.6% | 14,111 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | STAVROPOULOS NICKOLAS | director | Sale | 245 @ $34.05 | $8K | −1.7% of holding | −18.5% | −26.7% | 14,111 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-12 | STAVROPOULOS NICKOLAS | director | Sale | 200 @ $34.00 | $7K | −1.4% of holding | −21.3% | −30.7% | 14,111 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-28 | STAVROPOULOS NICKOLAS | director | Sale | 100 @ $34.00 | $3K | −0.7% of holding | −7.2% | −45.2% | 14,111 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-13 | Chiplock Mark | officer | Sale | 6,599 @ $41.92 | $277K | −51.6% of holding | −18.9% | −44.7% | 6,189 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-13 | Chiplock Mark | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $44.92 | $225K | −80.8% of holding | −18.9% | −44.7% | 1,189 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-13 | Chiplock Mark | officer | Sale | 5,200 @ $41.57 | $216K | −28.9% of holding | −18.9% | −44.7% | 12,788 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-09 | Chiplock Mark | officer | Sale | 7,100 @ $39.97 | $284K | −85.7% of holding | −10.7% | −40.0% | 1,189 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-08 | Chiplock Mark | officer | Sale | 3,800 @ $39.75 | $151K | −76.2% of holding | −4.7% | −33.1% | 1,189 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-07 | Chiplock Mark | officer | Sale | 5,900 @ $39.51 | $233K | −83.2% of holding | −4.9% | −35.3% | 1,189 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-06 | Chiplock Mark | officer | Sale | 5,900 @ $38.92 | $230K | −83.2% of holding | −5.7% | −35.2% | 1,189 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Chiplock Mark | officer | Sale | 5,602 @ $37.95 | $213K | −82.5% of holding | +2.1% | −33.2% | 1,189 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | Chiplock Mark | officer | Sale | 269 @ $28.00 | $8K | −18.4% of holding | +43.8% | −11.4% | 1,189 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | Corrsin David J | director | Sale | 19 @ $28.00 | $532 | −4.8% of holding | +43.8% | −11.4% | 379 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Corrsin David J | director | Sale | 19 @ $27.04 | $514 | −5.2% of holding | +37.9% | −8.9% | 348 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-19 | Chiplock Mark | officer | Sale | 95 @ $11.92 | $1K | −11.8% of holding | −16.0% | +124.9% | 708 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-19 | Corrsin David J | director | Sale | 64 @ $11.92 | $763 | −12.0% of holding | −16.0% | +124.9% | 471 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-19 | Corrsin David J | director | Sale | 36 @ $11.92 | $429 | −10.2% of holding | −16.0% | +124.9% | 317 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-10 | WISNESKI FRANCIS V JR | director | Purchase | 400 @ $10.17 | $4K | +2.0% of holding | +0.9% | +123.8% | 20,346 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | Corrsin David J | director | Sale | 21 @ $10.22 | $215 | −7.7% of holding | +0.9% | +123.8% | 252 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-06 | Sakellaris George P | director | Purchase | 25,000 @ $9.27 | $232K | +2.6% of holding | +28.0% | +165.4% | 978,638 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-06 | WISNESKI FRANCIS V JR | director | Purchase | 1,908 @ $9.23 | $18K | +10.6% of holding | +28.0% | +165.4% | 19,946 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-05 | Sakellaris George P | director | Purchase | 50,000 @ $9.74 | $487K | +5.5% of holding | +20.8% | +149.8% | 953,638 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | Patton Charles R. | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $9.96 | $50K | +142.7% of holding | +20.8% | +149.8% | 8,503 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | WISNESKI FRANCIS V JR | director | Purchase | 300 @ $9.56 | $3K | +1.7% of holding | +20.8% | +149.8% | 18,038 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Sakellaris George P | director | Purchase | 50,000 @ $9.96 | $498K | +5.9% of holding | +28.9% | +155.2% | 903,638 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | WISNESKI FRANCIS V JR | director | Purchase | 3,500 @ $9.67 | $34K | +24.6% of holding | +28.9% | +155.2% | 17,738 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | Johnson Claire D'Oyly-Hughes | director | Purchase | 1,800 @ $9.95 | $18K | ownership Δ n/a | +28.9% | +155.2% | 1,800 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-03 | Miller Jennifer L | director | Sale | 22,060 @ $20.83 | $460K | −38.5% of holding | −50.0% | +13.5% | 35,165 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-03 | Miller Jennifer L | director | Sale | 17,940 @ $21.35 | $383K | −51.0% of holding | −50.0% | +13.5% | 17,225 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
173 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Chiplock Mark | officer | Option exercise | 1,625 | 3,375 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Sakellaris George P | director | Option exercise | 6,250 | 1,019,847 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Chiplock Mark | officer | Option exercise | 1,625 | 3,291 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Maltezos Louis P | officer | Option exercise | 2,125 | 4,625 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Maltezos Louis P | officer | Option exercise | 2,125 | 34,220 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Christakis Peter | officer | Option exercise | 1,750 | 3,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Christakis Peter | officer | Option exercise | 1,750 | 15,106 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Bulgarino Nicole E | director | Option exercise | 875 | 4,875 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Bulgarino Nicole E | director | Option exercise | 1,875 | 61,171 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Sakellaris George P | director | Option exercise | 6,250 | 11,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Corrsin David J | director | Award / grant | 25,000 | 25,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Cox Brian C | director | Award / grant | 5,132 | 5,132 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Miller Jennifer L | director | Option exercise | 10,435 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Johnson Claire D'Oyly-Hughes | director | Option exercise | 10,435 | 20,546 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Johnson Claire D'Oyly-Hughes | director | Award / grant | 4,812 | 4,812 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Johnson Claire D'Oyly-Hughes | director | Option exercise | 10,435 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Sutton Joseph W. | director | Option exercise | 10,435 | 70,546 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Sutton Joseph W. | director | Award / grant | 4,812 | 4,812 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Sutton Joseph W. | director | Option exercise | 10,435 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Miller Jennifer L | director | Option exercise | 10,435 | 32,546 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Miller Jennifer L | director | Award / grant | 4,812 | 4,812 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | STAVROPOULOS NICKOLAS | director | Option exercise | 10,435 | 24,546 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | STAVROPOULOS NICKOLAS | director | Award / grant | 4,812 | 4,812 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | STAVROPOULOS NICKOLAS | director | Option exercise | 10,435 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | WISNESKI FRANCIS V JR | director | Option exercise | 10,435 | 35,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | WISNESKI FRANCIS V JR | director | Award / grant | 4,812 | 4,812 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | WISNESKI FRANCIS V JR | director | Option exercise | 10,435 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Patton Charles R. | director | Option exercise | 10,435 | 23,824 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Patton Charles R. | director | Option exercise | 10,435 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | WISNESKI FRANCIS V JR | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 30,232 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | WISNESKI FRANCIS V JR | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 15,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | WISNESKI FRANCIS V JR | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 35,232 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | WISNESKI FRANCIS V JR | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Miller Jennifer L | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 32,111 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Bulgarino Nicole E | director | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Christakis Peter | officer | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Maltezos Louis P | officer | Award / grant | 30,000 | 30,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-18 | Miller Jennifer L | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | STAVROPOULOS NICKOLAS | director | Option exercise | 1,355 | 15,466 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | STAVROPOULOS NICKOLAS | director | Option exercise | 1,355 | 6,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.