Issued 2026-09-16 at $189.49 · now $189.49 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AMR has typically landed between $148.48 and $250.28 — a range of −21.6% to +32.1% from the issuance price $189.49.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,473 overlapping 1 month windows · 2016-08-18 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($189.49) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AMR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $189.49 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $189.49 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $194.17 (+2.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $171.24–$217.09
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $148.48–$250.28
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,473 windows spanning 2016-08-18 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2019-11-05 | −74.6% | −74.6% | +0.0% |
| 2019-11-04 | −74.4% | −74.4% | +0.0% |
| 2019-10-31 | −73.6% | −73.6% | +1.3% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2016-08-18 | +255.5% | +0.0% | +261.5% |
| 2016-09-09 | +160.7% | +0.0% | +165.2% |
| 2020-09-09 | +117.8% | +0.0% | +127.5% |
2,473 overlapping windows · 2016-08-18 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~11 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
−0.1%
n=10
Feb
30%
+2.0%
n=10
Mar
20%
−4.5%
n=10
Apr
30%
+5.6%
n=10
May
60%
+6.0%
n=10
Jun
50%
−1.1%
n=10
Jul
70%
+1.9%
n=10
Aug
70%
+12.7%
n=10
Sep
55%
+22.8%
n=11
Oct
40%
+4.7%
n=10
Nov
60%
−4.9%
n=10
Dec
70%
+14.2%
n=10
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 2,891 @ $226.92 | $656K | +0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,034,990 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-08 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 2,749 @ $226.13 | $622K | +0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,032,099 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-08 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 2,109 @ $225.21 | $475K | +0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,029,350 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-08 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 1,847 @ $223.85 | $413K | +0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,027,241 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-08 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 305 @ $227.88 | $70K | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,035,295 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-08 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 99 @ $229.39 | $23K | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,035,394 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-28 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 1,271 @ $226.48 | $288K | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,021,665 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 1,201 @ $228.61 | $275K | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,023,729 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 863 @ $227.35 | $196K | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,022,528 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 690 @ $231.12 | $159K | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,024,620 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 514 @ $232.83 | $120K | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,025,134 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 210 @ $234.24 | $49K | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,025,344 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 201 @ $229.83 | $46K | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,023,930 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 50 @ $235.47 | $12K | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,025,394 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 2,914 @ $216.22 | $630K | +0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,018,308 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-25 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 2,086 @ $216.97 | $453K | +0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,020,394 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-21 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 9,935 @ $211.09 | $2.1M | +1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,015,394 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Gorzynski Michael | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $208.92 | $2.1M | +1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 654,025 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 3,241 @ $209.03 | $677K | +0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,003,635 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 1,824 @ $209.97 | $383K | +0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,005,459 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 5,976 @ $193.68 | $1.2M | +0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 995,031 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-20 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 5,363 @ $194.48 | $1.0M | +0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,000,394 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-20 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 1,234 @ $192.80 | $238K | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 989,055 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-20 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 1,151 @ $192.09 | $221K | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 987,821 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-20 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 943 @ $190.77 | $180K | +0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 986,670 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-20 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 333 @ $189.84 | $63K | +0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 985,727 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-12 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 6,136 @ $200.49 | $1.2M | +0.6% of holding | −26.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 981,530 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 3,864 @ $201.11 | $777K | +0.4% of holding | −26.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 985,394 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Whitehead Jason E. | officer | Sale | 1,694 @ $211.56 | $358K | −11.8% of holding | −25.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,657 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Whitehead Jason E. | officer | Sale | 1,388 @ $212.52 | $295K | −11.0% of holding | −25.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,269 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Whitehead Jason E. | officer | Sale | 819 @ $213.34 | $175K | −7.3% of holding | −25.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,450 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Whitehead Jason E. | officer | Purchase | 99 @ $214.94 | $21K | −0.9% of holding | −25.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,351 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Manno Mark Matthew | officer | Sale | 460 @ $214.64 | $99K | −10.4% of holding | −25.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,966 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 4,369 @ $191.05 | $835K | +0.4% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 975,304 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 3,678 @ $190.45 | $700K | +0.4% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 970,935 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 3,500 @ $189.12 | $662K | +0.4% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 967,257 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 911 @ $185.14 | $169K | +0.1% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 962,489 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 705 @ $188.14 | $133K | +0.1% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 963,757 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 596 @ $183.05 | $109K | +0.1% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 960,990 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 588 @ $184.02 | $108K | +0.1% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 961,578 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 563 @ $187.10 | $105K | +0.1% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 963,052 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 90 @ $192.14 | $17K | +0.0% of holding | +0.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 975,394 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 2,600 @ $189.37 | $492K | +0.3% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 870,237 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 1,676 @ $193.17 | $324K | +0.2% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 873,637 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 1,362 @ $192.23 | $262K | +0.2% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 871,961 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 900 @ $193.94 | $175K | +0.1% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 874,537 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 608 @ $188.85 | $115K | +0.1% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 867,637 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 492 @ $187.47 | $92K | +0.1% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 867,029 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 362 @ $190.65 | $69K | +0.0% of holding | −0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 870,599 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 4,052 @ $187.36 | $759K | +0.5% of holding | +1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 863,798 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 2,739 @ $187.87 | $515K | +0.3% of holding | +1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 866,537 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 2,598 @ $185.28 | $481K | +0.3% of holding | +1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 859,135 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 611 @ $185.91 | $114K | +0.1% of holding | +1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 859,746 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 7,669 @ $180.67 | $1.4M | +0.9% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 849,206 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 2,976 @ $182.92 | $544K | +0.3% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 853,969 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 2,014 @ $183.88 | $370K | +0.2% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 855,983 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 1,787 @ $181.93 | $325K | +0.2% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 850,993 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 554 @ $184.66 | $102K | +0.1% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 856,537 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 9,242 @ $176.20 | $1.6M | +1.1% of holding | +13.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 837,244 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Purchase | 8,958 @ $175.49 | $1.6M | +1.1% of holding | +13.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 828,002 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
50 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Gorzynski Michael | director | Award / grant | 3,126 | 3,126 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Award / grant | 2,162 | 2,162 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | SMITH DANIEL D | director | Award / grant | 649 | 7,748 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Lombard Shelly | director | Award / grant | 649 | 2,068 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | Baker De Neufville Joanna | director | Award / grant | 649 | 7,662 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-25 | Eidson Charles Andrew | director | Withheld for tax | 3,662 | 21,335 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-25 | Whitehead Jason E. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,541 | 14,351 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-25 | Horn Daniel E. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,600 | 7,755 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-25 | Munsey Joshua Todd | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,515 | 7,258 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-25 | Munsey Joshua Todd | officer | Award / grant | 2,352 | 8,773 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-25 | Whitehead Jason E. | officer | Award / grant | 4,028 | 16,892 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-25 | Horn Daniel E. | officer | Award / grant | 2,559 | 9,355 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-25 | Eidson Charles Andrew | director | Award / grant | 6,521 | 24,997 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-24 | Eidson Charles Andrew | director | Withheld for tax | 452 | 18,476 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-24 | Whitehead Jason E. | officer | Withheld for tax | 314 | 12,864 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-24 | Munsey Joshua Todd | officer | Withheld for tax | 203 | 6,421 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-24 | Horn Daniel E. | officer | Withheld for tax | 198 | 6,796 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Eidson Charles Andrew | director | Withheld for tax | 882 | 18,928 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Whitehead Jason E. | officer | Withheld for tax | 623 | 13,178 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Munsey Joshua Todd | officer | Withheld for tax | 418 | 6,624 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Horn Daniel E. | officer | Withheld for tax | 407 | 6,994 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Manno Mark Matthew | officer | Withheld for tax | 352 | 4,426 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Munsey Joshua Todd | officer | Award / grant | 2,576 | 7,042 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Manno Mark Matthew | officer | Award / grant | 2,342 | 4,778 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Whitehead Jason E. | officer | Award / grant | 4,128 | 13,801 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Horn Daniel E. | officer | Award / grant | 2,412 | 7,401 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Eidson Charles Andrew | director | Award / grant | 8,197 | 19,810 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-07 | Courtis Kenneth S. | director | Award / grant | 1,953 | 626,537 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-07 | Gorzynski Michael | director | Award / grant | 2,842 | 5,713 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-07 | Baker De Neufville Joanna | director | Award / grant | 1,039 | 7,013 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-07 | Lombard Shelly | director | Award / grant | 1,039 | 1,419 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-07 | SMITH DANIEL D | director | Award / grant | 1,039 | 7,099 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-08 | Eidson Charles Andrew | director | Gift | 21,315 | 11,613 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-25 | Whitehead Jason E. | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,147 | 21,677 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-25 | Eidson Charles Andrew | director | Withheld for tax | 7,995 | 32,928 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-25 | Horn Daniel E. | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,179 | 13,114 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-25 | Munsey Joshua Todd | officer | Withheld for tax | 465 | 6,601 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-25 | Horn Daniel E. | officer | Award / grant | 10,389 | 19,293 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-25 | Eidson Charles Andrew | director | Award / grant | 14,025 | 40,923 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-25 | Whitehead Jason E. | officer | Award / grant | 15,194 | 30,824 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.