AMPY · TickerCove

AMPYAmplify Energy Corp.Energy · Oil & Gas Exploration & Productionas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.56 · now $4.56 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AMPY has typically landed between $3.53 and $5.88 — a range of −22.6% to +28.9% from the issuance price $4.56.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

3,597 overlapping 1 month windows · 2012-04-20 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.56) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$4.56 · 30% of range

$3.67 low$6.63 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.6%

typical move · IQR 21.5%

−22.6%worst (p90)+28.9%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where AMPY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.56 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $4.56 (+0.0%)
typical $4.59 (+0.6%)
middle 50% $4.1–$5.08
90% range $3.53–$5.88

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,597 windows spanning 2012-04-20 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−89.4%	−89.4%	+3.9%
2020-02-20	−88.1%	−89.8%	+0.0%
2020-02-21	−87.8%	−89.5%	+0.0%
3 best
2016-09-23	+2779.0%	−0.1%	+2779.0%
2016-09-26	+2748.6%	−0.1%	+2779.0%
2016-10-10	+2645.2%	−0.1%	+2779.0%

3,597 overlapping windows · 2012-04-20 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~15 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

43%

−1.8%

n=14

Feb

29%

−0.6%

n=14

Mar

43%

−5.6%

n=14

Apr

71%

+12.8%

n=14

May

33%

−2.0%

n=15

Jun

40%

−5.5%

n=15

Jul

40%

−3.0%

n=15

Aug

47%

+3.8%

n=15

Sep

60%

+2.2%

n=15

Oct

36%

+171.9%

n=14

Nov

57%

+2.2%

n=14

Dec

43%

−3.0%

n=14

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-06	PERGA CAPITAL PARTNERS, LP	other	Sale	500 @ $0.11	$55	−8.9% of holding	+0.4%	not yet — horizon still open	5,100	Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade
2026-06-23	FREW JAMES	officer	Purchase	25,000 @ $3.95	$99K	+13.0% of holding	+4.5%	not yet — horizon still open	216,859	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-17	COGHILL CLINT D	director	Sale	242,489 @ $6.31	$1.5M	−8.8% of holding	−16.1%	−39.2%	2,504,347	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-16	COGHILL CLINT D	director	Sale	501,279 @ $6.42	$3.2M	−15.4% of holding	−17.3%	−35.3%	2,746,836	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-13	COGHILL CLINT D	director	Sale	256,232 @ $6.66	$1.7M	−7.3% of holding	−21.0%	−41.9%	3,248,115	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-14	COGHILL CLINT D	director	Purchase	65,494 @ $3.89	$255K	+1.9% of holding	+0.1%	+30.9%	3,504,347	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-13	COGHILL CLINT D	director	Purchase	167,086 @ $3.88	$648K	+5.1% of holding	+0.4%	+30.7%	3,438,853	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-12	COGHILL CLINT D	director	Purchase	117,420 @ $3.69	$434K	+3.7% of holding	+4.4%	+42.7%	3,271,767	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-12	FREW JAMES	officer	Purchase	25,000 @ $3.70	$93K	+24.0% of holding	+4.4%	+42.7%	129,222	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-11	FREW JAMES	officer	Purchase	50,000 @ $3.50	$175K	+92.2% of holding	+10.2%	+43.7%	104,222	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-23	Dulany Eric Edward	officer	Sale	5,500 @ $3.65	$20K	−15.9% of holding	+4.6%	+22.0%	29,117	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-20	COGHILL CLINT D	director	Purchase	150,000 @ $3.67	$551K	+5.0% of holding	+1.6%	+11.3%	3,154,347	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-18	Hamm Christopher W.	director	Purchase	77,176 @ $3.67	$283K	+46.1% of holding	−15.8%	+13.4%	244,547	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-06	COGHILL CLINT D	director	Purchase	31,000 @ $3.40	$105K	+1.0% of holding	+0.5%	+56.0%	3,004,347	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-05	COGHILL CLINT D	director	Purchase	92,000 @ $3.26	$300K	+3.2% of holding	−1.2%	+58.4%	2,973,347	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-04	COGHILL CLINT D	director	Purchase	181,000 @ $3.27	$592K	+6.7% of holding	−6.3%	+63.3%	2,881,347	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-30	FURBEE DANIEL	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $2.97	$30K	+25.5% of holding	+9.2%	+75.0%	49,238	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-11	Adams Deborah G	director	Purchase	10,000 @ $4.14	$41K	+19.2% of holding	−27.7%	−19.8%	61,961	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-07	Snyder Todd R	director	Purchase	25,000 @ $3.83	$96K	+30.0% of holding	−16.1%	−14.9%	108,416	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-07	FREW JAMES	officer	Purchase	15,000 @ $3.85	$58K	+38.2% of holding	−16.1%	−14.9%	54,222	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-07	Willsher Martyn	director	Purchase	15,000 @ $3.84	$58K	+5.1% of holding	−16.1%	−14.9%	310,794	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

121 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-01	Adams Deborah G	director	Award / grant	31,365	31,365	Form 4
2026-07-01	COGHILL CLINT D	director	Option exercise	41,922	0	Form 4
2026-07-01	Snyder Todd R	director	Option exercise	36,459	0	Form 4
2026-07-01	Snyder Todd R	director	Award / grant	31,365	31,365	Form 4
2026-07-01	COGHILL CLINT D	director	Award / grant	31,365	31,365	Form 4
2026-07-01	Hamm Christopher W.	director	Option exercise	51,043	0	Form 4
2026-07-01	Hamm Christopher W.	director	Award / grant	43,911	43,911	Form 4
2026-07-01	Adams Deborah G	director	Option exercise	36,459	118,085	Form 4
2026-07-01	Hamm Christopher W.	director	Option exercise	51,043	323,121	Form 4
2026-07-01	Snyder Todd R	director	Option exercise	36,459	164,540	Form 4
2026-07-01	COGHILL CLINT D	director	Option exercise	41,922	44,332	Form 4
2026-07-01	Hamm Christopher W.	director	Option exercise	51,043	323,121	Form 4
2026-07-01	Snyder Todd R	director	Option exercise	36,459	164,540	Form 4
2026-07-01	Adams Deborah G	director	Option exercise	36,459	118,085	Form 4
2026-07-01	COGHILL CLINT D	director	Option exercise	41,922	44,332	Form 4
2026-02-01	Lopez Anthony William	officer	Withheld for tax	31,605	196,727	Form 4
2026-02-01	FURBEE DANIEL	director	Withheld for tax	20,297	112,472	Form 4
2026-02-01	FREW JAMES	officer	Withheld for tax	19,917	191,859	Form 4
2026-02-01	Willis Eric M.	officer	Withheld for tax	17,956	266,347	Form 4
2026-02-01	France Natasha	officer	Withheld for tax	3,100	67,672	Form 4
2026-02-01	Lopez Anthony William	officer	Option exercise	65,641	0	Form 4
2026-02-01	FURBEE DANIEL	director	Option exercise	51,580	51,004	Form 4
2026-02-01	FURBEE DANIEL	director	Award / grant	70,685	121,689	Form 4
2026-02-01	FURBEE DANIEL	director	Award / grant	70,685	169,594	Form 4
2026-02-01	France Natasha	officer	Option exercise	10,449	12,387	Form 4
2026-02-01	France Natasha	officer	Award / grant	13,705	26,092	Form 4
2026-02-01	Willis Eric M.	officer	Award / grant	67,120	119,611	Form 4
2026-02-01	Willis Eric M.	officer	Award / grant	67,120	163,129	Form 4
2026-02-01	FREW JAMES	officer	Option exercise	50,613	49,071	Form 4
2026-02-01	FREW JAMES	officer	Award / grant	67,120	116,191	Form 4
2026-02-01	FREW JAMES	officer	Award / grant	67,120	163,129	Form 4
2026-02-01	Willis Eric M.	officer	Option exercise	45,243	52,491	Form 4
2026-02-01	Lopez Anthony William	officer	Option exercise	12,641	0	Form 4
2026-02-01	FURBEE DANIEL	director	Option exercise	51,580	132,769	Form 4
2026-02-01	FREW JAMES	officer	Option exercise	50,613	211,776	Form 4
2026-02-01	Willis Eric M.	officer	Option exercise	45,243	284,303	Form 4
2026-02-01	Lopez Anthony William	officer	Option exercise	65,641	215,691	Form 4
2026-02-01	Lopez Anthony William	officer	Option exercise	12,641	228,332	Form 4
2026-02-01	FREW JAMES	officer	Option exercise	50,613	211,776	Form 4
2026-02-01	France Natasha	officer	Option exercise	10,449	70,772	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i