Issued 2026-09-16 at $9.10 · now $9.10 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AMPX has typically landed between $5.87 and $15.30 — a range of −35.5% to +68.2% from the issuance price $9.10.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
980 overlapping 1 month windows · 2022-09-16 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($9.10) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AMPX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $9.1 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $9.1 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $8.86 (-2.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $7.13–$10.59
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $5.87–$15.3
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 980 windows spanning 2022-09-16 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-02-07 | −50.7% | −50.7% | +0.6% |
| 2023-08-09 | −48.4% | −48.4% | +0.0% |
| 2025-02-10 | −48.2% | −51.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-06-23 | +132.8% | +0.0% | +151.0% |
| 2025-06-17 | +129.1% | −8.7% | +129.1% |
| 2025-06-18 | +122.3% | −8.5% | +129.7% |
980 overlapping windows · 2022-09-16 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~4 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+9.0%
n=4
Feb
0%
−15.1%
n=4
Mar
75%
+20.3%
n=4
Apr
50%
−4.1%
n=4
May
25%
−5.9%
n=4
Jun
25%
+2.6%
n=4
Jul
50%
+8.2%
n=4
Aug
50%
−10.0%
n=4
Sep
50%
+10.1%
n=4
Oct
75%
+10.4%
n=4
Nov
50%
+17.3%
n=4
Dec
50%
+1.6%
n=4
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Stepien Thomas M | director | Sale | 8,000 @ $10.03 | $80K | −1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 594,096 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Sun Kang | director | Sale | 62,101 @ $10.34 | $642K | −4.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,218,397 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Stefan Constantin Ionel | officer | Sale | 29,681 @ $10.34 | $307K | −3.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 771,629 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Stepien Thomas M | director | Sale | 23,529 @ $10.34 | $243K | −3.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 602,096 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | DIXON DONALD R | director | Sale | 85,000 @ $17.17 | $1.5M | −19.1% of holding | −39.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 359,380 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | DIXON DONALD R | director | Sale | 40,000 @ $19.13 | $765K | −8.3% of holding | −36.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 444,380 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Stepien Thomas M | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $20.97 | $42K | −0.3% of holding | −47.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 625,625 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Stepien Thomas M | director | Sale | 4,375 @ $17.19 | $75K | −0.6% of holding | −22.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 694,923 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Stefan Constantin Ionel | officer | Sale | 3,208 @ $17.19 | $55K | −0.4% of holding | −22.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 801,310 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Sun Kang | director | Sale | 356 @ $17.19 | $6K | −0.0% of holding | −22.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,280,498 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | DIXON DONALD R | director | Sale | 17,895 @ $17.90 | $320K | −3.6% of holding | −27.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 484,380 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Sun Kang | director | Sale | 67,796 @ $14.79 | $1.0M | −5.0% of holding | −6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,280,854 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Stepien Thomas M | director | Sale | 60,702 @ $14.79 | $898K | −8.0% of holding | −6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 699,298 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Stefan Constantin Ionel | officer | Sale | 28,812 @ $14.79 | $426K | −3.5% of holding | −6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 804,518 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Sun Kang | director | Sale | 1,250,963 @ $15.73 | $19.7M | −44.0% of holding | +24.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,591,437 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Sun Kang | director | Sale | 249,037 @ $16.78 | $4.2M | −15.6% of holding | +24.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,342,400 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Sun Kang | director | Sale | 152,823 @ $18.69 | $2.9M | −55.7% of holding | +12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 121,452 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-23 | Sun Kang | director | Sale | 65,046 @ $19.06 | $1.2M | −53.6% of holding | +12.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 56,406 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | HSIEH Wen Hsuan | director | Sale | 282,500 @ $18.55 | $5.2M | −61.7% of holding | −2.8% | −63.8% | 175,090 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | HSIEH Wen Hsuan | director | Sale | 130,646 @ $18.22 | $2.4M | −74.6% of holding | −2.8% | −63.8% | 44,444 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Chu Steven | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $18.65 | $1.9M | −35.3% of holding | −2.8% | −63.8% | 182,904 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-12 | Chu Steven | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $18.21 | $911K | −27.3% of holding | −2.8% | −63.8% | 132,904 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-12 | Chu Steven | director | Sale | 5,565 @ $18.53 | $103K | −4.2% of holding | −2.8% | −63.8% | 127,339 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-10 | Chu Steven | director | Sale | 166,632 @ $17.92 | $3.0M | −56.7% of holding | −11.0% | −58.3% | 127,339 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Sun Kang | director | Sale | 61,251 @ $10.16 | $622K | −4.4% of holding | +78.1% | −15.8% | 1,342,400 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | Stefan Constantin Ionel | officer | Sale | 25,366 @ $10.16 | $258K | −3.4% of holding | +78.1% | −15.8% | 723,330 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-28 | Stefan Constantin Ionel | officer | Sale | 39,690 @ $12.00 | $476K | −5.0% of holding | −9.1% | −28.2% | 748,696 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-23 | Stefan Constantin Ionel | officer | Sale | 1,600 @ $12.00 | $19K | −0.2% of holding | −3.0% | −20.9% | 748,696 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-22 | Stefan Constantin Ionel | officer | Sale | 492,827 @ $12.04 | $5.9M | −39.7% of holding | −13.7% | −30.5% | 748,696 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-21 | Stefan Constantin Ionel | officer | Sale | 73,280 @ $12.00 | $879K | −8.9% of holding | −16.1% | −20.3% | 748,696 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-20 | Sun Kang | director | Sale | 43,185 @ $11.03 | $476K | −3.0% of holding | −8.4% | −19.8% | 1,403,651 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-16 | Sun Kang | director | Sale | 950,548 @ $11.07 | $10.5M | −40.4% of holding | −9.1% | −9.9% | 1,403,651 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-12 | Sun Kang | director | Sale | 506,267 @ $10.10 | $5.1M | −26.5% of holding | +11.5% | +4.1% | 1,403,651 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Stefan Constantin Ionel | officer | Sale | 198,255 @ $10.51 | $2.1M | −20.9% of holding | −16.4% | +36.9% | 748,696 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Sun Kang | director | Sale | 68,655 @ $10.08 | $692K | −4.7% of holding | −18.4% | +55.2% | 1,403,651 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Stefan Constantin Ionel | officer | Sale | 25,024 @ $10.08 | $252K | −3.0% of holding | −18.4% | +55.2% | 821,951 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Sun Kang | director | Sale | 1,000,000 @ $10.60 | $10.6M | −40.4% of holding | −16.7% | +32.5% | 1,472,306 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-21 | Sun Kang | director | Sale | 65,654 @ $6.82 | $448K | −4.3% of holding | +72.4% | +42.2% | 1,472,306 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-21 | Wallach Sandra | officer | Sale | 28,390 @ $6.82 | $194K | −2.7% of holding | +72.4% | +42.2% | 1,005,275 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-21 | Stefan Constantin Ionel | officer | Sale | 19,159 @ $6.82 | $131K | −2.2% of holding | +72.4% | +42.2% | 846,975 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-21 | Sun Kang | director | Sale | 69,786 @ $2.43 | $170K | −3.7% of holding | +39.3% | +332.4% | 1,812,235 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-21 | Wallach Sandra | officer | Sale | 27,595 @ $2.43 | $67K | −2.6% of holding | +39.3% | +332.4% | 1,033,665 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-21 | Stefan Constantin Ionel | officer | Sale | 20,366 @ $2.43 | $50K | −2.3% of holding | +39.3% | +332.4% | 866,134 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-21 | Sun Kang | director | Sale | 34,353 @ $3.13 | $108K | −2.6% of holding | +14.0% | +130.8% | 1,282,621 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-21 | Wallach Sandra | officer | Sale | 18,142 @ $3.13 | $57K | −2.6% of holding | +14.0% | +130.8% | 678,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-21 | Bornstein Jonathan | officer | Sale | 13,527 @ $3.13 | $42K | −3.1% of holding | +14.0% | +130.8% | 419,197 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-21 | Stefan Constantin Ionel | officer | Sale | 9,066 @ $3.13 | $28K | −2.1% of holding | +14.0% | +130.8% | 421,489 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
83 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Stepien Thomas M | director | Gift | 5,000 | 579,096 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Stepien Thomas M | director | Award / grant | 346 | 37,260 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Stepien Thomas M | director | Gift | 346 | 578,750 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Stepien Thomas M | director | Gift | 5,000 | 589,096 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | Stepien Thomas M | director | Gift | 5,000 | 584,096 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | SATTERTHWAITE LIVINGSTON | director | Award / grant | 10,423 | 346,506 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | DIXON DONALD R | director | Award / grant | 10,423 | 280,079 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | BAYLESS KATHLEEN A | director | Award / grant | 10,423 | 216,120 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | Chu Steven | director | Award / grant | 10,423 | 137,762 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Stepien Thomas M | director | Gift | 36,914 | 36,914 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Stepien Thomas M | director | Gift | 36,914 | 627,625 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Stepien Thomas M | director | Gift | 30,384 | 664,539 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-05 | Sun Kang | director | Award / grant | 6,250 | 1,348,650 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Sun Kang | director | Option exercise | 1,312,505 | 2,654,905 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Sun Kang | director | Option exercise | 1,312,505 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Sun Kang | director | Option exercise | 187,495 | 1,787,007 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Sun Kang | director | Option exercise | 187,495 | 2,842,400 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | HSIEH Wen Hsuan | director | Option exercise | 270,251 | 457,590 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | HSIEH Wen Hsuan | director | Option exercise | 270,251 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Chu Steven | director | Option exercise | 86,143 | 184,108 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Chu Steven | director | Option exercise | 86,143 | 213,482 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Chu Steven | director | Option exercise | 69,422 | 282,904 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Chu Steven | director | Option exercise | 69,422 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Chu Steven | director | Option exercise | 104,132 | 69,422 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-10 | Chu Steven | director | Option exercise | 104,132 | 293,971 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | RODRIGUEZ RICARDO C. | officer | Award / grant | 150,000 | 350,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Stefan Constantin Ionel | officer | Award / grant | 110,000 | 833,330 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Stepien Thomas M | director | Award / grant | 150,000 | 760,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-28 | Stefan Constantin Ionel | officer | Option exercise | 39,600 | 788,386 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-28 | Stefan Constantin Ionel | officer | Option exercise | 90 | 748,786 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-28 | Stefan Constantin Ionel | officer | Option exercise | 39,600 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-28 | Stefan Constantin Ionel | officer | Option exercise | 90 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | Stefan Constantin Ionel | officer | Option exercise | 1,600 | 750,296 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | Stefan Constantin Ionel | officer | Option exercise | 1,600 | 39,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Stefan Constantin Ionel | officer | Option exercise | 72,795 | 1,075,419 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Stefan Constantin Ionel | officer | Option exercise | 253,928 | 1,002,624 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Stefan Constantin Ionel | officer | Option exercise | 166,104 | 1,241,523 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Stefan Constantin Ionel | officer | Option exercise | 253,928 | 41,200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Stefan Constantin Ionel | officer | Option exercise | 166,104 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-22 | Stefan Constantin Ionel | officer | Option exercise | 72,795 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.