AMPL · TickerCove

AMPLAmplitude, Inc.Technology · Software - Applicationas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $13.47 · now $13.47 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AMPL has typically landed between $10.12 and $17.12 — a range of −24.9% to +27.1% from the issuance price $13.47.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,226 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-09-28 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($13.47) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$13.47 · 90% of range

$5.61 low$14.3 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−1.5%

typical move · IQR 18.2%

−24.9%worst (p90)+27.1%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where AMPL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $13.47 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $13.47 (+0.0%)
typical $13.26 (-1.5%)
middle 50% $12.04–$14.49
90% range $10.12–$17.12

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,226 windows spanning 2021-09-28 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2022-02-10	−64.0%	−64.0%	+3.0%
2022-02-11	−63.9%	−64.5%	+1.6%
2022-02-09	−61.9%	−61.9%	+0.7%
3 best
2021-10-11	+72.6%	+0.0%	+72.6%
2026-07-30	+66.1%	+0.0%	+66.1%
2026-07-23	+65.1%	+0.0%	+65.2%

1,226 overlapping windows · 2021-09-28 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

60%

−2.0%

n=5

Feb

20%

−15.8%

n=5

Mar

−10.7%

n=5

Apr

20%

−5.9%

n=5

May

60%

+5.9%

n=5

Jun

40%

−2.7%

n=5

Jul

60%

+3.9%

n=5

Aug

80%

+11.7%

n=5

Sep

40%

−1.5%

n=5

Oct

60%

+5.1%

n=5

Nov

60%

−0.6%

n=5

Dec

60%

−0.0%

n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-10	Skates Spenser	director	Sale	185,000 @ $12.30	$2.3M	−100.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-09-04	Crook Nathaniel Glenn	officer	Sale	300,000 @ $12.99	$3.9M	−15.6% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	1,622,696	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-06-12	Wong Catherine	director	Sale	7,453 @ $6.79	$51K	−6.3% of holding	+37.9%	not yet — horizon still open	111,462	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-01	Liu Curtis	director	Sale	22,201 @ $8.03	$178K	−2.2% of holding	−1.2%	not yet — horizon still open	1,004,779	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-04	Liu Curtis	director	Sale	17,586 @ $8.12	$143K	−1.6% of holding	−4.2%	not yet — horizon still open	1,067,259	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-06	Liu Curtis	director	Sale	33,201 @ $8.01	$266K	−5.2% of holding	−13.0%	+50.7%	603,756	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-05	Liu Curtis	director	Sale	30,061 @ $8.00	$241K	−4.5% of holding	−10.3%	+58.1%	636,957	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-26	Skates Spenser	director	Sale	100 @ $12.00	$1K	−100.0% of holding	−17.8%	−44.6%	0	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-24	Skates Spenser	director	Sale	42,743 @ $12.01	$513K	−100.0% of holding	−16.7%	−44.6%	0	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-12-15	Schultz Erica	director	Sale	10,000 @ $10.88	$109K	−8.0% of holding	−6.9%	−48.7%	114,906	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-17	Schultz Erica	director	Sale	10,000 @ $10.23	$102K	−8.5% of holding	+14.5%	−46.8%	107,406	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-11	Skates Spenser	director	Sale	400,000 @ $10.99	$4.4M	−100.0% of holding	+0.1%	−55.3%	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-07	Casey Andrew	officer	Purchase	30,000 @ $9.99	$300K	+2.7% of holding	+11.5%	−48.9%	1,160,608	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-10-15	Schultz Erica	director	Sale	10,000 @ $10.12	$101K	−8.5% of holding	+6.2%	−38.3%	107,406	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-15	Schultz Erica	director	Sale	10,000 @ $11.06	$111K	−8.5% of holding	−7.1%	−36.3%	107,406	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-15	Schultz Erica	director	Sale	7,500 @ $11.46	$86K	−6.5% of holding	−6.2%	−51.5%	107,406	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-15	Schultz Erica	director	Sale	7,500 @ $12.56	$94K	−6.5% of holding	−11.6%	−29.1%	107,406	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-11	Schultz Erica	director	Sale	26,394 @ $12.49	$330K	−22.2% of holding	−3.1%	−21.8%	92,500	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-11	Wong Catherine	director	Sale	8,502 @ $12.49	$106K	−9.7% of holding	−3.1%	−21.8%	79,152	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-19	Wong Catherine	director	Sale	3,515 @ $11.75	$41K	−3.9% of holding	−0.8%	−27.9%	87,654	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-12	Vishria Eric	director	Sale	10,000 @ $12.00	$120K	−2.9% of holding	−0.3%	−27.9%	329,621	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-08	Vishria Eric	director	Sale	25,000 @ $10.15	$254K	−8.7% of holding	+14.7%	−24.9%	261,859	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-13	Casey Andrew	officer	Purchase	21,000 @ $11.42	$240K	+2.0% of holding	−20.2%	−22.8%	1,076,992	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-11	Wong Catherine	director	Sale	3,515 @ $12.04	$42K	−3.7% of holding	−19.1%	−24.8%	91,169	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-24	Vishria Eric	director	Sale	35,000 @ $12.80	$448K	−10.9% of holding	−2.9%	−21.2%	286,859	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-28	Vishria Eric	director	Sale	3,563 @ $12.00	$43K	−1.3% of holding	+0.9%	−3.9%	276,208	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-13	Vishria Eric	director	Sale	6,437 @ $12.02	$77K	−2.2% of holding	−7.8%	+0.2%	279,771	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

86 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-10	Skates Spenser	director	Conversion	185,000	185,000	Form 4
2026-09-10	Skates Spenser	director	Conversion	185,000	382,157	Form 4
2026-08-17	Crook Nathaniel Glenn	officer	Withheld for tax	109,368	1,922,696	Form 4
2026-08-17	Casey Andrew	officer	Withheld for tax	72,814	1,363,338	Form 4
2026-08-17	Liu Curtis	director	Withheld for tax	53,878	950,316	Form 4
2026-08-17	Skates Spenser	director	Withheld for tax	52,369	1,231,188	Form 4
2026-07-08	Liu Curtis	director	Gift	175,000	175,000	Form 4
2026-07-08	Liu Curtis	director	Gift	175,000	7,207,208	Form 4
2026-07-05	Schultz Erica	director	Award / grant	1,659	143,100	Form 4
2026-07-05	Tzuo Tien	director	Award / grant	1,521	101,601	Form 4
2026-06-09	Wong Catherine	director	Award / grant	24,857	118,915	Form 4
2026-06-09	Schultz Erica	director	Award / grant	24,857	141,441	Form 4
2026-06-09	Grady Patrick W	director	Award / grant	24,857	85,806	Form 4
2026-06-09	Whitehurst James M	director	Award / grant	24,857	187,201	Form 4
2026-06-09	Gill Ronald S	director	Award / grant	24,857	99,535	Form 4
2026-05-15	Crook Nathaniel Glenn	officer	Withheld for tax	101,292	2,032,064	Form 4
2026-05-15	Casey Andrew	officer	Withheld for tax	64,872	1,436,152	Form 4
2026-05-15	Liu Curtis	director	Withheld for tax	40,279	1,026,980	Form 4
2026-05-15	Skates Spenser	director	Withheld for tax	39,562	1,283,557	Form 4
2026-04-21	Skates Spenser	director	Award / grant	1,323,119	1,323,119	Form 4
2026-04-15	Liu Curtis	director	Award / grant	417,827	1,084,845	Form 4
2026-04-15	Crook Nathaniel Glenn	officer	Award / grant	974,930	2,131,026	Form 4
2026-04-15	Crook Nathaniel Glenn	officer	Award / grant	278,551	1,156,096	Form 4
2026-04-15	Casey Andrew	officer	Award / grant	431,754	1,498,524	Form 4
2026-04-05	Tzuo Tien	director	Award / grant	1,538	100,080	Form 4
2026-04-05	Schultz Erica	director	Award / grant	1,678	116,584	Form 4
2026-02-15	HANSEN THOMAS NEERGAARD	officer	Withheld for tax	69,142	1,845,845	Form 4
2026-02-15	Casey Andrew	officer	Withheld for tax	39,438	1,066,770	Form 4
2026-02-15	Liu Curtis	director	Withheld for tax	26,672	730,280	Form 4
2026-01-05	Tzuo Tien	director	Award / grant	999	98,542	Form 4
2025-12-26	Skates Spenser	director	Conversion	100	100	Form 4
2025-12-26	Skates Spenser	director	Conversion	100	567,157	Form 4
2025-12-24	Skates Spenser	director	Conversion	42,743	42,743	Form 4
2025-12-24	Skates Spenser	director	Conversion	42,743	567,257	Form 4
2025-12-15	Schultz Erica	director	Option exercise	10,000	124,906	Form 4
2025-12-15	Schultz Erica	director	Option exercise	10,000	49,500	Form 4
2025-11-17	Schultz Erica	director	Option exercise	10,000	59,500	Form 4
2025-11-17	Schultz Erica	director	Option exercise	10,000	117,406	Form 4
2025-11-15	HANSEN THOMAS NEERGAARD	officer	Withheld for tax	91,618	1,914,987	Form 4
2025-11-15	Casey Andrew	officer	Withheld for tax	54,400	1,106,208	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i