AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc.Financial Services · Asset Managementas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $540.86 · now $540.86 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AMP has typically landed between $484.15 and $609.30 — a range of −10.5% to +12.7% from the issuance price $540.86.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($540.86) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AMP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $540.86 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$484.15worst · -10.5%$609.3best · +12.7%
  • now $540.86 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $549.16 (+1.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $520.31–$578.01
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $484.15–$609.3
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−52.8%−52.8%+0.0%
2020-02-13−51.6%−51.6%+0.7%
2008-09-10−51.5%−51.5%+5.3%
3 best
2008-11-19+63.7%−11.4%+63.7%
2008-11-21+61.6%+0.0%+84.8%
2009-03-05+60.6%−2.9%+60.6%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$47.5B
market cap
$29.46
EPS (TTM)
18.0
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-29
next earnings
Revenue$18.9B
'20'25
Net income$3.6B
'20'25
Free cash flow$2.9B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr18.8%
'20'25
ROE · by yr54.4%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.90
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $540.86$469.60$657.99
  • DCF (intrinsic)$599.45
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$482.59
  • Analyst target · range $489.00–$645.00$539.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$540.86

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
61%
+1.4%
n=18
Feb
53%
−0.1%
n=19
Mar
53%
+0.6%
n=19
Apr
53%
+2.0%
n=19
May
47%
+1.7%
n=19
Jun
53%
−1.5%
n=19
Jul
79%
+5.6%
n=19
Aug
53%
+0.2%
n=19
Sep
42%
+0.7%
n=19
Oct
67%
+1.3%
n=18
Nov
78%
+5.8%
n=18
Dec
72%
+2.5%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$571$4292026-08-10: 1 insider sale, $264K — Brockman Dawn M.2026-08-06: 1 insider sale, $1.3M — McGraw Deirdre Davey2026-07-28: 7 insider sales, $20.3M — CRACCHIOLO JAMES M, Berman Walter Stanley, Williams William Jerryl …2026-07-27: 2 insider sales, $4.2M — Williams William Jerryl …2026-05-14: 1 insider sale, $3.0M — Smyth Gerard P.2026-05-08: 1 insider sale, $559K — Sharpe Robert Francis JR2026-02-10: 1 insider sale, $2.7M — TRUSCOTT WILLIAM F2026-02-09: 1 insider sale, $2.5M — Alvero Gumer2026-02-05: 1 insider sale, $3.8M — Berman Walter Stanley2026-02-04: 8 insider sales, $26.6M — CRACCHIOLO JAMES M …2025-11-21: 1 insider sale, $676K — Sharpe Robert Francis JR2025-09-04: 1 insider sale, $769K — MELLOH HEATHER J.2025-08-19: 1 insider sale, $5.0M — TRUSCOTT WILLIAM F2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $5.0M2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $769K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $676K2026-02: 11 open-market sales, $35.6M2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $3.5M2026-07: 9 open-market sales, $24.5M2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $1.6M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Brockman Dawn M. — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer McGraw Deirdre Davey — Sale on 2026-08-06, filed 4 days after the tradedirector CRACCHIOLO JAMES M — Sale on 2026-07-28, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Berman Walter Stanley — Sale on 2026-07-28, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Williams William Jerryl — Sale on 2026-07-28, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Williams William Jerryl — Sale on 2026-07-28, filed 1 day after the tradedirector CRACCHIOLO JAMES M — Sale on 2026-07-28, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Williams William Jerryl — Sale on 2026-07-28, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Berman Walter Stanley — Sale on 2026-07-28, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Williams William Jerryl — Sale on 2026-07-27, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Williams William Jerryl — Sale on 2026-07-27, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Smyth Gerard P. — Sale on 2026-05-14, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Sharpe Robert Francis JR — Sale on 2026-05-08, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer TRUSCOTT WILLIAM F — Sale on 2026-02-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Alvero Gumer — Sale on 2026-02-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Berman Walter Stanley — Sale on 2026-02-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector CRACCHIOLO JAMES M — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector CRACCHIOLO JAMES M — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector CRACCHIOLO JAMES M — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector CRACCHIOLO JAMES M — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector CRACCHIOLO JAMES M — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector CRACCHIOLO JAMES M — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector CRACCHIOLO JAMES M — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector CRACCHIOLO JAMES M — Sale on 2026-02-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Sharpe Robert Francis JR — Sale on 2025-11-21, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer MELLOH HEATHER J. — Sale on 2025-09-04, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer TRUSCOTT WILLIAM F — Sale on 2025-08-19, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-10Brockman Dawn M.officerSale472 @ $558.93$264K−39.8% of holding+0.4%not yet — horizon still open713Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-06McGraw Deirdre DaveyofficerSale2,400 @ $558.28$1.3M−41.6% of holding−0.1%not yet — horizon still open3,373Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-28CRACCHIOLO JAMES MdirectorSale16,120 @ $545.28$8.8M−12.8% of holding−0.6%not yet — horizon still open109,533Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-28Berman Walter StanleyofficerSale10,590 @ $548.92$5.8M−63.7% of holding−0.6%not yet — horizon still open6,031Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-28Williams William JerrylofficerSale4,102 @ $538.23$2.2M−27.4% of holding−0.6%not yet — horizon still open10,888Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-28Williams William JerrylofficerSale3,200 @ $540.07$1.7M−29.4% of holding−0.6%not yet — horizon still open7,688Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-28CRACCHIOLO JAMES MdirectorSale1,900 @ $546.67$1.0M−1.7% of holding−0.6%not yet — horizon still open107,633Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-28Williams William JerrylofficerSale908 @ $541.90$492K−11.8% of holding−0.6%not yet — horizon still open6,780Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-28Berman Walter StanleyofficerSale422 @ $549.76$232K−7.0% of holding−0.6%not yet — horizon still open5,609Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-27Williams William JerrylofficerSale7,888 @ $537.08$4.2M−42.0% of holding+0.5%not yet — horizon still open10,888Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-27Williams William JerrylofficerSale6 @ $537.61$3K−0.1% of holding+0.5%not yet — horizon still open10,882Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-14Smyth Gerard P.officerSale6,255 @ $472.52$3.0M−50.6% of holding−3.5%not yet — horizon still open6,103Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-08Sharpe Robert Francis JRdirectorSale1,200 @ $465.83$559K−16.0% of holding−3.4%not yet — horizon still open6,300Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-10TRUSCOTT WILLIAM FofficerSale5,000 @ $532.08$2.7M−29.2% of holding−9.2%−0.0%12,149Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-09Alvero GumerofficerSale4,658 @ $542.88$2.5M−50.2% of holding−13.9%−6.8%4,621Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-05Berman Walter StanleyofficerSale7,000 @ $544.22$3.8M−55.5% of holding−13.6%−10.9%5,609Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-04CRACCHIOLO JAMES MdirectorSale15,696 @ $548.61$8.6M−12.7% of holding−12.5%−9.3%107,633Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-04CRACCHIOLO JAMES MdirectorSale7,136 @ $540.11$3.9M−4.6% of holding−12.5%−9.3%149,310Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-04CRACCHIOLO JAMES MdirectorSale6,886 @ $545.04$3.8M−5.1% of holding−12.5%−9.3%128,039Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-04CRACCHIOLO JAMES MdirectorSale5,643 @ $542.78$3.1M−3.9% of holding−12.5%−9.3%139,432Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-04CRACCHIOLO JAMES MdirectorSale4,507 @ $543.88$2.5M−3.2% of holding−12.5%−9.3%134,925Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-04CRACCHIOLO JAMES MdirectorSale4,235 @ $541.46$2.3M−2.8% of holding−12.5%−9.3%145,075Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-04CRACCHIOLO JAMES MdirectorSale2,928 @ $547.51$1.6M−2.3% of holding−12.5%−9.3%123,329Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-04CRACCHIOLO JAMES MdirectorSale1,782 @ $545.76$973K−1.4% of holding−12.5%−9.3%126,257Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-21Sharpe Robert Francis JRdirectorSale1,500 @ $450.94$676K−16.7% of holding+6.7%−14.8%7,500Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-04MELLOH HEATHER J.officerSale1,500 @ $512.34$769K−36.9% of holding−7.3%−12.8%2,562Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-19TRUSCOTT WILLIAM FofficerSale9,929 @ $506.89$5.0M−47.3% of holding−6.4%−13.7%11,047Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-19Sweeney Joseph EdwardofficerSale4,636 @ $539.07$2.5M−39.0% of holding−2.5%−12.1%7,237Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-18Berman Walter StanleyofficerSale4,000 @ $550.71$2.2M−39.3% of holding−1.5%−12.1%6,167Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-18Berman Walter StanleyofficerSale4,000 @ $547.17$2.2M−29.1% of holding−1.5%−12.1%9,739Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-18Sharpe Robert Francis JRdirectorSale1,000 @ $551.44$551K−10.0% of holding−1.5%−12.1%9,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-12Sharpe Robert Francis JRdirectorSale1,000 @ $523.13$523K−9.1% of holding−1.1%−9.4%10,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-06TRUSCOTT WILLIAM FofficerSale6,000 @ $540.29$3.2M−30.0% of holding−3.5%−11.6%14,023Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2021-04-29Smyth Gerard P.officerSale974 @ $259.53$253K−9.7% of holding+0.1%+5.8%9,020Form 4 · filed 1420 days after the trade
2017-07-31CRACCHIOLO JAMES MdirectorSale33,692 @ $144.56$4.9M−20.2% of holding−3.9%+4.7%132,752Form 4 · filed 2788 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

225 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-10MELLOH HEATHER J.officerWithheld for tax4693,937Form 4
2026-08-10MELLOH HEATHER J.officerOption exercise7224,406Form 4
2026-08-10MELLOH HEATHER J.officerOption exercise7220Form 4
2026-08-06McGraw Deirdre DaveyofficerWithheld for tax2,1915,773Form 4
2026-08-06McGraw Deirdre DaveyofficerOption exercise1,0007,964Form 4
2026-08-06McGraw Deirdre DaveyofficerOption exercise1,0006,964Form 4
2026-08-06McGraw Deirdre DaveyofficerOption exercise1,0005,964Form 4
2026-08-06McGraw Deirdre DaveyofficerOption exercise1,0002,143Form 4
2026-08-06McGraw Deirdre DaveyofficerOption exercise1,0001,034Form 4
2026-08-06McGraw Deirdre DaveyofficerOption exercise1,0001,015Form 4
2026-07-28CRACCHIOLO JAMES MdirectorWithheld for tax34,912125,653Form 4
2026-07-28Berman Walter StanleyofficerWithheld for tax23,09916,621Form 4
2026-07-28CRACCHIOLO JAMES MdirectorOption exercise52,932160,565Form 4
2026-07-28Berman Walter StanleyofficerOption exercise23,20639,720Form 4
2026-07-28Williams William JerrylofficerWithheld for tax6,84014,990Form 4
2026-07-28Williams William JerrylofficerOption exercise10,94821,830Form 4
2026-07-28Berman Walter StanleyofficerOption exercise10,90516,514Form 4
2026-07-28WILLIAMS CHRISTOPHER JdirectorAward / grant383,927Form 4
2026-07-28Berman Walter StanleyofficerOption exercise10,9050Form 4
2026-07-28Williams William JerrylofficerOption exercise10,9482,532Form 4
2026-07-28Berman Walter StanleyofficerOption exercise23,2060Form 4
2026-07-28CRACCHIOLO JAMES MdirectorOption exercise52,9320Form 4
2026-07-27Williams William JerrylofficerWithheld for tax2,13118,776Form 4
2026-07-27Williams William JerrylofficerOption exercise3,63420,907Form 4
2026-07-27Williams William JerrylofficerOption exercise3,6340Form 4
2026-07-09TRUSCOTT WILLIAM FofficerWithheld for tax1814,794Form 4
2026-07-09HUNTER PETRUZILLO KELLI A.officerWithheld for tax984,208Form 4
2026-07-09Williams William JerrylofficerWithheld for tax2417,273Form 4
2026-07-09Brockman Dawn M.officerWithheld for tax91,185Form 4
2026-07-09Williams William JerrylofficerOption exercise5417,297Form 4
2026-07-09HUNTER PETRUZILLO KELLI A.officerOption exercise2074,306Form 4
2026-07-09HUNTER PETRUZILLO KELLI A.officerOption exercise2071,109Form 4
2026-07-09TRUSCOTT WILLIAM FofficerOption exercise3925,186Form 4
2026-07-09TRUSCOTT WILLIAM FofficerOption exercise392639Form 4
2026-07-09Williams William JerrylofficerOption exercise5415,061Form 4
2026-07-09Brockman Dawn M.officerOption exercise261,194Form 4
2026-07-09HUNTER PETRUZILLO KELLI A.officerOption exercise2071,109Form 4
2026-07-09TRUSCOTT WILLIAM FofficerOption exercise3925,186Form 4
2026-07-09TRUSCOTT WILLIAM FofficerOption exercise392639Form 4
2026-07-09Williams William JerrylofficerOption exercise5417,297Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Richard W. AllenHousesale2026-06-052026-04-15$50–100K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-13$15–50K
Elizabeth FletcherHousesale2026-05-012026-04-08$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-30$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-12-082025-11-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-11-062025-10-07$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-05-122025-04-09$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-05-122025-04-15$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.