Issued 2026-09-16 at $34.92 · now $34.92 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AMN has typically landed between $27.49 and $41.48 — a range of −21.3% to +18.8% from the issuance price $34.92.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($34.92) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AMN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $34.92 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $34.92 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $34.34 (-1.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $31.39–$37.3
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $27.49–$41.48
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2024-10-17 | −44.1% | −44.1% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-26 | −43.9% | −43.9% | +0.0% |
| 2008-10-02 | −43.8% | −43.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-10 | +69.4% | +0.0% | +69.4% |
| 2026-04-14 | +64.4% | +0.0% | +64.4% |
| 2026-04-13 | +58.6% | +0.0% | +62.9% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-15 | FOLETTA MARK G | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $31.07 | $62K | −10.0% of holding | +11.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,917 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | FOLETTA MARK G | director | Sale | 1,681 @ $31.07 | $52K | −7.8% of holding | +11.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,917 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
135 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Laughlin Whitney M | officer | Withheld for tax | 122 | 24,028 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Laughlin Whitney M | officer | Option exercise | 498 | 24,150 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Laughlin Whitney M | officer | Option exercise | 498 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | FOLETTA MARK G | director | Option exercise | 8,325 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | FOLETTA MARK G | director | Award / grant | 8,304 | 8,304 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Hinton James H. | director | Award / grant | 8,304 | 8,304 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | HARRIS R JEFFREY | director | Option exercise | 5,555 | 72,817 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | HARRIS R JEFFREY | director | Option exercise | 4,048 | 76,865 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | HARRIS R JEFFREY | director | Option exercise | 6,009 | 82,874 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | HARRIS R JEFFREY | director | Option exercise | 8,325 | 67,262 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Caballero Jorge A. | director | Option exercise | 8,325 | 15,462 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Caballero Jorge A. | director | Option exercise | 8,325 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Caballero Jorge A. | director | Award / grant | 8,304 | 8,304 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | FOLETTA MARK G | director | Option exercise | 8,325 | 21,598 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | HARRIS R JEFFREY | director | Option exercise | 4,048 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | HARRIS R JEFFREY | director | Option exercise | 6,009 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | HARRIS R JEFFREY | director | Option exercise | 9,563 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Fontenot Teri G. | director | Award / grant | 8,304 | 8,304 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Jones Daphne E | director | Award / grant | 8,304 | 8,304 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Palmer Eric P | director | Award / grant | 8,304 | 8,304 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Trent-Adams Sylvia | director | Option exercise | 8,325 | 16,797 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Trent-Adams Sylvia | director | Option exercise | 8,325 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Trent-Adams Sylvia | director | Award / grant | 8,304 | 8,304 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Huber Celia P | director | Award / grant | 8,304 | 8,304 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | HARRIS R JEFFREY | director | Option exercise | 9,563 | 92,437 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | HARRIS R JEFFREY | director | Option exercise | 9,563 | 102,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | HARRIS R JEFFREY | director | Option exercise | 8,325 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Jones Daphne E | director | Option exercise | 8,325 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Jones Daphne E | director | Option exercise | 8,325 | 17,124 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | HARRIS R JEFFREY | director | Option exercise | 5,555 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Grace Caroline | director | Withheld for tax | 6,191 | 81,686 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Scott Brian M. | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,592 | 13,093 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Grace Caroline | director | Withheld for tax | 2,713 | 62,452 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Hagan Mark Christopher | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,622 | 44,873 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Grace Caroline | director | Withheld for tax | 1,495 | 54,501 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Laughlin Whitney M | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,049 | 23,652 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Hagan Mark Christopher | officer | Withheld for tax | 926 | 40,863 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Hagan Mark Christopher | officer | Withheld for tax | 591 | 39,541 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Laughlin Whitney M | officer | Withheld for tax | 223 | 21,164 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Laughlin Whitney M | officer | Withheld for tax | 60 | 20,638 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.