Issued 2026-09-16 at $46.28 · now $46.28 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AMKR has typically landed between $37.64 and $59.00 — a range of −18.7% to +27.5% from the issuance price $46.28.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($46.28) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AMKR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $46.28 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $46.28 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $46.53 (+0.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $41.79–$51.27
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $37.64–$59
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-10-23 | −57.5% | −57.5% | +14.2% |
| 2008-10-22 | −56.3% | −56.3% | +4.3% |
| 2008-11-04 | −53.3% | −61.6% | +3.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-11 | +91.0% | +0.0% | +91.0% |
| 2009-03-09 | +82.7% | +0.0% | +83.3% |
| 2009-03-18 | +82.4% | +0.0% | +82.4% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Faust Megan | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $49.05 | $49K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 134,105 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | ROGERS MARK N | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $59.78 | $299K | −11.4% of holding | −22.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,904 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Faust Megan | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $54.45 | $54K | −0.7% of holding | −7.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 135,105 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | ALEXANDER DOUGLAS A | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $55.81 | $279K | −14.7% of holding | −7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,109 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Rutten Guillaume Marie Jean | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $54.50 | $1.4M | −5.1% of holding | −12.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 461,732 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Rutten Guillaume Marie Jean | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $55.35 | $1.4M | −4.9% of holding | −13.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 486,732 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | Engel Kevin K. | director | Sale | 3,221 @ $47.00 | $151K | −25.0% of holding | −4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,666 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | ROGERS MARK N | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $65.12 | $326K | −11.4% of holding | −9.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,904 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-14 | Faust Megan | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $69.91 | $70K | −0.7% of holding | −23.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 136,105 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | ROGERS MARK N | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $86.21 | $431K | −11.4% of holding | −26.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,904 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | CHURCHILL WINSTON J | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $78.20 | $391K | −14.8% of holding | −20.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 28,781 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Faust Megan | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $70.30 | $70K | −0.8% of holding | −3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 132,138 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Faust Megan | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $64.60 | $65K | −0.7% of holding | +36.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 133,138 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | ROGERS MARK N | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $71.63 | $358K | −11.4% of holding | +30.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,904 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Tily Gil C. | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $77.30 | $1.2M | −12.1% of holding | −7.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 108,806 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Rutten Guillaume Marie Jean | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $74.28 | $3.7M | −9.0% of holding | −7.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 502,558 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Carolin Roger Anthony | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $76.24 | $1.5M | −17.5% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 94,409 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | CHURCHILL WINSTON J | director | Sale | 7,000 @ $76.45 | $535K | −27.0% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,888 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | ALEXANDER DOUGLAS A | director | Sale | 4,657 @ $76.58 | $357K | −13.8% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,109 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | ALEXANDER DOUGLAS A | director | Sale | 343 @ $76.58 | $26K | −1.2% of holding | −8.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 29,109 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-16 | ROGERS MARK N | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $59.43 | $297K | −11.4% of holding | +6.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,904 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | ROGERS MARK N | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $44.54 | $223K | −11.4% of holding | +28.9% | −9.8% | 38,904 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | Haghighi Farshad | officer | Sale | 15,624 @ $50.50 | $789K | −65.2% of holding | −4.5% | −15.8% | 8,354 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Rutten Guillaume Marie Jean | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $48.80 | $976K | −3.5% of holding | +7.3% | −11.4% | 543,866 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Engel Kevin K. | director | Sale | 12,500 @ $48.75 | $609K | −80.9% of holding | +7.3% | −11.4% | 2,953 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Rutten Guillaume Marie Jean | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $45.89 | $459K | −2.9% of holding | +3.4% | +4.4% | 339,311 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Engel Kevin K. | director | Sale | 5,316 @ $46.03 | $245K | −87.1% of holding | +3.4% | +4.4% | 786 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | ROGERS MARK N | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $46.92 | $235K | −16.7% of holding | +3.4% | +4.4% | 24,922 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | 915 Investments, LP | other | Sale | 10,000,000 @ $48.49 | $484.9M | −25.3% of holding | −11.5% | +0.1% | 29,594,980 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | KIM JOHN T | other | Sale | 10,000,000 @ $48.49 | $484.9M | −25.3% of holding | −11.5% | +0.1% | 29,594,980 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-16 | ROGERS MARK N | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $49.28 | $246K | −17.3% of holding | −1.9% | +30.7% | 23,862 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Rutten Guillaume Marie Jean | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $53.14 | $531K | −2.9% of holding | −3.4% | +19.8% | 335,391 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | ROGERS MARK N | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $42.95 | $859K | −45.6% of holding | +17.0% | +114.3% | 23,862 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Rutten Guillaume Marie Jean | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $44.80 | $448K | −2.9% of holding | +10.0% | +88.0% | 336,699 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | CHURCHILL WINSTON J | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $44.29 | $221K | −16.2% of holding | +10.0% | +88.0% | 25,888 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Tily Gil C. | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $46.44 | $929K | −13.9% of holding | +8.3% | +85.2% | 123,806 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | McCourt MaryFrances | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $46.02 | $920K | −26.3% of holding | +8.3% | +85.2% | 55,918 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-12 | Engel Kevin K. | director | Sale | 11,000 @ $46.21 | $508K | −96.9% of holding | +8.3% | +85.2% | 349 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | ROGERS MARK N | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $31.69 | $634K | −45.6% of holding | +25.2% | +110.6% | 23,862 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Rutten Guillaume Marie Jean | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $31.68 | $317K | −2.8% of holding | +25.2% | +110.6% | 346,699 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
260 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | ROGERS MARK N | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 43,904 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | ROGERS MARK N | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 70,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | ALEXANDER DOUGLAS A | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 34,109 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | ALEXANDER DOUGLAS A | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 14,657 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | CHURCHILL WINSTON J | director | Gift | 100 | 28,681 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | KIM JAMES J | other | Option exercise | 250,000 | 511,645 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | KIM AGNES C | other | Option exercise | 250,000 | 11,187,355 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | KIM AGNES C | other | Option exercise | 200,000 | 10,937,355 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | KIM JAMES J | other | Option exercise | 200,000 | 261,645 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | KIM JAMES J | other | Option exercise | 250,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | KIM JAMES J | other | Option exercise | 200,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | ROGERS MARK N | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 43,904 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-16 | ROGERS MARK N | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 75,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Faust Megan | director | Withheld for tax | 3,725 | 137,105 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Engel Kevin K. | director | Withheld for tax | 3,725 | 12,887 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Faust Megan | director | Option exercise | 8,692 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Engel Kevin K. | director | Option exercise | 8,692 | 16,612 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Engel Kevin K. | director | Option exercise | 8,692 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Rutten Guillaume Marie Jean | director | Option exercise | 8,692 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Rutten Guillaume Marie Jean | director | Option exercise | 8,692 | 511,732 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Faust Megan | director | Option exercise | 8,692 | 140,830 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | WATSON DAVID N | director | Award / grant | 3 | 2,616 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | ALEXANDER DOUGLAS A | director | Award / grant | 8 | 9,247 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | ALEXANDER DOUGLAS A | director | Award / grant | 8 | 8,904 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | ALEXANDER DOUGLAS A | director | Award / grant | 9 | 9,902 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | ALEXANDER DOUGLAS A | director | Award / grant | 3 | 2,616 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Carolin Roger Anthony | director | Award / grant | 8 | 8,904 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Carolin Roger Anthony | director | Award / grant | 9 | 9,902 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Carolin Roger Anthony | director | Award / grant | 3 | 2,616 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | CHURCHILL WINSTON J | director | Award / grant | 3 | 2,616 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Liao Daniel JL | director | Award / grant | 9 | 9,902 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Liao Daniel JL | director | Award / grant | 3 | 2,616 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | McCourt MaryFrances | director | Award / grant | 8 | 8,904 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | McCourt MaryFrances | director | Award / grant | 3 | 2,616 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Morse Robert Randolph | director | Award / grant | 8 | 8,904 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Morse Robert Randolph | director | Award / grant | 9 | 9,902 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Morse Robert Randolph | director | Award / grant | 3 | 2,616 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Rutten Guillaume Marie Jean | director | Award / grant | 3 | 2,616 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Tily Gil C. | director | Award / grant | 3 | 2,616 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | KIM SUSAN Y | director | Award / grant | 3 | 2,616 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.