Issued 2026-09-16 at $31.38 · now $31.38 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AMH has typically landed between $28.49 and $33.94 — a range of −9.2% to +8.2% from the issuance price $31.38.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,268 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-08-01 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($31.38) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AMH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $31.38 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $31.38 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $31.36 (-0.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $30.24–$32.48
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $28.49–$33.94
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,268 windows spanning 2013-08-01 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −36.8% | −36.8% | +1.5% |
| 2020-02-20 | −32.8% | −32.8% | +0.2% |
| 2020-02-24 | −28.4% | −36.0% | +2.7% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-23 | +28.9% | +0.0% | +39.1% |
| 2020-05-15 | +21.2% | +0.0% | +21.2% |
| 2016-02-11 | +20.0% | +0.0% | +20.0% |
3,268 overlapping windows · 2013-08-01 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~14 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
46%
−0.0%
n=13
Feb
31%
−1.3%
n=13
Mar
69%
+1.8%
n=13
Apr
62%
+2.6%
n=13
May
69%
+2.2%
n=13
Jun
69%
+2.8%
n=13
Jul
62%
+2.6%
n=13
Aug
46%
+0.4%
n=13
Sep
21%
−3.3%
n=14
Oct
31%
−1.3%
n=13
Nov
69%
+2.4%
n=13
Dec
31%
−0.2%
n=13
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 4,000 @ $21.50 | $86K | +19.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 25,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 3,000 @ $21.47 | $64K | +17.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 20,200 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $21.55 | $22K | +4.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 24,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $21.60 | $22K | +4.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 23,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $22.43 | $45K | +10.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 21,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 1,800 @ $22.46 | $40K | +11.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 17,200 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $22.39 | $22K | +4.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 22,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 700 @ $22.39 | $16K | +53.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 200 @ $22.35 | $4K | +66.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 500 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 100 @ $22.39 | $2K | +20.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 600 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | BENHAM DOUGLAS N | director | Purchase | 500 @ $22.51 | $11K | +2.8% of holding | −5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,521 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | BENHAM DOUGLAS N | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $23.70 | $47K | +4.5% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,717 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | BENHAM DOUGLAS N | director | Purchase | 1,500 @ $22.60 | $34K | +9.1% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,021 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $22.85 | $46K | +14.9% of holding | −4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,400 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $22.79 | $46K | +11.8% of holding | −4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $22.70 | $23K | +5.0% of holding | −4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 1,952 @ $23.53 | $46K | +13.0% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-18 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 89 @ $23.50 | $2K | +0.7% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,400 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-15 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 1,311 @ $23.40 | $31K | +10.9% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,311 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 48 @ $23.40 | $1K | +0.3% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,048 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $23.25 | $23K | +9.1% of holding | +6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 400 @ $23.25 | $9K | +2.0% of holding | +6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 100 @ $23.25 | $2K | ownership Δ n/a | +6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 100 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 94 @ $23.25 | $2K | +1566.7% of holding | +6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 100 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 6 @ $23.00 | $138 | ownership Δ n/a | +4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 6 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Goldberg David | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $29.30 | $59K | +5.8% of holding | −1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,723 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | BENHAM DOUGLAS N | director | Purchase | 1,200 @ $24.20 | $29K | +2.8% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 44,717 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | BENHAM DOUGLAS N | director | Purchase | 1,571 @ $24.00 | $38K | +3.7% of holding | +1.3% | −1.9% | 43,517 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Reitz Brian | officer | Sale | 7,000 @ $29.34 | $205K | −22.1% of holding | −2.5% | −4.0% | 24,625 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Goldberg David | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $29.17 | $58K | +6.1% of holding | −2.5% | −4.0% | 34,723 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | BENHAM DOUGLAS N | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $29.15 | $58K | +6.2% of holding | −1.2% | −2.0% | 34,227 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 2,300 @ $22.97 | $53K | +13.3% of holding | −1.2% | −2.0% | 19,600 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $22.95 | $23K | +7.1% of holding | −1.2% | −2.0% | 15,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $22.95 | $23K | +10.0% of holding | −1.2% | −2.0% | 11,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 300 @ $22.95 | $7K | +30.0% of holding | −1.2% | −2.0% | 1,300 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 100 @ $22.90 | $2K | +25.0% of holding | −1.2% | −2.0% | 500 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 100 @ $22.90 | $2K | +33.3% of holding | −1.2% | −2.0% | 400 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 100 @ $22.90 | $2K | ownership Δ n/a | −1.2% | −2.0% | 100 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 2,300 @ $23.00 | $53K | +15.3% of holding | +2.0% | +3.1% | 17,300 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $22.93 | $46K | +16.7% of holding | +2.0% | +3.1% | 14,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-09 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 700 @ $22.90 | $16K | +7.5% of holding | +2.0% | +3.1% | 10,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | BENHAM DOUGLAS N | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $31.65 | $32K | +14.3% of holding | −3.6% | −8.9% | 7,991 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | HART MATTHEW J | director | Sale | 23,270 @ $34.45 | $802K | −27.6% of holding | −8.8% | −19.7% | 61,002 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | Willoughby Jay | director | Purchase | 1,459 @ $34.25 | $50K | +5.5% of holding | −2.9% | −14.9% | 28,055 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 3,000 @ $22.92 | $69K | +25.0% of holding | −5.6% | −28.1% | 15,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-12 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $22.94 | $23K | +9.1% of holding | −5.6% | −28.1% | 12,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | BENHAM DOUGLAS N | director | Sale | 1,700 @ $38.37 | $65K | −7.1% of holding | −10.4% | −35.5% | 22,227 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $38.89 | $972K | −25.5% of holding | −10.0% | −38.8% | 72,928 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | Vogt-Lowell Sara H. | officer | Sale | 20,000 @ $39.02 | $780K | −15.8% of holding | −10.0% | −38.8% | 106,714 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | Vogt-Lowell Sara H. | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $39.01 | $585K | −10.6% of holding | −10.0% | −38.8% | 126,714 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | Vogt-Lowell Sara H. | officer | Sale | 7,500 @ $39.01 | $293K | −7.0% of holding | −10.0% | −38.8% | 99,214 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $23.37 | $47K | +22.2% of holding | −10.0% | −38.8% | 11,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $23.48 | $23K | +9.1% of holding | −10.0% | −38.8% | 12,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $23.45 | $23K | +12.0% of holding | −10.0% | −38.8% | 9,300 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 2,300 @ $23.26 | $53K | +38.3% of holding | +6.7% | −15.2% | 8,300 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 3,000 @ $23.30 | $70K | +50.0% of holding | +5.4% | −15.8% | 9,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $23.36 | $23K | +10.0% of holding | +5.4% | −15.8% | 11,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 200 @ $23.25 | $5K | +100.0% of holding | +5.4% | −15.8% | 400 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 200 @ $23.20 | $5K | +100.0% of holding | +5.4% | −15.8% | 400 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Purchase | 100 @ $23.24 | $2K | +50.0% of holding | +5.4% | −15.8% | 300 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
90 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-05 | GUSTAVSON TAMARA HUGHES | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 9,405,345 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | GUSTAVSON TAMARA HUGHES | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 9,395,345 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | GUSTAVSON TAMARA HUGHES | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 9,415,345 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-05 | GUSTAVSON TAMARA HUGHES | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | GUSTAVSON TAMARA HUGHES | director | Award / grant | 5,421 | 9,385,345 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | CORRIGAN JACK E | director | Award / grant | 5,421 | 82,732 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | HART MATTHEW J | director | Award / grant | 7,016 | 68,018 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | BENHAM DOUGLAS N | director | Award / grant | 5,421 | 39,648 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | SWANN LYNN C | director | Award / grant | 5,421 | 41,331 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Webb Winifred Markus | director | Award / grant | 5,421 | 32,017 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Willoughby Jay | director | Award / grant | 5,421 | 33,476 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Kerrick Michelle C. | director | Award / grant | 5,421 | 5,421 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | ZAIST MATTHEW R | director | Award / grant | 5,421 | 32,829 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-19 | Lau Christopher | officer | Gift | 1,075 | 311,012 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-07 | Lau Christopher | officer | Disposition | 27,946 | 312,087 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-07 | Smith Bryan | director | Disposition | 21,612 | 284,164 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-07 | Vogt-Lowell Sara H. | officer | Disposition | 14,928 | 122,838 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-07 | Reitz Brian | officer | Disposition | 1,634 | 31,625 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-07 | Smith Bryan | director | Award / grant | 47,687 | 305,776 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-07 | Vogt-Lowell Sara H. | officer | Award / grant | 25,474 | 137,766 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-07 | Lau Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 47,687 | 340,033 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-07 | Reitz Brian | officer | Award / grant | 3,179 | 33,259 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-03 | Lau Christopher | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,906 | 292,346 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-03 | Smith Bryan | director | Withheld for tax | 3,020 | 258,089 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-03 | Vogt-Lowell Sara H. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,978 | 112,292 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-03 | Reitz Brian | officer | Withheld for tax | 446 | 30,080 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Smith Bryan | director | Withheld for tax | 6,923 | 261,109 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Lau Christopher | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,780 | 296,252 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Vogt-Lowell Sara H. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,802 | 114,270 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Reitz Brian | officer | Withheld for tax | 588 | 30,526 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Reitz Brian | officer | Award / grant | 5,104 | 31,114 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Smith Bryan | director | Award / grant | 68,923 | 268,032 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Lau Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 31,799 | 301,032 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-02 | Vogt-Lowell Sara H. | officer | Award / grant | 17,858 | 117,072 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-09 | HART MATTHEW J | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 74,272 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-09 | HART MATTHEW J | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 64,272 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-09 | HART MATTHEW J | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 84,272 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-09 | HART MATTHEW J | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-05 | BENHAM DOUGLAS N | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 32,227 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-05 | BENHAM DOUGLAS N | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 20,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-31 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-30 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-30 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | purchase | 2025-10-22 | 2025-09-25 | $1–15K |
| Ritchie John Torres | House | sale | 2025-08-20 | 2025-07-11 | $1–15K |
| Ritchie John Torres | House | purchase | 2025-08-20 | 2024-09-26 | $1–15K |
| William R. Keating | House | purchase | 2022-05-05 | 2022-03-29 | $1–15K |
| Donna Shalala | House | sale | 2020-04-27 | 2019-06-24 | $1–15K |
| Donna Shalala | House | purchase | 2020-04-27 | 2019-06-04 | $1–15K |
| Robert P Corker Jr | Senate | sale | 2014-06-10 | 2014-05-20 | $1–15K |
| Robert P Corker Jr | Senate | purchase | 2014-06-10 | 2014-01-08 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.