AMGNAmgen Inc.Healthcare · Drug Manufacturers - Generalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $376.35 · now $376.35 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AMGN has typically landed between $344.22 and $426.48 — a range of −8.5% to +13.3% from the issuance price $376.35.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($376.35) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AMGN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $376.35 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$344.22worst · -8.5%$426.48best · +13.3%
  • now $376.35 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $379.75 (+0.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $360.78–$398.73
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $344.22–$426.48
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-16−27.5%−27.5%+0.0%
2008-09-11−23.4%−23.4%+3.9%
2020-02-11−19.8%−19.8%+0.0%
3 best
2008-06-27+34.3%+0.0%+34.3%
2008-06-30+32.1%+0.0%+32.1%
2008-06-26+30.5%+0.0%+30.5%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$203.0B
market cap
$14.37
EPS (TTM)
26.2
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-04
next earnings
Revenue$36.7B
'20'25
Net income$7.7B
'20'25
Free cash flow$8.1B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr21.0%
'20'25
ROE · by yr89.1%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr6.31
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 54 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $376.35$119.75$1,066
  • DCF (intrinsic)$1,001
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 27.4× · n=54$394.32
  • Analyst target · range $185.00–$427.00$360.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$376.35

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
61%
+1.3%
n=18
Feb
47%
−0.3%
n=19
Mar
63%
+1.3%
n=19
Apr
37%
−0.2%
n=19
May
42%
+0.5%
n=19
Jun
68%
+2.2%
n=19
Jul
89%
+7.6%
n=19
Aug
63%
+1.3%
n=19
Sep
47%
−1.5%
n=19
Oct
56%
+1.1%
n=18
Nov
72%
+2.2%
n=18
Dec
56%
+0.7%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$444$2652026-08-13: 1 insider sale, $521K — Khosla Rachna2026-08-11: 1 insider sale, $825K — Khosla Rachna2026-08-06: 4 insider sales, $2.8M — Miller Derek, Grygiel Nancy A. …2026-05-04: 1 insider sale, $400K — Grygiel Nancy A.2026-02-26: 2 insider sales, $20.8M — Santos Esteban …2026-02-19: 1 insider sale, $376K — Busch Matthew C.2025-11-20: 2 insider sales, $1.1M — Grygiel Nancy A. …2025-11-12: 2 insider sales, $2.6M — Gordon Murdo, Khosla Rachna2025-08-20: 1 insider sale, $376K — Grygiel Nancy A.2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $376K2025-11: 4 open-market sales, $3.7M2026-02: 3 open-market sales, $21.1M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $400K2026-08: 6 open-market sales, $4.1M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Khosla Rachna — Sale on 2026-08-13, filed same dayofficer Khosla Rachna — Sale on 2026-08-11, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Miller Derek — Sale on 2026-08-06, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Grygiel Nancy A. — Sale on 2026-08-06, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Miller Derek — Sale on 2026-08-06, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Grygiel Nancy A. — Sale on 2026-08-06, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Grygiel Nancy A. — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Santos Esteban — Sale on 2026-02-26, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Santos Esteban — Sale on 2026-02-26, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Busch Matthew C. — Sale on 2026-02-19, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Grygiel Nancy A. — Sale on 2025-11-20, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Grygiel Nancy A. — Sale on 2025-11-20, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Gordon Murdo — Sale on 2025-11-12, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Khosla Rachna — Sale on 2025-11-12, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Grygiel Nancy A. — Sale on 2025-08-20, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-13Khosla RachnaofficerSale1,252 @ $416.43$521K−16.4% of holding−6.5%not yet — horizon still open6,404Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-11Khosla RachnaofficerSale2,000 @ $412.57$825K−23.8% of holding−6.0%not yet — horizon still open6,404Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-06Miller DerekofficerSale2,069 @ $402.54$833K−14.2% of holding+7.8%not yet — horizon still open12,462Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-06Grygiel Nancy A.officerSale1,970 @ $402.16$792K−21.2% of holding+7.8%not yet — horizon still open7,340Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-06Miller DerekofficerSale1,821 @ $402.54$733K−12.7% of holding+7.8%not yet — horizon still open12,462Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-06Grygiel Nancy A.officerSale1,000 @ $402.16$402K−12.0% of holding+7.8%not yet — horizon still open7,340Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-04Grygiel Nancy A.officerSale1,237 @ $323.73$400K−15.0% of holding+0.2%not yet — horizon still open7,009Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-26Santos EstebanofficerSale30,501 @ $379.12$11.6M−28.5% of holding−0.3%+3.6%76,618Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-26Santos EstebanofficerSale24,291 @ $379.12$9.2M−24.1% of holding−0.3%+3.6%76,618Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-19Busch Matthew C.officerSale1,000 @ $375.79$376K−22.6% of holding−2.4%+3.7%3,423Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-20Grygiel Nancy A.officerSale1,639 @ $337.26$553K−18.5% of holding−5.9%−13.5%7,225Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-20Grygiel Nancy A.officerSale1,500 @ $337.26$506K−17.2% of holding−5.9%−13.5%7,225Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12Gordon MurdoofficerSale6,879 @ $336.83$2.3M−14.1% of holding−4.6%−9.6%41,923Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12Khosla RachnaofficerSale890 @ $336.24$299K−11.2% of holding−4.6%−9.6%7,082Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-20Grygiel Nancy A.officerSale1,267 @ $296.99$376K−14.9% of holding−7.2%+20.6%7,209Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-05Khosla RachnaofficerSale1,500 @ $289.68$435K−15.5% of holding−1.5%+4.2%8,162Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-02Busch Matthew C.officerSale1,000 @ $279.69$280K−19.9% of holding−1.3%−13.1%4,034Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-21REESE DAVID MofficerSale25,225 @ $304.44$7.7M−40.6% of holding+7.8%−9.6%36,922Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-19REESE DAVID MofficerSale8,711 @ $293.22$2.6M−12.3% of holding+14.8%−3.1%62,147Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-19Santos EstebanofficerSale8,711 @ $292.84$2.6M−10.9% of holding+14.8%−3.1%71,546Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-19Miller DerekofficerSale1,524 @ $293.74$448K−15.1% of holding+14.8%−3.1%8,544Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-18Miller DerekofficerSale500 @ $292.56$146K−5.5% of holding+15.1%−3.4%8,544Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-11Gordon MurdoofficerSale8,771 @ $294.79$2.6M−16.6% of holding+15.1%−8.0%44,186Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-07Graham Jonathan PofficerSale25,045 @ $293.12$7.3M−46.4% of holding+17.0%−7.7%28,987Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-05Grygiel Nancy A.officerSale1,589 @ $304.47$484K−18.1% of holding+11.1%−11.2%7,210Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

230 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-13Khosla RachnaofficerOption exercise1,2527,656Form 4
2026-08-13Khosla RachnaofficerOption exercise1,2520Form 4
2026-08-07ISHRAK OMARdirectorAward / grant857,486Form 4
2026-08-07HOLLEY CHARLES MdirectorAward / grant10312,990Form 4
2026-08-07Drake Michael VdirectorAward / grant645,876Form 4
2026-08-07Busch Matthew C.officerAward / grant7305,080Form 4
2026-08-06Grygiel Nancy A.officerOption exercise1,9709,310Form 4
2026-08-06Miller DerekofficerOption exercise2,06914,531Form 4
2026-08-06Miller DerekofficerOption exercise1,82114,283Form 4
2026-08-06Grygiel Nancy A.officerOption exercise1,0008,340Form 4
2026-08-06Grygiel Nancy A.officerOption exercise1,0002,948Form 4
2026-08-06Miller DerekofficerOption exercise2,0690Form 4
2026-08-06Miller DerekofficerOption exercise1,8210Form 4
2026-08-06Grygiel Nancy A.officerOption exercise1,9700Form 4
2026-05-19Garland Greg C.directorAward / grant66513,848Form 4
2026-05-19ECKERT ROBERTdirectorAward / grant66526,251Form 4
2026-05-19HOLLEY CHARLES MdirectorAward / grant66512,799Form 4
2026-05-19MILES AMY EdirectorAward / grant6655,640Form 4
2026-05-19Jacks TylerdirectorAward / grant66518,284Form 4
2026-05-19ISHRAK OMARdirectorAward / grant6657,359Form 4
2026-05-19Druker BriandirectorAward / grant6658,391Form 4
2026-05-19Austin Wanda MdirectorAward / grant6658,018Form 4
2026-05-19Klotman Mary E.directorAward / grant6652,211Form 4
2026-05-19Drake Michael VdirectorAward / grant6655,774Form 4
2026-05-19Kullman Ellen JamisondirectorAward / grant66514,536Form 4
2026-05-07Bradway Robert AdirectorWithheld for tax2,079505,160Form 4
2026-05-07Gordon MurdoofficerWithheld for tax61551,222Form 4
2026-05-07Griffith Peter H.officerWithheld for tax55650,150Form 4
2026-05-07REESE DAVID MofficerWithheld for tax55642,256Form 4
2026-05-07Santos EstebanofficerWithheld for tax52282,847Form 4
2026-05-07Graham Jonathan PofficerWithheld for tax49939,712Form 4
2026-05-07Bradner James E.officerWithheld for tax44630,016Form 4
2026-05-07Miller DerekofficerWithheld for tax15112,444Form 4
2026-05-07Khosla RachnaofficerWithheld for tax938,394Form 4
2026-05-07Grygiel Nancy A.officerWithheld for tax887,330Form 4
2026-05-07Busch Matthew C.officerWithheld for tax414,344Form 4
2026-05-06Bradway Robert AdirectorWithheld for tax1,702507,239Form 4
2026-05-06Gordon MurdoofficerWithheld for tax50251,837Form 4
2026-05-06Griffith Peter H.officerWithheld for tax50250,706Form 4
2026-05-06REESE DAVID MofficerWithheld for tax45442,812Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatesale2026-07-212026-03-27$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-16$1–15K
David J. TaylorHousepurchase2026-06-122026-06-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-01$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-15$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-24$15–50K
Maria Elvira SalazarHousesale2026-05-082026-04-17$15–50K
Maria Elvira SalazarHousepurchase2026-04-212026-03-24$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-30$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-24$15–50K
David J. TaylorHousesale2026-03-062026-02-26$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.