AMGAffiliated Managers Group, Inc.as of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $342.82 · now $342.82 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AMG has typically landed between $300.14 and $391.21 — a range of −12.4% to +14.1% from the issuance price $342.82.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($342.82) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AMG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $342.82 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$300.14worst · -12.4%$391.21best · +14.1%
  • now $342.82 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $347.5 (+1.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $329.61–$365.39
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $300.14–$391.21
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−58.2%−58.2%+0.0%
2008-10-22−56.1%−56.1%+13.7%
2008-09-25−55.9%−55.9%+0.3%
3 best
2008-11-21+87.2%+0.0%+103.2%
2008-12-01+82.0%+0.0%+82.0%
2008-11-20+81.2%−2.0%+99.2%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
−0.3%
n=18
Feb
53%
+1.7%
n=19
Mar
58%
+1.3%
n=19
Apr
68%
+3.7%
n=19
May
42%
−2.4%
n=19
Jun
47%
−0.1%
n=19
Jul
68%
+3.9%
n=19
Aug
37%
−1.8%
n=19
Sep
42%
−1.0%
n=19
Oct
50%
+0.1%
n=18
Nov
78%
+3.4%
n=18
Dec
61%
+5.0%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$380$2172026-06-08: 1 insider sale, $5.9M — Horgen Jay C.2026-06-01: 1 insider purchase, $229K — FRANQUI ANNETTE2026-05-08: 1 insider sale, $300K — Matos Rodriguez Felix V.2026-05-06: 1 insider sale, $1.0M — Ryan David Christopher2026-05-06: 1 insider purchase, $459K — Cates G. Staley2026-03-09: 1 insider sale, $612K — Padiyar Kavita2026-03-06: 1 insider sale, $2.3M — Wojcik Thomas M2025-09-09: 1 insider sale, $3.7M — Wojcik Thomas M2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $3.7M2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $2.9M2026-05: 1 open-market purchase, $459K2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $1.3M2026-06: 1 open-market purchase, $229K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $5.9M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Horgen Jay C. — Sale on 2026-06-08, filed same daydirector FRANQUI ANNETTE — Purchase on 2026-06-01, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Matos Rodriguez Felix V. — Sale on 2026-05-08, filed same daydirector Ryan David Christopher — Sale on 2026-05-06, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Cates G. Staley — Purchase on 2026-05-06, filed same dayofficer Padiyar Kavita — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed same dayofficer Wojcik Thomas M — Sale on 2026-03-06, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Wojcik Thomas M — Sale on 2025-09-09, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-08Horgen Jay C.directorSale17,500 @ $338.27$5.9M−7.9% of holding+6.5%not yet — horizon still open204,706Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-01FRANQUI ANNETTEdirectorPurchase750 @ $304.88$229K+61.9% of holding+12.8%not yet — horizon still open1,962Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-08Matos Rodriguez Felix V.directorSale1,000 @ $300.18$300K−18.6% of holding+13.1%not yet — horizon still open4,369Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-06Ryan David ChristopherdirectorSale3,402 @ $305.06$1.0M−75.7% of holding+9.6%not yet — horizon still open1,092Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-06Cates G. StaleydirectorPurchase1,500 @ $305.83$459K+30.6% of holding+9.6%not yet — horizon still open6,405Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-09Padiyar KavitaofficerSale2,200 @ $278.24$612K−4.9% of holding+1.8%not yet — horizon still open42,672Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-06Wojcik Thomas MofficerSale8,000 @ $286.30$2.3M−4.8% of holding−3.7%not yet — horizon still open159,465Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-09Wojcik Thomas MofficerSale16,000 @ $231.03$3.7M−9.2% of holding+0.6%+17.0%158,710Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

168 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-15Palandjian Tracy P.directorOption exercise84818,375Form 4
2026-08-15FRANQUI ANNETTEdirectorOption exercise477609Form 4
2026-08-15FRANQUI ANNETTEdirectorOption exercise4772,439Form 4
2026-08-15Matos Rodriguez Felix V.directorOption exercise6541,127Form 4
2026-08-15Matos Rodriguez Felix V.directorOption exercise6545,023Form 4
2026-08-15STARR LOREN MdirectorOption exercise7163,027Form 4
2026-08-15STARR LOREN MdirectorOption exercise7162,653Form 4
2026-08-15Palandjian Tracy P.directorOption exercise8481,731Form 4
2026-07-30STARR LOREN MdirectorAward / grant210210Form 4
2026-07-30STARR LOREN MdirectorAward / grant411411Form 4
2026-07-30FRANQUI ANNETTEdirectorAward / grant274274Form 4
2026-07-30Palandjian Tracy P.directorAward / grant274274Form 4
2026-07-30Matos Rodriguez Felix V.directorAward / grant274274Form 4
2026-07-30Engel MarcydirectorAward / grant274274Form 4
2026-07-30Cates G. StaleydirectorAward / grant274274Form 4
2026-06-12Palandjian Tracy P.directorWithheld for tax68517,527Form 4
2026-06-12Palandjian Tracy P.directorOption exercise2,95818,212Form 4
2026-06-12Palandjian Tracy P.directorOption exercise2,9580Form 4
2026-06-08Horgen Jay C.directorWithheld for tax39,671222,206Form 4
2026-06-08Horgen Jay C.directorOption exercise75,000261,877Form 4
2026-06-08Horgen Jay C.directorOption exercise75,0000Form 4
2026-05-01Cates G. StaleydirectorAward / grant172172Form 4
2026-03-05Horgen Jay C.directorWithheld for tax18,333336,877Form 4
2026-03-05Wojcik Thomas MofficerWithheld for tax9,136167,465Form 4
2026-03-05Padiyar KavitaofficerWithheld for tax2,28244,872Form 4
2026-03-05RITCHEA DAVAofficerWithheld for tax292309Form 4
2026-03-05Alvingham Karen L.directorWithheld for tax6713,043Form 4
2026-03-05Alvingham Karen L.directorOption exercise8673,709Form 4
2026-03-05Padiyar KavitaofficerAward / grant1,1911,191Form 4
2026-03-05Padiyar KavitaofficerOption exercise2,2882,670Form 4
2026-03-05Padiyar KavitaofficerAward / grant2,42647,154Form 4
2026-03-05Padiyar KavitaofficerOption exercise2,28844,728Form 4
2026-03-05Horgen Jay C.directorAward / grant8,5448,544Form 4
2026-03-05Horgen Jay C.directorOption exercise17,56322,891Form 4
2026-03-05Horgen Jay C.directorAward / grant27,260355,210Form 4
2026-03-05Horgen Jay C.directorOption exercise17,563327,950Form 4
2026-03-05RITCHEA DAVAofficerAward / grant1,6671,667Form 4
2026-03-05RITCHEA DAVAofficerOption exercise6011,804Form 4
2026-03-05RITCHEA DAVAofficerOption exercise601601Form 4
2026-03-05Alvingham Karen L.directorAward / grant9898Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2020-05-132020-04-07$1–15K
Dean PhillipsHousesale2020-05-072020-04-02$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2020-04-162020-03-18$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2019-11-122019-10-21$1–15K
Dean PhillipsHousepurchase2019-09-162019-08-13$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2019-09-112019-08-14$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2019-09-112019-08-12$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2019-07-112019-06-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2019-04-112019-03-26$1–15K
Dean HellerSenatesale2018-08-222018-08-03$1–15K
Dean HellerSenatesale2018-07-032018-06-15$1–15K
Lamar SmithHousesale2018-03-072018-02-08$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2017-07-272017-07-06$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2017-07-272017-07-06$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.