AMEAMETEK, Inc.Industrials · Industrial - Machineryas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $232.19 · now $232.19 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AME has typically landed between $212.52 and $255.30 — a range of −8.5% to +10.0% from the issuance price $232.19.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($232.19) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AME has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $232.19 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$212.52worst · -8.5%$255.3best · +10.0%
  • now $232.19 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $234.53 (+1.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $225.41–$243.66
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $212.52–$255.3
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−41.3%−41.3%+0.0%
2020-02-13−38.2%−38.2%+0.0%
2020-02-20−36.8%−37.7%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-23+30.4%+0.0%+37.9%
2009-03-02+27.1%+0.0%+32.8%
2009-03-03+26.1%+0.0%+29.6%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$55.5B
market cap
$6.62
EPS (TTM)
36.6
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-04
next earnings
Revenue$7.4B
'20'25
Net income$1.5B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.7B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr20.0%
'20'25
ROE · by yr13.9%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.22
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $232.19$159.55$313.63
  • DCF (intrinsic)$170.17
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$202.92
  • Analyst target · range $230.00–$303.00$255.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$232.19

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+0.8%
n=18
Feb
63%
+1.6%
n=19
Mar
74%
+1.5%
n=19
Apr
58%
+2.0%
n=19
May
58%
+0.8%
n=19
Jun
37%
+0.8%
n=19
Jul
58%
+1.4%
n=19
Aug
42%
+0.1%
n=19
Sep
47%
−0.7%
n=19
Oct
61%
+2.0%
n=18
Nov
89%
+6.5%
n=18
Dec
56%
+0.2%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$259$1782026-08-11: 1 insider purchase, $1.0M — Stanage Nick L2026-08-07: 1 insider sale, $1.7M — Hermance David F.2026-03-24: 1 insider sale, $115K — AMATO THOMAS A2025-12-22: 1 insider sale, $1.3M — MONTGOMERY THOMAS M2025-12-15: 1 insider sale, $2.9M — Marecic Thomas C2025-12-12: 1 insider sale, $5.7M — ZAPICO DAVID A2025-11-25: 3 insider sales, $17.3M — ZAPICO DAVID A …2025-11-12: 1 insider sale, $540K — Speranza Emanuela2025-10-31: 1 insider sale, $5.3M — Oscher Ronald J2025-09-11: 1 insider sale, $1.5M — Hardin John Wesley2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $1.5M2025-10: 1 open-market sale, $5.3M2025-11: 4 open-market sales, $17.8M2025-12: 3 open-market sales, $9.9M2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $115K2026-08: 1 open-market purchase, $1.0M2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $1.7M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Stanage Nick L — Purchase on 2026-08-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hermance David F. — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 3 days after the tradedirector AMATO THOMAS A — Sale on 2026-03-24, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer MONTGOMERY THOMAS M — Sale on 2025-12-22, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Marecic Thomas C — Sale on 2025-12-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector ZAPICO DAVID A — Sale on 2025-12-12, filed same daydirector ZAPICO DAVID A — Sale on 2025-11-25, filed 1 day after the tradedirector ZAPICO DAVID A — Sale on 2025-11-25, filed 1 day after the tradedirector ZAPICO DAVID A — Sale on 2025-11-25, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Speranza Emanuela — Sale on 2025-11-12, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Oscher Ronald J — Sale on 2025-10-31, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Hardin John Wesley — Sale on 2025-09-11, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-11Stanage Nick LdirectorPurchase4,000 @ $255.85$1.0M+526.3% of holding−7.1%not yet — horizon still open4,760Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-07Hermance David F.officerSale6,608 @ $254.00$1.7M−13.5% of holding−5.3%not yet — horizon still open42,509Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-24AMATO THOMAS AdirectorSale530 @ $216.78$115K−10.6% of holding−0.2%not yet — horizon still open4,480Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-22MONTGOMERY THOMAS MofficerSale6,388 @ $205.05$1.3M−22.4% of holding+6.4%+9.4%22,116Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-15Marecic Thomas CofficerSale14,310 @ $202.11$2.9M−25.1% of holding+3.8%+4.7%42,589Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-12ZAPICO DAVID AdirectorSale28,390 @ $201.76$5.7M−100.0% of holding+3.1%+4.6%0Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-25ZAPICO DAVID AdirectorSale54,753 @ $196.86$10.8M−13.6% of holding+3.3%+2.2%348,955Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-25ZAPICO DAVID AdirectorSale25,815 @ $195.82$5.1M−6.0% of holding+3.3%+2.2%403,708Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-25ZAPICO DAVID AdirectorSale7,432 @ $194.89$1.4M−1.7% of holding+3.3%+2.2%429,523Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12Speranza EmanuelaofficerSale2,700 @ $200.00$540K−8.7% of holding+2.9%+7.4%28,293Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-31Oscher Ronald JofficerSale26,290 @ $200.05$5.3M−39.5% of holding−2.3%+9.8%40,226Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-11Hardin John WesleyofficerSale7,867 @ $188.03$1.5M−10.8% of holding−6.1%+10.8%65,235Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-27AMATO THOMAS AdirectorSale710 @ $176.64$125K−6.3% of holding−2.4%−10.9%10,560Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03Kohlhagen Steven WdirectorSale1,320 @ $189.41$250K−5.7% of holding−4.1%−10.9%22,029Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

201 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-07Hermance David F.officerOption exercise6,60849,117Form 4
2026-08-07Hermance David F.officerOption exercise6,6080Form 4
2026-05-27Oscher Ronald JofficerOther acquisition39,95439,954Form 4
2026-05-27Oscher Ronald JofficerOther acquisition39,9542,887Form 4
2026-05-07Stanage Nick LdirectorAward / grant760760Form 4
2026-03-24AMATO THOMAS AdirectorOther acquisition5007,000Form 4
2026-03-24AMATO THOMAS AdirectorOther acquisition5003,980Form 4
2026-03-22ZAPICO DAVID AdirectorWithheld for tax2,092343,595Form 4
2026-03-22Marecic Thomas CofficerWithheld for tax29445,053Form 4
2026-03-22Hermance David F.officerWithheld for tax28342,509Form 4
2026-03-22Hardin John WesleyofficerWithheld for tax27967,859Form 4
2026-03-22CIAMPITTI TONY JofficerWithheld for tax26655,754Form 4
2026-03-22Oscher Ronald JofficerWithheld for tax26642,841Form 4
2026-03-22Speranza EmanuelaofficerWithheld for tax15530,516Form 4
2026-03-22Puri DalipofficerWithheld for tax6711,528Form 4
2026-03-22Amodei RobertofficerWithheld for tax6344,110Form 4
2026-03-22Speranza EmanuelaofficerOption exercise34430,671Form 4
2026-03-22Speranza EmanuelaofficerOption exercise3440Form 4
2026-03-19ZAPICO DAVID AdirectorWithheld for tax1,412345,687Form 4
2026-03-19Puri DalipofficerWithheld for tax23711,595Form 4
2026-03-19Hermance David F.officerWithheld for tax18642,792Form 4
2026-03-19Marecic Thomas CofficerWithheld for tax18645,347Form 4
2026-03-19Hardin John WesleyofficerWithheld for tax17868,138Form 4
2026-03-19CIAMPITTI TONY JofficerWithheld for tax16956,020Form 4
2026-03-19Oscher Ronald JofficerWithheld for tax16943,107Form 4
2026-03-19Speranza EmanuelaofficerWithheld for tax10430,327Form 4
2026-03-19Amodei RobertofficerWithheld for tax4844,173Form 4
2026-03-19Speranza EmanuelaofficerOption exercise230230Form 4
2026-03-19Speranza EmanuelaofficerOption exercise23030,431Form 4
2026-03-18ZAPICO DAVID AdirectorAward / grant11,930348,703Form 4
2026-03-18Puri DalipofficerAward / grant3,78012,167Form 4
2026-03-18ZAPICO DAVID AdirectorWithheld for tax1,604347,099Form 4
2026-03-18Hardin John WesleyofficerAward / grant1,36068,553Form 4
2026-03-18Oscher Ronald JofficerAward / grant1,30043,505Form 4
2026-03-18CIAMPITTI TONY JofficerAward / grant1,30056,418Form 4
2026-03-18Hermance David F.officerAward / grant1,24043,226Form 4
2026-03-18Marecic Thomas CofficerAward / grant1,24045,786Form 4
2026-03-18Carpenter Tod E.directorAward / grant95010,480Form 4
2026-03-18Seavers DeandirectorAward / grant9505,600Form 4
2026-03-18Stefany SuzannedirectorAward / grant9505,030Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-10$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-03-092026-02-10$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-02-132026-01-09$1–15K
Dan NewhouseHousepurchase2025-09-172025-08-18$1–15K
Valerie HoyleHousepurchase2025-09-122024-10-29$1–15K
Valerie HoyleHousesale2025-09-122025-01-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-06-102025-05-28$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-05-122025-04-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-05-122025-04-15$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.