Issued 2026-09-25 at $630.63 · now $630.63 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, AMD has typically landed between $504.32 and $823.45 — a range of −20.0% to +30.6% from the issuance price $630.63.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($630.63) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AMD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $630.63 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $630.63 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $635.86 (+0.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $558.72–$713.01
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $504.32–$823.45
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,692 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-10-22 | −47.2% | −47.2% | +5.0% |
| 2018-09-27 | −45.9% | −45.9% | +0.0% |
| 2008-10-21 | −45.8% | −45.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-09 | +92.4% | +0.0% | +92.4% |
| 2026-04-07 | +90.2% | +0.0% | +90.2% |
| 2026-04-10 | +87.2% | +0.0% | +87.2% |
4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$851.1B
market cap
$3.06
EPS (TTM)
170.6
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-04
next earnings
Revenue$34.6B
'20'25
Net income$4.3B
'20'25
Free cash flow$6.7B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr12.5%
'20'25
ROE · by yr6.9%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.07
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$48.73
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$104.67
- Analyst target · range $260.00–$1,250$600.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$630.63
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+2.1%
n=18
Feb
47%
+3.5%
n=19
Mar
58%
+3.6%
n=19
Apr
58%
+4.7%
n=19
May
63%
+11.0%
n=19
Jun
53%
+0.6%
n=19
Jul
58%
+2.9%
n=19
Aug
47%
+3.0%
n=19
Sep
32%
+0.2%
n=19
Oct
39%
−3.8%
n=18
Nov
61%
+10.3%
n=18
Dec
44%
+4.2%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Norrod Forrest Eugene | director | Sale | 5,878 @ $502.45 | $3.0M | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 371,171 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Norrod Forrest Eugene | director | Sale | 4,604 @ $504.00 | $2.3M | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 366,567 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Norrod Forrest Eugene | director | Sale | 2,225 @ $505.12 | $1.1M | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 364,342 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Norrod Forrest Eugene | director | Sale | 1,655 @ $501.70 | $830K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 377,049 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Norrod Forrest Eugene | director | Sale | 1,017 @ $500.67 | $509K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 378,704 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Norrod Forrest Eugene | director | Sale | 757 @ $498.30 | $377K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 379,821 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Norrod Forrest Eugene | director | Sale | 726 @ $505.90 | $367K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 363,616 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Norrod Forrest Eugene | director | Sale | 299 @ $506.88 | $152K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 363,317 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Norrod Forrest Eugene | director | Sale | 100 @ $498.98 | $50K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 379,721 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Su Lisa T | director | Sale | 13,123 @ $504.75 | $6.6M | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,083,137 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Su Lisa T | director | Sale | 12,982 @ $505.63 | $6.6M | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,070,155 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Su Lisa T | director | Sale | 10,524 @ $506.62 | $5.3M | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,059,631 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Su Lisa T | director | Sale | 8,343 @ $509.71 | $4.3M | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,035,256 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Su Lisa T | director | Sale | 8,070 @ $507.71 | $4.1M | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,051,561 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Su Lisa T | director | Sale | 7,962 @ $508.78 | $4.1M | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,043,599 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Su Lisa T | director | Sale | 5,896 @ $503.74 | $3.0M | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,096,260 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Su Lisa T | director | Sale | 4,600 @ $504.76 | $2.3M | −4.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 92,505 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Su Lisa T | director | Sale | 4,400 @ $505.57 | $2.2M | −4.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 88,105 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Su Lisa T | director | Sale | 4,200 @ $506.60 | $2.1M | −4.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 83,905 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Su Lisa T | director | Sale | 3,500 @ $509.74 | $1.8M | −4.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 75,011 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Su Lisa T | director | Sale | 3,288 @ $507.75 | $1.7M | −3.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 80,617 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Su Lisa T | director | Sale | 2,100 @ $510.74 | $1.1M | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,033,156 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Su Lisa T | director | Sale | 2,106 @ $508.90 | $1.1M | −2.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 78,511 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Su Lisa T | director | Sale | 2,106 @ $503.72 | $1.1M | −2.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 97,105 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Su Lisa T | director | Sale | 500 @ $510.94 | $255K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 74,511 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Su Lisa T | director | Sale | 400 @ $514.05 | $206K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,032,256 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Su Lisa T | director | Sale | 300 @ $511.39 | $153K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,032,856 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Su Lisa T | director | Sale | 200 @ $513.72 | $103K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 74,211 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Su Lisa T | director | Sale | 200 @ $512.47 | $102K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,032,656 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Su Lisa T | director | Sale | 100 @ $515.55 | $52K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,032,156 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Su Lisa T | director | Sale | 100 @ $512.59 | $51K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 74,411 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Hu Jean X. | director | Sale | 3,831 @ $474.43 | $1.8M | −2.3% of holding | +31.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 165,608 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Hu Jean X. | director | Sale | 3,100 @ $476.53 | $1.5M | −1.9% of holding | +31.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 161,079 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Hu Jean X. | director | Sale | 2,513 @ $472.39 | $1.2M | −1.4% of holding | +31.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 171,766 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Hu Jean X. | director | Sale | 2,327 @ $473.43 | $1.1M | −1.4% of holding | +31.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 169,439 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Hu Jean X. | director | Sale | 1,429 @ $475.70 | $680K | −0.9% of holding | +31.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 164,179 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Hu Jean X. | director | Sale | 900 @ $470.13 | $423K | −0.5% of holding | +31.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 175,079 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Hu Jean X. | director | Sale | 800 @ $471.14 | $377K | −0.5% of holding | +31.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 174,279 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Hu Jean X. | director | Sale | 100 @ $477.84 | $48K | −0.1% of holding | +31.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 160,979 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Norrod Forrest Eugene | director | Sale | 2,589 @ $468.14 | $1.2M | −0.7% of holding | +34.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 373,317 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Norrod Forrest Eugene | director | Sale | 2,312 @ $456.49 | $1.1M | −0.6% of holding | +34.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 384,017 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Norrod Forrest Eugene | director | Sale | 2,125 @ $455.62 | $968K | −0.5% of holding | +34.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 386,329 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Norrod Forrest Eugene | director | Sale | 1,904 @ $457.44 | $871K | −0.5% of holding | +34.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 382,113 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Norrod Forrest Eugene | director | Sale | 1,630 @ $459.68 | $749K | −0.4% of holding | +34.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 380,083 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Norrod Forrest Eugene | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $460.64 | $691K | −0.4% of holding | +34.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 378,583 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Norrod Forrest Eugene | director | Sale | 1,455 @ $465.43 | $677K | −0.4% of holding | +34.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 376,506 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Norrod Forrest Eugene | director | Sale | 1,182 @ $454.18 | $537K | −0.3% of holding | +34.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 388,454 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Norrod Forrest Eugene | director | Sale | 942 @ $453.26 | $427K | −0.2% of holding | +34.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 389,636 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Norrod Forrest Eugene | director | Sale | 600 @ $466.26 | $280K | −0.2% of holding | +34.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 375,906 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Norrod Forrest Eugene | director | Sale | 400 @ $458.26 | $183K | −0.1% of holding | +34.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 381,713 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Norrod Forrest Eugene | director | Sale | 321 @ $464.27 | $149K | −0.1% of holding | +34.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 377,961 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-24 | Norrod Forrest Eugene | director | Sale | 301 @ $462.59 | $139K | −0.1% of holding | +34.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 378,282 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Papermaster Mark D | director | Sale | 9,523 @ $474.35 | $4.5M | −0.7% of holding | +29.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,261,911 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Papermaster Mark D | director | Sale | 6,667 @ $473.47 | $3.2M | −0.5% of holding | +29.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,271,434 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Papermaster Mark D | director | Sale | 6,181 @ $466.60 | $2.9M | −0.5% of holding | +29.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,284,091 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Papermaster Mark D | director | Sale | 2,600 @ $472.36 | $1.2M | −0.2% of holding | +29.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,278,101 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Papermaster Mark D | director | Sale | 2,326 @ $471.44 | $1.1M | −0.2% of holding | +29.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,280,701 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Papermaster Mark D | director | Sale | 664 @ $467.88 | $311K | −0.1% of holding | +29.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,283,427 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Papermaster Mark D | director | Sale | 450 @ $475.19 | $214K | −0.0% of holding | +29.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,261,461 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Papermaster Mark D | director | Sale | 400 @ $469.85 | $188K | −0.0% of holding | +29.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,283,027 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
139 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Norrod Forrest Eugene | director | Option exercise | 7,261 | 380,578 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Norrod Forrest Eugene | director | Option exercise | 7,261 | 7,262 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Su Lisa T | director | Gift | 35,000 | 2,997,156 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Norrod Forrest Eugene | director | Option exercise | 7,261 | 390,578 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | Norrod Forrest Eugene | director | Option exercise | 7,261 | 14,523 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | Papermaster Mark D | director | Gift | 25,052 | 1,290,272 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | RYAN TIMOTHY | director | Award / grant | 548 | 548 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Su Lisa T | director | Withheld for tax | 155,986 | 3,117,156 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Papermaster Mark D | director | Withheld for tax | 46,796 | 1,316,527 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Hu Jean X. | director | Withheld for tax | 38,996 | 177,002 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Norrod Forrest Eugene | director | Withheld for tax | 33,797 | 384,280 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | GUIDO PHILIP | officer | Withheld for tax | 31,197 | 135,740 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | HUYNH JACK M | officer | Withheld for tax | 20,798 | 498,229 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | GRASBY PAUL DARREN | officer | Withheld for tax | 20,702 | 133,693 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Hahn Ava | officer | Withheld for tax | 11,244 | 30,147 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Papermaster Mark D | director | Withheld for tax | 1,203 | 1,315,324 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Hu Jean X. | director | Withheld for tax | 1,023 | 175,979 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | GRASBY PAUL DARREN | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,006 | 132,687 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Norrod Forrest Eugene | director | Withheld for tax | 963 | 383,317 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | GUIDO PHILIP | officer | Withheld for tax | 722 | 135,018 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | HUYNH JACK M | officer | Withheld for tax | 722 | 497,507 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Hahn Ava | officer | Withheld for tax | 531 | 29,616 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | GRASBY PAUL DARREN | officer | Option exercise | 2,140 | 6,417 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Su Lisa T | director | Award / grant | 53,348 | 53,348 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | GRASBY PAUL DARREN | officer | Option exercise | 44,045 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Su Lisa T | director | Award / grant | 17,782 | 17,782 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Su Lisa T | director | Option exercise | 396,405 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Su Lisa T | director | Option exercise | 396,405 | 3,273,142 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Hahn Ava | officer | Award / grant | 3,161 | 3,161 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Hahn Ava | officer | Award / grant | 4,742 | 4,742 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Hahn Ava | officer | Option exercise | 1,070 | 3,208 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Hahn Ava | officer | Option exercise | 22,677 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Hahn Ava | officer | Option exercise | 23,747 | 41,391 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | GUIDO PHILIP | officer | Award / grant | 4,742 | 4,742 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | GUIDO PHILIP | officer | Award / grant | 7,113 | 7,113 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | GUIDO PHILIP | officer | Option exercise | 1,834 | 5,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | GUIDO PHILIP | officer | Option exercise | 79,280 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | GUIDO PHILIP | officer | Option exercise | 81,114 | 166,937 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Hu Jean X. | director | Award / grant | 7,113 | 7,113 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Hu Jean X. | director | Award / grant | 10,669 | 10,669 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $15–50K |
| Dan Newhouse | House | sale | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-30 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-07-02 | 2026-06-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-06-08 | 2026-05-14 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-06-08 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | purchase | 2026-06-03 | 2026-05-05 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | purchase | 2026-05-19 | 2026-04-23 | $1–15K |
| Josh Gottheimer | House | purchase | 2026-05-19 | 2026-04-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-05-08 | 2026-04-14 | $15–50K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-13 | $1–15K |
| Thomas Suozzi | House | sale | 2026-03-17 | 2026-02-18 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.