AMD — TickerCove · TickerCove

AMDAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc.Technology · Semiconductorsas of 2026-08-13

Horizon

Issued 2026-08-13 at $483.01 · now $483.01 (2026-08-13, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, AMD has typically landed between $387.05 and $628.91 — a range of −19.9% to +30.2% from the issuance price $483.01.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,662 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($483.01) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$483.01 · 77% of range

$151.14 low$580.91 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-08-13 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,400 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.8%

90% CI 51.6%–56.0%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.5%

typical move · IQR 24.2%

−19.9%worst (p90)+30.2%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

41 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+28 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

11 buys · 3 sells · 6 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where AMD has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $483.01 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $483.01 (+0.0%)
typical $485.51 (+0.5%)
middle 50% $427–$544.03
90% range $387.05–$628.91

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,662 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-08-13. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2008-10-22	−47.2%	−47.2%	+5.0%
2018-09-27	−45.9%	−45.9%	+0.0%
2008-10-21	−45.8%	−45.8%	+0.0%
3 best
2026-04-09	+92.4%	+0.0%	+92.4%
2026-04-07	+90.2%	+0.0%	+90.2%
2026-04-10	+87.2%	+0.0%	+87.2%

4,662 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iiAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$851.1B

market cap

$3.06

EPS (TTM)

170.6

P/E (TTM)

2026-08-04

next earnings

Revenue$34.6B

'20'25

Net income$4.3B

'20'25

Free cash flow$6.7B

'20'25

Net margin · by yr12.5%

'20'25

ROE · by yr6.9%

'20'25

Debt / equity · by yr0.07

'20'25

Fair value — three views i

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.

DCF (intrinsic)$48.73
Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$104.67
Analyst target · range $260.00–$1,250$600.00
Current price · last close 2026-08-13$483.01

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

+2.1%

n=18

Feb

47%

+3.5%

n=19

Mar

58%

+3.6%

n=19

Apr

58%

+4.7%

n=19

May

63%

+11.0%

n=19

Jun

53%

+0.6%

n=19

Jul

58%

+2.9%

n=19

Aug

53%

+3.1%

n=19

Sep

28%

−1.7%

n=18

Oct

39%

−3.8%

n=18

Nov

61%

+10.3%

n=18

Dec

44%

+4.2%

n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-11	Hahn Ava	officer	Sale	143 @ $474.75	$68K	−0.8% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	17,644	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-15	Papermaster Mark D	officer	Sale	8,695 @ $177.65	$1.5M	−0.5% of holding	−12.2%	+7.7%	1,729,475	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-15	Papermaster Mark D	officer	Sale	7,096 @ $178.43	$1.3M	−0.4% of holding	−12.2%	+7.7%	1,722,379	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-15	Papermaster Mark D	officer	Sale	1,009 @ $179.82	$181K	−0.1% of holding	−12.2%	+7.7%	1,721,370	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

44 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2025-08-15	Su Lisa T	director	Withheld for tax	49,449	3,360,021	Form 4
2025-08-15	Papermaster Mark D	officer	Withheld for tax	16,557	1,714,505	Form 4
2025-08-15	GRASBY PAUL DARREN	officer	Withheld for tax	15,820	143,344	Form 4
2025-08-15	Norrod Forrest Eugene	officer	Withheld for tax	10,596	322,848	Form 4
2025-08-15	Papermaster Mark D	officer	Option exercise	16,800	1,738,170	Form 4
2025-08-15	HUYNH JACK M	officer	Withheld for tax	1,104	436,600	Form 4
2025-08-15	Papermaster Mark D	officer	Option exercise	16,800	50,708	Form 4
2025-08-15	Papermaster Mark D	officer	Option exercise	42,075	0	Form 4
2025-08-15	Papermaster Mark D	officer	Award / grant	24,852	24,852	Form 4
2025-08-15	Papermaster Mark D	officer	Award / grant	36,674	36,674	Form 4
2025-08-15	Papermaster Mark D	officer	Award / grant	12,224	12,224	Form 4
2025-08-15	Norrod Forrest Eugene	officer	Option exercise	26,927	333,444	Form 4
2025-08-15	Norrod Forrest Eugene	officer	Option exercise	26,927	0	Form 4
2025-08-15	Norrod Forrest Eugene	officer	Award / grant	19,881	19,881	Form 4
2025-08-15	Norrod Forrest Eugene	officer	Award / grant	29,339	29,339	Form 4
2025-08-15	Norrod Forrest Eugene	officer	Award / grant	9,779	9,779	Form 4
2025-08-15	HUYNH JACK M	officer	Option exercise	2,804	437,704	Form 4
2025-08-15	HUYNH JACK M	officer	Option exercise	2,804	0	Form 4
2025-08-15	HUYNH JACK M	officer	Award / grant	14,911	14,911	Form 4
2025-08-15	HUYNH JACK M	officer	Award / grant	22,004	22,004	Form 4
2025-08-15	HUYNH JACK M	officer	Award / grant	7,334	7,334	Form 4
2025-08-15	Hahn Ava	officer	Award / grant	8,698	8,698	Form 4
2025-08-15	Hahn Ava	officer	Award / grant	12,836	12,836	Form 4
2025-08-15	GUIDO PHILIP	officer	Award / grant	14,911	14,911	Form 4
2025-08-15	GUIDO PHILIP	officer	Award / grant	22,004	22,004	Form 4
2025-08-15	GUIDO PHILIP	officer	Award / grant	7,334	7,334	Form 4
2025-08-15	GRASBY PAUL DARREN	officer	Option exercise	33,659	159,164	Form 4
2025-08-15	GRASBY PAUL DARREN	officer	Option exercise	33,659	0	Form 4
2025-08-15	GRASBY PAUL DARREN	officer	Award / grant	17,396	17,396	Form 4
2025-08-15	GRASBY PAUL DARREN	officer	Award / grant	25,672	25,672	Form 4
2025-08-15	GRASBY PAUL DARREN	officer	Award / grant	8,557	8,557	Form 4
2025-08-15	Carter Philip Matthew	other	Award / grant	993	993	Form 4
2025-08-15	Carter Philip Matthew	other	Award / grant	2,979	2,979	Form 4
2025-08-15	Hahn Ava	officer	Award / grant	4,278	4,278	Form 4
2025-08-15	Hu Jean X.	director	Award / grant	21,124	21,124	Form 4
2025-08-15	Hu Jean X.	director	Award / grant	31,173	31,173	Form 4
2025-08-15	Hu Jean X.	director	Award / grant	10,391	10,391	Form 4
2025-08-15	Su Lisa T	director	Option exercise	125,663	3,409,470	Form 4
2025-08-15	Su Lisa T	director	Option exercise	125,663	0	Form 4
2025-08-15	Su Lisa T	director	Award / grant	102,516	102,516	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iiDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks

Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+28 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 53.7% vs 53.2% · n=26,833

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +28 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27).

Member	Chamber	Type	Filed	Traded	Size
Alan Armstrong	Senate	purchase	2026-07-21	2026-03-27	$15–50K
Dan Newhouse	House	sale	2026-07-17	2026-07-10	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	purchase	2026-07-06	2026-06-30	$1–15K
Gilbert Cisneros	House	purchase	2026-07-02	2026-06-05	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	purchase	2026-06-09	2026-05-27	$1–15K
Gilbert Cisneros	House	purchase	2026-06-08	2026-05-14	$1–15K
Gilbert Cisneros	House	purchase	2026-06-08	2026-05-15	$1–15K
Josh Gottheimer	House	purchase	2026-06-03	2026-05-05	$1–15K
Josh Gottheimer	House	purchase	2026-05-19	2026-04-23	$1–15K
Josh Gottheimer	House	purchase	2026-05-19	2026-04-27	$1–15K
Ro Khanna	House	purchase	2026-05-11	2026-04-24	$1–15K
Gilbert Cisneros	House	purchase	2026-05-08	2026-04-14	$15–50K
Gilbert Cisneros	House	sale	2026-04-07	2026-03-13	$1–15K
Thomas Suozzi	House	sale	2026-03-17	2026-02-18	$1–15K

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-08-143% elapsed2026-09-11

Logged immutably 2026-08-14; scored automatically on 2026-09-11 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Fair value — three views i

Seasonality · by month i