Issued 2026-09-16 at $41.97 · now $41.97 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AMCR has typically landed between $37.85 and $45.95 — a range of −9.8% to +9.5% from the issuance price $41.97.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,806 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-06-11 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($41.97) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AMCR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $41.97 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $41.97 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $41.91 (-0.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $40.19–$43.63
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $37.85–$45.95
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,806 windows spanning 2019-06-11 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-13 | −40.7% | −40.7% | +1.1% |
| 2020-02-14 | −38.3% | −41.0% | +0.6% |
| 2020-02-11 | −38.2% | −38.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-16 | +45.4% | +0.0% | +54.0% |
| 2020-03-18 | +37.4% | +0.0% | +43.3% |
| 2020-03-17 | +35.8% | +0.0% | +47.0% |
1,806 overlapping windows · 2019-06-11 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$20.6B
market cap
$1.43
EPS (TTM)
31.1
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-13
next earnings
Revenue$15.0B
'20'25
Net income$511M
'20'25
Free cash flow$810M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr3.4%
'20'25
ROE · by yr4.4%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.28
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$78.34
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$34.06
- Analyst target · range $43.00–$54.00$46.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$41.97
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
43%
−0.1%
n=7
Feb
43%
−0.9%
n=7
Mar
43%
−3.2%
n=7
Apr
43%
−0.5%
n=7
May
86%
+5.2%
n=7
Jun
43%
+0.6%
n=7
Jul
88%
+1.7%
n=8
Aug
50%
+0.1%
n=8
Sep
38%
−4.1%
n=8
Oct
29%
−0.6%
n=7
Nov
71%
+5.1%
n=7
Dec
57%
+0.0%
n=7
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-11 | Scherger Stephen R. | director | Purchase | 121,065 @ $8.32 | $1.0M | ownership Δ n/a | +4.1% | −8.5% | 121,065 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | CARTER SUSAN K | director | Sale | 6,058 @ $8.44 | $51K | −7.8% of holding | −0.9% | −15.6% | 71,302 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-03 | Rahman Jill A | director | Sale | 4,148 @ $8.44 | $35K | −4.8% of holding | −0.9% | −15.6% | 82,535 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Rahman Jill A | director | Sale | 6,596 @ $8.48 | $56K | −7.9% of holding | −4.5% | −16.5% | 77,366 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-12 | Long Nicholas T. | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $8.54 | $85K | +18.9% of holding | −0.4% | −19.0% | 62,911 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Wilson Ian | officer | Purchase | 79,000 @ $8.35 | $660K | +23.4% of holding | −2.1% | −14.1% | 416,384 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Konieczny Peter | officer | Purchase | 60,000 @ $8.41 | $505K | +12.6% of holding | −2.1% | −14.1% | 536,643 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Glerum James T Jr. | director | Purchase | 59,808 @ $8.34 | $499K | +5466.9% of holding | −2.1% | −14.1% | 60,902 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Glerum James T Jr. | director | Purchase | 137 @ $8.38 | $1K | +14.3% of holding | −2.1% | −14.1% | 1,094 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | STERRETT STEPHEN E | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $8.55 | $86K | ownership Δ n/a | −4.6% | +12.1% | 10,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Foufopoulos - De Ridder Lucrece | director | Purchase | 14,000 @ $10.31 | $144K | +90.2% of holding | +0.4% | −26.0% | 29,523 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-27 | Agarwal Achal | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $10.10 | $101K | +12.7% of holding | +0.6% | −25.4% | 88,967 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-19 | Agarwal Achal | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $10.10 | $101K | +14.5% of holding | +4.2% | −18.5% | 78,967 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-19 | Agarwal Achal | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $10.09 | $101K | +17.0% of holding | +4.2% | −18.5% | 68,967 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | Agarwal Achal | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $10.10 | $101K | +20.4% of holding | +5.2% | −19.1% | 58,967 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | Agarwal Achal | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $10.09 | $101K | +25.7% of holding | +5.2% | −19.1% | 48,967 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-12 | NAYAR ARUN | director | Purchase | 59,000 @ $9.95 | $587K | +77.4% of holding | +5.8% | −17.5% | 135,191 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-12 | NAYAR ARUN | director | Purchase | 33,000 @ $9.95 | $328K | ownership Δ n/a | +5.8% | −17.5% | 33,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-12 | NAYAR ARUN | director | Purchase | 8,000 @ $9.95 | $80K | ownership Δ n/a | +5.8% | −17.5% | 8,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-10 | Konieczny Peter | officer | Purchase | 100,000 @ $10.05 | $1.0M | +27.8% of holding | +7.7% | −7.0% | 459,395 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
242 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Konieczny Peter | officer | Withheld for tax | 590 | 159,303 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Konieczny Peter | officer | Award / grant | 11,131 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Konieczny Peter | officer | Option exercise | 11,131 | 159,893 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Konieczny Peter | officer | Option exercise | 11,131 | 159,893 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Konieczny Peter | officer | Option exercise | 11,131 | 159,893 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Konieczny Peter | officer | Option exercise | 11,131 | 159,893 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Wilson Ian | officer | Withheld for tax | 514 | 92,157 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Wilson Ian | officer | Option exercise | 5,782 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Wilson Ian | officer | Option exercise | 5,782 | 92,671 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Wilson Ian | officer | Option exercise | 5,782 | 92,671 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Wilson Ian | officer | Option exercise | 5,782 | 92,671 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Wilson Ian | officer | Option exercise | 5,782 | 92,671 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Wilson Ian | officer | Option exercise | 5,616 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Rasin Deborah | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,614 | 17,676 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | SORRELLS JULIE MARIE | officer | Withheld for tax | 350 | 9,194 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Konieczny Peter | officer | Withheld for tax | 517 | 148,762 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Konieczny Peter | officer | Option exercise | 9,753 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | SORRELLS JULIE MARIE | officer | Option exercise | 1,047 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Suarez Gonzalez Susana | officer | Option exercise | 4,554 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Rasin Deborah | officer | Option exercise | 3,643 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Suarez Gonzalez Susana | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,654 | 28,388 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Wilson Ian | officer | Option exercise | 5,616 | 86,889 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Suarez Gonzalez Susana | officer | Option exercise | 4,554 | 30,042 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Konieczny Peter | officer | Option exercise | 9,753 | 149,279 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Rasin Deborah | officer | Option exercise | 3,643 | 19,290 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Wilson Ian | officer | Option exercise | 5,616 | 86,889 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | SORRELLS JULIE MARIE | officer | Option exercise | 1,047 | 9,544 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Rasin Deborah | officer | Option exercise | 3,643 | 19,290 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Konieczny Peter | officer | Option exercise | 9,753 | 149,279 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | SORRELLS JULIE MARIE | officer | Option exercise | 1,047 | 9,544 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Rasin Deborah | officer | Option exercise | 3,643 | 19,290 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Suarez Gonzalez Susana | officer | Option exercise | 4,554 | 30,042 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Konieczny Peter | officer | Option exercise | 9,753 | 149,279 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Wilson Ian | officer | Option exercise | 5,616 | 86,889 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Rasin Deborah | officer | Option exercise | 3,643 | 19,290 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Konieczny Peter | officer | Option exercise | 9,753 | 149,279 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | SORRELLS JULIE MARIE | officer | Option exercise | 1,047 | 9,544 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | Suarez Gonzalez Susana | officer | Option exercise | 4,554 | 30,042 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | SORRELLS JULIE MARIE | officer | Option exercise | 1,047 | 9,544 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | SORRELLS JULIE MARIE | officer | Option exercise | 1,047 | 9,544 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Dan Newhouse | House | purchase | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Thomas H. Kean Jr | House | purchase | 2026-06-18 | 2026-05-14 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Thomas H. Kean Jr | House | purchase | 2026-04-13 | 2026-03-31 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-01-12 | 2025-12-19 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.