AMCAMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.Communication Services · Entertainmentas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.66 · now $2.66 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AMC has typically landed between $1.68 and $3.91 — a range of −36.9% to +47.0% from the issuance price $2.66.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,180 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-12-18 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.66) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where AMC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.66 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$1.68worst · -36.9%$3.91best · +47.0%
  • now $2.66 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.51 (-5.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.15–$2.87
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.68–$3.91
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,180 windows spanning 2013-12-18 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2023-08-11−85.6%−86.3%+0.0%
2023-08-09−85.3%−85.3%+7.3%
2023-08-10−85.3%−85.6%+5.6%
3 best
2021-05-06+511.7%+0.0%+511.7%
2021-05-05+499.8%−1.9%+499.8%
2020-12-29+480.8%−13.5%+480.8%

3,180 overlapping windows · 2013-12-18 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
46%
+34.3%
n=13
Feb
62%
+3.8%
n=13
Mar
54%
−2.6%
n=13
Apr
46%
+4.3%
n=13
May
46%
+13.0%
n=13
Jun
54%
+8.4%
n=13
Jul
62%
+3.9%
n=13
Aug
38%
−6.4%
n=13
Sep
38%
−6.6%
n=13
Oct
33%
−3.8%
n=12
Nov
50%
+1.8%
n=12
Dec
17%
−16.3%
n=12

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$3$12026-05-19: 1 insider purchase, $344K — ARON ADAM M2026-05: 1 open-market purchase, $344K↑ buys↓ salesdirector ARON ADAM M — Purchase on 2026-05-19, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-19ARON ADAM MdirectorPurchase250,000 @ $1.38$344K+11.4% of holding+106.1%not yet — horizon still open2,437,020Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

142 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-02-27Goodman Sean D.directorAward / grant369,940660,637Form 4
2026-02-27ELLIS DANIEL EofficerWithheld for tax78,444236,034Form 4
2026-02-27DENSON-RANDOLPH NIKKOLEofficerAward / grant73,346118,394Form 4
2026-02-27COX CHRIS AofficerAward / grant78,592142,169Form 4
2026-02-27ARON ADAM MdirectorAward / grant1,594,4782,903,419Form 4
2026-02-27ARON ADAM MdirectorWithheld for tax716,3992,187,020Form 4
2026-02-27Goodman Sean D.directorWithheld for tax166,215494,422Form 4
2026-02-27ELLIS DANIEL EofficerAward / grant174,590314,478Form 4
2026-02-27WAY MARKofficerAward / grant157,136285,069Form 4
2026-02-27WAY MARKofficerWithheld for tax73,854211,215Form 4
2026-02-27CHAVARRIA CARLA CdirectorAward / grant139,598282,562Form 4
2026-02-27CHAVARRIA CARLA CdirectorWithheld for tax64,118218,444Form 4
2026-02-27DENSON-RANDOLPH NIKKOLEofficerWithheld for tax41,88176,513Form 4
2026-02-27COPAKEN ELLENofficerAward / grant73,898119,392Form 4
2026-02-27COPAKEN ELLENofficerWithheld for tax35,61783,775Form 4
2026-02-27Gladbach EDWIN FofficerAward / grant26,20642,751Form 4
2026-02-27COX CHRIS AofficerWithheld for tax37,733104,436Form 4
2026-02-27Gladbach EDWIN FofficerWithheld for tax13,42729,324Form 4
2026-02-19Jain SoniadirectorAward / grant96,619149,903Form 4
2026-02-19SUSSMAN ADAM JAYdirectorAward / grant96,619160,658Form 4
2026-02-19Clark Denise M.directorAward / grant96,619155,923Form 4
2026-02-19Glover MarcusdirectorAward / grant96,619137,295Form 4
2026-02-19LADER PHILIPdirectorAward / grant96,619189,163Form 4
2026-02-19SAICH ANTHONY JdirectorAward / grant96,619160,658Form 4
2026-02-19PUTNAM KERITH SHEEHANdirectorAward / grant96,619155,923Form 4
2026-02-19KOCH HOWARD WINCHEL JRdirectorAward / grant96,619157,113Form 4
2026-02-19Locke GarydirectorAward / grant96,619160,658Form 4
2026-01-08WAY MARKofficerOption exercise78,569164,861Form 4
2026-01-08WAY MARKofficerWithheld for tax36,928127,933Form 4
2026-01-08WAY MARKofficerConversion4,2310Form 4
2026-01-08WAY MARKofficerConversion31,57931,579Form 4
2026-01-08WAY MARKofficerConversion42,75985,520Form 4
2026-01-08ELLIS DANIEL EofficerOption exercise87,296183,737Form 4
2026-01-08ELLIS DANIEL EofficerWithheld for tax43,849139,888Form 4
2026-01-08ELLIS DANIEL EofficerConversion4,6980Form 4
2026-01-08ELLIS DANIEL EofficerConversion35,08835,088Form 4
2026-01-08ELLIS DANIEL EofficerConversion47,51095,022Form 4
2026-01-08DENSON-RANDOLPH NIKKOLEofficerOption exercise37,00766,975Form 4
2026-01-08DENSON-RANDOLPH NIKKOLEofficerWithheld for tax21,92745,048Form 4
2026-01-08DENSON-RANDOLPH NIKKOLEofficerConversion1,8490Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.