Issued 2026-09-16 at $59.90 · now $59.90 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AMBQ has typically landed between $45.24 and $88.99 — a range of −24.5% to +48.6% from the issuance price $59.90.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
264 overlapping 1 month windows · 2025-07-30 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($59.90) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AMBQ has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $59.9 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $59.9 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $57.8 (-3.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $49.79–$65.81
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $45.24–$88.99
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 264 windows spanning 2025-07-30 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-06-29 | −32.7% | −32.7% | +3.9% |
| 2026-06-30 | −28.4% | −35.2% | +0.1% |
| 2026-07-01 | −28.1% | −35.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-28 | +138.3% | −0.2% | +139.9% |
| 2026-04-14 | +137.6% | +0.0% | +137.6% |
| 2026-04-24 | +135.5% | −2.1% | +135.5% |
264 overlapping windows · 2025-07-30 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~2 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
100%
+6.6%
n=1
Feb
100%
+1.0%
n=1
Mar
0%
−17.2%
n=1
Apr
100%
+47.5%
n=1
May
100%
+112.5%
n=1
Jun
100%
+10.8%
n=1
Jul
0%
−28.0%
n=1
Aug
0%
−8.9%
n=2
Sep
50%
−11.0%
n=2
Oct
100%
+2.1%
n=1
Nov
0%
−19.8%
n=1
Dec
100%
+16.3%
n=1
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Esaka Fumihide | director | Sale | 9,615 @ $60.55 | $582K | −2.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 460,560 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-15 | Esaka Fumihide | director | Sale | 3,785 @ $59.56 | $225K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 470,175 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-15 | Esaka Fumihide | director | Sale | 100 @ $61.00 | $6K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 460,460 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-14 | Chen Sean Chihhsiang | officer | Sale | 11,000 @ $60.24 | $663K | −8.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 121,675 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Chen Sean Chihhsiang | officer | Sale | 2,600 @ $59.36 | $154K | −1.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 132,675 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Chen Sean Chihhsiang | officer | Sale | 1,400 @ $60.83 | $85K | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 120,275 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Esaka Fumihide | director | Sale | 42,083 @ $63.27 | $2.7M | −8.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 468,377 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | ZHANG KER | director | Sale | 9,100 @ $63.39 | $577K | −30.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 21,266 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Esaka Fumihide | director | Sale | 7,917 @ $63.86 | $506K | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 460,460 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | ZHANG KER | director | Sale | 900 @ $63.95 | $58K | −4.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 20,366 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Chen Sean Chihhsiang | officer | Sale | 12,874 @ $57.09 | $735K | −9.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 122,401 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Chen Sean Chihhsiang | officer | Sale | 2,126 @ $57.68 | $123K | −1.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 120,275 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | ZHANG KER | director | Sale | 185 @ $56.92 | $11K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 30,366 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Esaka Fumihide | director | Sale | 9,575 @ $56.77 | $544K | −2.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 460,460 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-02 | Esaka Fumihide | director | Sale | 1,452 @ $56.15 | $82K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 470,035 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-01 | Esaka Fumihide | director | Sale | 48,973 @ $56.39 | $2.8M | −9.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 460,460 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Esaka Fumihide | director | Sale | 15,600 @ $56.81 | $886K | −3.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 479,860 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Esaka Fumihide | director | Sale | 13,800 @ $57.70 | $796K | −2.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 466,060 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Esaka Fumihide | director | Sale | 5,899 @ $56.87 | $335K | −1.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 458,790 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Esaka Fumihide | director | Sale | 5,600 @ $58.46 | $327K | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 460,460 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Esaka Fumihide | director | Sale | 5,501 @ $57.75 | $318K | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 453,289 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Esaka Fumihide | director | Sale | 2,100 @ $58.52 | $123K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 451,189 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Hanson Scott McLean | director | Sale | 22,590 @ $59.69 | $1.3M | −9.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 226,136 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Hanson Scott McLean | director | Sale | 4,910 @ $60.32 | $296K | −2.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 221,226 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-26 | Hanson Scott McLean | director | Sale | 27,500 @ $59.58 | $1.6M | −11.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 221,226 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Esaka Fumihide | director | Sale | 10,718 @ $64.40 | $690K | −2.3% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 452,689 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Hanson Scott McLean | director | Sale | 5,400 @ $64.41 | $348K | −2.5% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 212,026 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Esaka Fumihide | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $65.26 | $98K | −0.3% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 451,189 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Esaka Fumihide | director | Sale | 1,282 @ $63.29 | $81K | −0.3% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 463,407 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Hanson Scott McLean | director | Sale | 800 @ $65.30 | $52K | −0.4% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 211,226 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-14 | Hanson Scott McLean | director | Sale | 800 @ $63.26 | $51K | −0.4% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 217,426 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Chen Timothy | director | Sale | 24,248 @ $79.72 | $1.9M | −50.3% of holding | +2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,930 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Chen Timothy | director | Sale | 22,414 @ $78.85 | $1.8M | −31.8% of holding | +2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,178 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Chen Timothy | director | Sale | 20,666 @ $80.61 | $1.7M | −86.4% of holding | +2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,264 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Chen Timothy | director | Sale | 3,264 @ $81.57 | $266K | −100.0% of holding | +2.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Chen Sean Chihhsiang | officer | Sale | 32,351 @ $70.53 | $2.3M | −18.4% of holding | +14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 143,609 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Chen Sean Chihhsiang | officer | Sale | 23,334 @ $71.37 | $1.7M | −16.2% of holding | +14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 120,275 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Esaka Fumihide | director | Sale | 60,000 @ $70.02 | $4.2M | −13.3% of holding | +15.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 391,189 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Winzeler Jeffrey G | officer | Sale | 25,918 @ $69.90 | $1.8M | −21.5% of holding | +15.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 94,477 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Hanson Scott McLean | director | Sale | 6,100 @ $69.59 | $425K | −2.9% of holding | +15.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 203,326 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Hanson Scott McLean | director | Sale | 3,900 @ $68.62 | $268K | −1.8% of holding | +15.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 209,426 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Hanson Scott McLean | director | Sale | 200 @ $70.50 | $14K | −0.1% of holding | +15.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 203,126 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Winzeler Jeffrey G | officer | Sale | 82 @ $70.65 | $6K | −0.1% of holding | +15.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 94,395 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Connors Michele Kim | officer | Sale | 660 @ $26.04 | $17K | −1.1% of holding | +28.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 60,705 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Connors Michele Kim | officer | Sale | 151 @ $26.65 | $4K | −0.2% of holding | +28.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 60,554 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-26 | Hanson Scott McLean | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $31.00 | $310K | −7.5% of holding | +2.7% | +82.6% | 122,818 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-26 | TAUTGES JOSEPH A | director | Sale | 7,800 @ $31.00 | $242K | −13.8% of holding | +2.7% | +82.6% | 48,746 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
91 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Esaka Fumihide | director | Option exercise | 13,500 | 473,960 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Esaka Fumihide | director | Option exercise | 13,500 | 58,507 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Chen Sean Chihhsiang | officer | Option exercise | 15,000 | 135,275 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Chen Sean Chihhsiang | officer | Option exercise | 15,000 | 134,423 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Esaka Fumihide | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 510,460 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Esaka Fumihide | director | Option exercise | 30,993 | 144,279 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | Esaka Fumihide | director | Option exercise | 19,007 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Chen Sean Chihhsiang | officer | Option exercise | 15,000 | 135,275 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | ZHANG KER | director | Option exercise | 1,785 | 30,551 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | Chen Sean Chihhsiang | officer | Option exercise | 15,000 | 149,423 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | ZHANG KER | director | Option exercise | 1,785 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Esaka Fumihide | director | Option exercise | 11,027 | 471,487 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Esaka Fumihide | director | Option exercise | 11,027 | 19,007 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Esaka Fumihide | director | Option exercise | 48,973 | 509,433 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Esaka Fumihide | director | Option exercise | 48,973 | 30,034 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Esaka Fumihide | director | Option exercise | 44,271 | 495,460 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Esaka Fumihide | director | Option exercise | 13,500 | 464,689 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Esaka Fumihide | director | Option exercise | 9,271 | 175,272 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Esaka Fumihide | director | Option exercise | 13,500 | 72,007 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Esaka Fumihide | director | Option exercise | 35,000 | 79,007 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Hanson Scott McLean | director | Option exercise | 27,500 | 248,726 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | Hanson Scott McLean | director | Option exercise | 27,500 | 83,558 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Hanson Scott McLean | director | Option exercise | 27,500 | 248,726 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Hanson Scott McLean | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 221,226 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Hanson Scott McLean | director | Option exercise | 27,500 | 111,058 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | Hanson Scott McLean | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 52,279 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Esaka Fumihide | director | Option exercise | 13,500 | 464,689 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Hanson Scott McLean | director | Option exercise | 7,000 | 218,226 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Esaka Fumihide | director | Option exercise | 13,500 | 85,507 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Hanson Scott McLean | director | Option exercise | 7,000 | 62,279 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Chen Timothy | director | Award / grant | 4,957 | 52,575 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | HSIEH Wen Hsuan | director | Award / grant | 4,957 | 4,957 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | Banks Bernard Bennett | director | Award / grant | 4,957 | 4,957 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | ZHANG KER | director | Award / grant | 4,957 | 28,766 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-08 | TAUTGES JOSEPH A | director | Award / grant | 4,957 | 53,703 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Winzeler Jeffrey G | officer | Option exercise | 5,952 | 106,299 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Winzeler Jeffrey G | officer | Option exercise | 5,952 | 104,953 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Esaka Fumihide | director | Option exercise | 45,463 | 436,652 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Chen Sean Chihhsiang | officer | Option exercise | 55,685 | 175,960 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Esaka Fumihide | director | Option exercise | 14,537 | 451,189 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.