Issued 2026-09-16 at $62.77 · now $62.77 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AMBA has typically landed between $47.04 and $81.90 — a range of −25.1% to +30.5% from the issuance price $62.77.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,481 overlapping 1 month windows · 2012-10-10 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($62.77) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AMBA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $62.77 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $62.77 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $62.7 (-0.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $55.07–$70.33
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $47.04–$81.9
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,481 windows spanning 2012-10-10 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-13 | −47.1% | −47.1% | +0.9% |
| 2022-02-10 | −44.8% | −44.8% | +0.0% |
| 2022-02-09 | −43.7% | −44.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2021-08-17 | +70.2% | +0.0% | +70.4% |
| 2021-08-24 | +69.5% | −1.3% | +69.5% |
| 2021-08-23 | +67.6% | +0.0% | +67.6% |
3,481 overlapping windows · 2012-10-10 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~14 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
36%
−6.4%
n=14
Feb
64%
+3.6%
n=14
Mar
29%
−3.3%
n=14
Apr
29%
−2.4%
n=14
May
93%
+7.4%
n=14
Jun
64%
+4.0%
n=14
Jul
57%
+4.0%
n=14
Aug
57%
+1.8%
n=14
Sep
50%
+2.3%
n=14
Oct
46%
−2.0%
n=13
Nov
79%
+16.3%
n=14
Dec
64%
+5.9%
n=14
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Chen Yun-Lung | officer | Sale | 5,958 @ $78.66 | $469K | −9.0% of holding | +7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 60,557 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Wang Feng-Ming | director | Sale | 16,250 @ $90.08 | $1.5M | −2.1% of holding | −2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 773,607 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Ju Chi-Hong | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $88.84 | $888K | −6.0% of holding | −2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 155,924 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | PAISLEY CHRISTOPHER B | director | Sale | 250 @ $62.01 | $16K | −0.6% of holding | +9.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,029 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Wang Feng-Ming | director | Sale | 6,204 @ $67.87 | $421K | −0.8% of holding | −0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 799,857 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Young John Alexander | officer | Sale | 3,186 @ $67.87 | $216K | −2.7% of holding | −0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 114,437 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Lee Chan W | officer | Sale | 2,951 @ $67.87 | $200K | −1.8% of holding | −0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 157,098 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Ju Chi-Hong | officer | Sale | 2,017 @ $67.87 | $137K | −1.2% of holding | −0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 165,924 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Young John Alexander | officer | Sale | 1,847 @ $66.98 | $124K | −1.6% of holding | −0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,590 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Chen Yun-Lung | officer | Sale | 9,856 @ $67.06 | $661K | −12.9% of holding | −0.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 66,515 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Wang Feng-Ming | director | Sale | 17,285 @ $90.38 | $1.6M | −2.1% of holding | −29.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 821,276 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Wang Feng-Ming | director | Sale | 9,150 @ $92.05 | $842K | −1.1% of holding | −29.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 806,061 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Wang Feng-Ming | director | Sale | 6,065 @ $91.23 | $553K | −0.7% of holding | −29.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 815,211 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Young John Alexander | officer | Sale | 400 @ $96.00 | $38K | −0.3% of holding | −29.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 117,623 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-21 | Young John Alexander | officer | Sale | 1,971 @ $60.00 | $118K | −1.6% of holding | +33.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 117,623 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | Wang Feng-Ming | director | Sale | 8,083 @ $54.14 | $438K | −1.0% of holding | −1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 838,561 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-19 | Lee Chan W | officer | Sale | 3,641 @ $54.14 | $197K | −2.2% of holding | −1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 160,049 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-19 | Young John Alexander | officer | Sale | 3,038 @ $54.14 | $164K | −2.5% of holding | −1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 119,594 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-19 | Ju Chi-Hong | officer | Sale | 2,155 @ $54.14 | $117K | −1.3% of holding | −1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 167,941 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-17 | Wang Feng-Ming | director | Sale | 18,976 @ $52.77 | $1.0M | −2.2% of holding | +3.9% | +6.1% | 830,958 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Lee Chan W | officer | Sale | 6,729 @ $52.77 | $355K | −4.1% of holding | +3.9% | +6.1% | 156,370 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Ju Chi-Hong | officer | Sale | 4,729 @ $52.77 | $250K | −2.8% of holding | +3.9% | +6.1% | 164,166 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Young John Alexander | officer | Sale | 4,577 @ $52.77 | $242K | −3.8% of holding | +3.9% | +6.1% | 117,072 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Wang Feng-Ming | director | Sale | 32,460 @ $60.91 | $2.0M | −4.0% of holding | −10.7% | +1.3% | 781,019 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Wang Feng-Ming | director | Sale | 12,040 @ $61.42 | $740K | −1.5% of holding | −10.7% | +1.3% | 768,979 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Wang Feng-Ming | director | Sale | 2,600 @ $59.53 | $155K | −0.3% of holding | −10.7% | +1.3% | 813,479 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Wang Feng-Ming | director | Sale | 1,900 @ $58.77 | $112K | −0.2% of holding | −10.7% | +1.3% | 816,079 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Wang Feng-Ming | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $56.83 | $57K | −0.1% of holding | −10.7% | +1.3% | 817,979 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Ju Chi-Hong | officer | Sale | 7,728 @ $75.58 | $584K | −5.0% of holding | −21.0% | −12.0% | 146,039 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-30 | Ju Chi-Hong | officer | Sale | 3,765 @ $70.32 | $265K | −2.4% of holding | −8.9% | +3.3% | 153,767 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-26 | PAISLEY CHRISTOPHER B | director | Sale | 500 @ $72.18 | $36K | −1.2% of holding | −7.3% | +11.4% | 41,279 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | Young John Alexander | officer | Sale | 3,791 @ $72.96 | $277K | −3.6% of holding | −4.3% | −16.4% | 102,738 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Wang Feng-Ming | director | Sale | 4,950 @ $71.82 | $356K | −0.6% of holding | −7.3% | −10.7% | 783,979 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Young John Alexander | officer | Sale | 2,579 @ $71.82 | $185K | −2.4% of holding | −7.3% | −10.7% | 106,529 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Lee Chan W | officer | Sale | 2,406 @ $71.82 | $173K | −1.9% of holding | −7.3% | −10.7% | 124,566 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Ju Chi-Hong | officer | Sale | 1,342 @ $71.82 | $96K | −0.8% of holding | −7.3% | −10.7% | 157,532 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Schwarting Elizabeth M | director | Sale | 624 @ $72.38 | $45K | −8.5% of holding | −6.7% | −13.7% | 6,690 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-14 | Ju Chi-Hong | officer | Sale | 6,156 @ $80.96 | $498K | −3.7% of holding | +14.5% | −35.9% | 158,874 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-13 | Ju Chi-Hong | officer | Sale | 5,057 @ $81.29 | $411K | −3.0% of holding | +12.5% | −35.6% | 165,030 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-06 | Schwarting Elizabeth M | director | Sale | 2,664 @ $85.38 | $227K | −26.7% of holding | −4.4% | −38.8% | 7,314 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-17 | Wang Feng-Ming | director | Sale | 4,928 @ $79.43 | $391K | −0.6% of holding | +5.0% | −30.6% | 788,929 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-17 | Young John Alexander | officer | Sale | 2,566 @ $79.43 | $204K | −2.3% of holding | +5.0% | −30.6% | 109,108 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-17 | Kohn Leslie | director | Sale | 2,249 @ $79.43 | $179K | −0.2% of holding | +5.0% | −30.6% | 977,428 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-17 | Lee Chan W | officer | Sale | 1,947 @ $79.43 | $155K | −1.5% of holding | +5.0% | −30.6% | 126,972 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-17 | Ju Chi-Hong | officer | Sale | 1,168 @ $79.43 | $93K | −0.7% of holding | +5.0% | −30.6% | 170,087 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Chen Yun-Lung | officer | Sale | 8,492 @ $84.42 | $717K | −12.1% of holding | −2.2% | −39.9% | 61,651 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-25 | PAISLEY CHRISTOPHER B | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $62.58 | $63K | −2.5% of holding | −1.2% | −3.0% | 39,281 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-17 | Wang Feng-Ming | director | Sale | 4,677 @ $52.26 | $244K | −0.6% of holding | +27.1% | +23.1% | 793,634 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-17 | Young John Alexander | officer | Sale | 2,435 @ $52.26 | $127K | −2.1% of holding | +27.1% | +23.1% | 111,451 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-17 | Kohn Leslie | director | Sale | 1,715 @ $52.26 | $90K | −0.2% of holding | +27.1% | +23.1% | 979,677 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-17 | Lee Chan W | officer | Sale | 1,601 @ $52.26 | $84K | −1.2% of holding | +27.1% | +23.1% | 128,696 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-17 | Ju Chi-Hong | officer | Sale | 1,108 @ $52.26 | $58K | −0.6% of holding | +27.1% | +23.1% | 171,032 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-17 | Day Christopher | officer | Sale | 342 @ $52.26 | $18K | −2.2% of holding | +27.1% | +23.1% | 15,099 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-25 | PAISLEY CHRISTOPHER B | director | Sale | 500 @ $55.50 | $28K | −1.2% of holding | −11.3% | +36.3% | 40,281 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-18 | Wang Feng-Ming | director | Sale | 3,194 @ $55.02 | $176K | −0.4% of holding | −12.9% | +29.9% | 798,311 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-18 | Young John Alexander | officer | Sale | 2,103 @ $55.02 | $116K | −1.8% of holding | −12.9% | +29.9% | 113,886 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-18 | Kohn Leslie | director | Sale | 1,584 @ $55.02 | $87K | −0.2% of holding | −12.9% | +29.9% | 981,392 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-18 | Lee Chan W | officer | Sale | 1,468 @ $55.02 | $81K | −1.1% of holding | −12.9% | +29.9% | 130,297 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-18 | Ju Chi-Hong | officer | Sale | 1,034 @ $55.02 | $57K | −0.6% of holding | −12.9% | +29.9% | 172,140 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-18 | Day Christopher | officer | Sale | 479 @ $55.02 | $26K | −3.0% of holding | −12.9% | +29.9% | 15,441 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
77 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Schwarting Elizabeth M | director | Award / grant | 3,151 | 9,841 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | RICHARDSON DAVID JEFFREY | director | Award / grant | 3,151 | 5,649 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | PAISLEY CHRISTOPHER B | director | Award / grant | 3,151 | 44,180 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Hu Chenming | director | Award / grant | 3,151 | 32,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Bryant Gregory M | director | Award / grant | 3,151 | 5,608 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Breithaupt Chantelle Yvette | director | Award / grant | 3,151 | 8,091 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Hon Hsiao-Wuen | director | Award / grant | 3,151 | 33,927 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-17 | Wang Feng-Ming | director | Gift | 10,000 | 789,857 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Young John Alexander | officer | Option exercise | 400 | 118,023 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Young John Alexander | officer | Option exercise | 400 | 24,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Chen Yun-Lung | officer | Award / grant | 2,849 | 76,371 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Wang Feng-Ming | director | Award / grant | 15,686 | 846,644 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Young John Alexander | officer | Award / grant | 5,560 | 122,632 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Lee Chan W | officer | Award / grant | 7,320 | 163,690 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-18 | Ju Chi-Hong | officer | Award / grant | 5,930 | 170,096 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Wang Feng-Ming | director | Option exercise | 27,598 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Ju Chi-Hong | officer | Option exercise | 9,553 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Chen Yun-Lung | officer | Option exercise | 4,651 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Young John Alexander | officer | Option exercise | 3,556 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Lee Chan W | officer | Option exercise | 13,678 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Lee Chan W | officer | Option exercise | 13,678 | 163,099 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Ju Chi-Hong | officer | Option exercise | 9,553 | 168,895 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Wang Feng-Ming | director | Option exercise | 27,598 | 849,934 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Wang Feng-Ming | director | Option exercise | 27,598 | 849,934 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Chen Yun-Lung | officer | Option exercise | 4,651 | 73,522 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Young John Alexander | officer | Option exercise | 3,556 | 121,649 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Ju Chi-Hong | officer | Option exercise | 9,553 | 168,895 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Lee Chan W | officer | Option exercise | 13,678 | 163,099 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Chen Yun-Lung | officer | Option exercise | 4,651 | 73,522 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Young John Alexander | officer | Option exercise | 3,556 | 121,649 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Wang Feng-Ming | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 818,979 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Young John Alexander | officer | Award / grant | 15,201 | 117,939 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Wang Feng-Ming | director | Award / grant | 53,203 | 822,182 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Wang Feng-Ming | director | Option exercise | 50,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Wang Feng-Ming | director | Award / grant | 53,203 | 53,203 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Chen Yun-Lung | officer | Award / grant | 7,220 | 68,871 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Chen Yun-Lung | officer | Award / grant | 7,220 | 7,220 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Ju Chi-Hong | officer | Award / grant | 17,329 | 159,188 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Ju Chi-Hong | officer | Award / grant | 17,329 | 17,329 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Bryant Gregory M | director | Award / grant | 2,457 | 2,457 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.