Issued 2026-09-25 at $485.00 · now $485.00 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, AMAT has typically landed between $406.56 and $593.25 — a range of −16.2% to +22.3% from the issuance price $485.00.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($485.00) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AMAT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $485 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $485 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $495.51 (+2.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $455.05–$535.98
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $406.56–$593.25
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-20 | −42.8% | −42.8% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-19 | −40.4% | −41.9% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −39.9% | −39.9% | +3.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-05-29 | +60.6% | +0.0% | +60.6% |
| 2026-05-28 | +54.5% | +0.0% | +54.5% |
| 2026-05-19 | +51.8% | +0.0% | +51.8% |
4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$-361.49
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$363.94
- Analyst target · range $425.00–$900.00$582.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$485.00
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | BRUNER JUDY | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $465.00 | $465K | −3.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 25,544 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Hill Brice | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $479.25 | $3.6M | −5.5% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 128,613 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | DICKERSON GARY E | director | Sale | 19,970 @ $735.22 | $14.7M | −1.2% of holding | −29.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,599,873 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-30 | DICKERSON GARY E | director | Sale | 30 @ $736.05 | $22K | −0.0% of holding | −29.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,599,843 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | DICKERSON GARY E | director | Sale | 50,332 @ $700.21 | $35.2M | −3.0% of holding | −35.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,627,832 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | DICKERSON GARY E | director | Sale | 7,989 @ $701.33 | $5.6M | −0.5% of holding | −35.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,619,843 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Raja Prabu G. | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $633.53 | $6.3M | −2.8% of holding | −8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 346,642 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | DICKERSON GARY E | director | Sale | 15,755 @ $590.52 | $9.3M | −0.9% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,751,136 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | DICKERSON GARY E | director | Sale | 13,505 @ $596.82 | $8.1M | −0.8% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,702,884 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | DICKERSON GARY E | director | Sale | 10,411 @ $592.18 | $6.2M | −0.6% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,731,539 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Iannotti Thomas J | director | Sale | 9,250 @ $599.77 | $5.5M | −18.6% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 40,559 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | DICKERSON GARY E | director | Sale | 9,186 @ $591.40 | $5.4M | −0.5% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,741,950 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | DICKERSON GARY E | director | Sale | 5,933 @ $595.59 | $3.5M | −0.3% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,716,389 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Nalamasu Omkaram | officer | Sale | 4,782 @ $591.53 | $2.8M | −2.9% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 162,882 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Nalamasu Omkaram | officer | Sale | 4,726 @ $593.58 | $2.8M | −2.9% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 155,744 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | DICKERSON GARY E | director | Sale | 4,682 @ $593.51 | $2.8M | −0.3% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,726,857 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | DICKERSON GARY E | director | Sale | 4,535 @ $594.74 | $2.7M | −0.3% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,722,322 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | DICKERSON GARY E | director | Sale | 4,457 @ $597.45 | $2.7M | −0.3% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,698,427 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Nalamasu Omkaram | officer | Sale | 4,028 @ $595.50 | $2.4M | −2.6% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 150,591 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Nalamasu Omkaram | officer | Sale | 3,675 @ $596.52 | $2.2M | −2.4% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 146,916 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Nalamasu Omkaram | officer | Sale | 3,515 @ $590.48 | $2.1M | −2.1% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 167,664 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | DICKERSON GARY E | director | Sale | 2,426 @ $598.56 | $1.5M | −0.1% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,696,001 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Nalamasu Omkaram | officer | Sale | 2,412 @ $592.40 | $1.4M | −1.5% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 160,470 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Nalamasu Omkaram | officer | Sale | 1,125 @ $594.85 | $669K | −0.7% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 154,619 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | DICKERSON GARY E | director | Sale | 837 @ $599.35 | $502K | −0.0% of holding | −6.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,695,164 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | DICKERSON GARY E | director | Sale | 11,273 @ $590.03 | $6.7M | −0.6% of holding | −4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,766,891 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Deane Timothy M | officer | Sale | 8,621 @ $590.76 | $5.1M | −6.0% of holding | −4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 134,631 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Nalamasu Omkaram | officer | Sale | 6,938 @ $590.20 | $4.1M | −3.8% of holding | −4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 174,978 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Nalamasu Omkaram | officer | Sale | 3,799 @ $595.14 | $2.3M | −2.2% of holding | −4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 171,179 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Raja Prabu G. | officer | Sale | 25,309 @ $504.66 | $12.8M | −6.2% of holding | +11.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 381,333 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Raja Prabu G. | officer | Sale | 15,083 @ $505.51 | $7.6M | −4.0% of holding | +11.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 366,250 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Raja Prabu G. | officer | Sale | 7,805 @ $506.46 | $4.0M | −2.1% of holding | +11.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 358,445 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Raja Prabu G. | officer | Sale | 1,803 @ $507.06 | $914K | −0.5% of holding | +11.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 356,642 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Hill Brice | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $498.86 | $1.2M | −1.8% of holding | +18.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 136,113 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | BRUNER JUDY | director | Sale | 1,128 @ $450.00 | $508K | −4.1% of holding | +48.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 26,544 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Sanders Adam | officer | Sale | 268 @ $434.22 | $116K | −5.9% of holding | +37.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,280 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-25 | BRUNER JUDY | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $391.71 | $979K | −8.7% of holding | −7.6% | +10.5% | 26,089 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-24 | Sanders Adam | officer | Sale | 534 @ $379.16 | $202K | −10.4% of holding | +1.9% | +15.2% | 4,625 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-23 | BRUNER JUDY | director | Sale | 2,458 @ $376.49 | $925K | −7.5% of holding | +4.1% | +17.3% | 30,100 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-23 | BRUNER JUDY | director | Sale | 1,511 @ $377.89 | $571K | −5.0% of holding | +4.1% | +17.3% | 28,589 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Hill Brice | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $361.21 | $1.8M | −3.5% of holding | +0.6% | +30.4% | 138,565 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Sanders Adam | officer | Sale | 609 @ $255.53 | $156K | −12.1% of holding | +0.3% | +85.6% | 4,413 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Little Teri A. | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $238.24 | $953K | −4.5% of holding | +5.4% | +73.4% | 84,351 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Little Teri A. | officer | Sale | 4,000 @ $234.08 | $936K | −4.3% of holding | +6.2% | +71.4% | 88,351 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-24 | Sanders Adam | officer | Sale | 562 @ $178.60 | $100K | −9.6% of holding | −0.1% | +30.9% | 5,300 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-03 | DICKERSON GARY E | director | Purchase | 48,581 @ $137.29 | $6.7M | +2.9% of holding | +9.1% | +36.0% | 1,714,639 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-03 | DICKERSON GARY E | director | Purchase | 1,419 @ $137.70 | $195K | +0.1% of holding | +9.1% | +36.0% | 1,716,058 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | Sanders Adam | officer | Sale | 450 @ $144.83 | $65K | −6.9% of holding | +2.7% | +30.5% | 6,077 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-24 | Sanders Adam | officer | Sale | 271 @ $172.72 | $47K | −4.0% of holding | −5.5% | −11.6% | 6,479 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-06-21 | Iannotti Thomas J | director | Sale | 9,827 @ $236.65 | $2.3M | −16.7% of holding | −8.4% | −39.1% | 49,185 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-06-18 | DICKERSON GARY E | director | Sale | 376,015 @ $246.41 | $92.7M | −19.4% of holding | −15.6% | −41.8% | 1,566,254 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-06-18 | Raja Prabu G. | officer | Sale | 50,000 @ $249.17 | $12.5M | −9.8% of holding | −15.6% | −41.8% | 458,417 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-06-18 | DICKERSON GARY E | director | Sale | 23,985 @ $247.04 | $5.9M | −1.5% of holding | −15.6% | −41.8% | 1,542,269 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-06-07 | Little Teri A. | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $221.62 | $554K | −3.2% of holding | +9.5% | −36.2% | 76,212 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-05-31 | Little Teri A. | officer | Sale | 7,500 @ $213.02 | $1.6M | −8.7% of holding | +7.5% | −33.4% | 78,712 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-05-28 | Hill Brice | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $222.34 | $4.4M | −15.6% of holding | +1.6% | −34.3% | 108,356 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
114 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Palkhiwala Akash J. | director | Award / grant | 279 | 279 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Sanders Adam | officer | Withheld for tax | 125 | 4,155 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | DICKERSON GARY E | director | Gift | 17,000 | 1,678,164 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-16 | Iannotti Thomas J | director | Gift | 750 | 39,809 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-15 | Deane Timothy M | officer | Gift | 1,545 | 133,086 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | DE GEUS AART | director | Gift | 17,855 | 93,928 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Sanders Adam | officer | Withheld for tax | 125 | 4,548 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | ANDERSON JAMES ROBERT | director | Award / grant | 741 | 1,547 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | DE GEUS AART | director | Award / grant | 741 | 111,783 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | MCGREGOR SCOTT A | director | Award / grant | 741 | 24,577 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | MARCH KEVIN P | director | Award / grant | 741 | 2,324 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Iannotti Thomas J | director | Award / grant | 741 | 51,309 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Karsner Alexander | director | Award / grant | 741 | 16,849 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | BRUNER JUDY | director | Award / grant | 741 | 741 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | Borkar Rani | director | Award / grant | 741 | 741 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-12 | CHEN XUN | director | Award / grant | 741 | 45,970 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Deane Timothy M | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,891 | 143,204 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Sanders Adam | officer | Withheld for tax | 324 | 5,159 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-31 | CHEN XUN | director | Award / grant | 187 | 45,229 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | DICKERSON GARY E | director | Withheld for tax | 130,843 | 1,778,116 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Raja Prabu G. | officer | Withheld for tax | 33,406 | 169,328 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Hill Brice | director | Withheld for tax | 28,062 | 143,565 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Nalamasu Omkaram | officer | Withheld for tax | 20,307 | 181,868 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Deane Timothy M | officer | Withheld for tax | 16,465 | 145,095 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-19 | Little Teri A. | officer | Withheld for tax | 15,472 | 91,949 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-12 | Raja Prabu G. | officer | Gift | 50 | 202,734 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | DICKERSON GARY E | director | Award / grant | 27,304 | 1,908,959 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Sanders Adam | officer | Award / grant | 1,070 | 5,483 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Nalamasu Omkaram | officer | Award / grant | 9,534 | 202,175 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Nalamasu Omkaram | officer | Award / grant | 9,734 | 183,107 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Nalamasu Omkaram | officer | Award / grant | 9,534 | 192,641 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Little Teri A. | officer | Award / grant | 7,334 | 91,685 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Little Teri A. | officer | Award / grant | 7,868 | 99,553 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Little Teri A. | officer | Award / grant | 7,868 | 107,421 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Hill Brice | director | Award / grant | 13,884 | 157,743 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Hill Brice | director | Award / grant | 13,884 | 171,627 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Hill Brice | director | Award / grant | 13,334 | 143,859 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Deane Timothy M | officer | Award / grant | 7,467 | 141,196 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Deane Timothy M | officer | Award / grant | 10,182 | 151,378 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-11 | Deane Timothy M | officer | Award / grant | 10,182 | 161,560 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $15–50K |
| Dan Newhouse | House | sale | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-16 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-10 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-19 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $15–50K |
| John Boozman | Senate | sale | 2026-03-06 | 2026-02-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Markwayne Mullin | Senate | purchase | 2026-01-16 | 2025-12-29 | $15–50K |
| Dan Newhouse | House | purchase | 2025-09-17 | 2025-08-18 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-09-09 | 2025-08-19 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-09-09 | 2025-08-19 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-09-09 | 2025-08-26 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.