Issued 2026-09-16 at $46.62 · now $46.62 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, AMAL has typically landed between $41.20 and $55.29 — a range of −11.6% to +18.6% from the issuance price $46.62.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,023 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-06-13 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($46.62) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where AMAL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $46.62 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $46.62 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $47.49 (+1.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $44.42–$50.57
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $41.2–$55.29
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,023 windows spanning 2018-06-13 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −55.3% | −55.3% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −50.8% | −50.8% | +2.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −50.7% | −51.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-05-06 | +36.8% | −6.8% | +36.8% |
| 2021-02-01 | +34.6% | +0.0% | +34.6% |
| 2018-06-13 | +33.6% | +0.0% | +33.6% |
2,023 overlapping windows · 2018-06-13 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+1.6%
n=8
Feb
38%
−0.3%
n=8
Mar
38%
−9.5%
n=8
Apr
38%
−0.0%
n=8
May
75%
+3.7%
n=8
Jun
75%
+5.1%
n=8
Jul
50%
+5.7%
n=8
Aug
50%
−1.5%
n=8
Sep
33%
−1.7%
n=9
Oct
100%
+6.2%
n=8
Nov
88%
+9.0%
n=8
Dec
50%
+2.2%
n=8
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Workers United | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 95,872 @ $47.89 | $4.6M | −6.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,380,806 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Western States Regional Joint Board, Workers United | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 95,872 @ $47.89 | $4.6M | −6.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,380,806 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Western States Regional Joint Board, Workers United | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 82,412 @ $47.69 | $3.9M | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,906,315 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Workers United | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 82,412 @ $47.69 | $3.9M | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,906,315 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Western States Regional Joint Board, Workers United | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 50,000 @ $47.98 | $2.4M | −11.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 373,022 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Workers United | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 50,000 @ $47.98 | $2.4M | −11.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 373,022 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Western States Regional Joint Board, Workers United | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 154,128 @ $47.88 | $7.4M | −9.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,476,678 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Workers United | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 154,128 @ $47.88 | $7.4M | −9.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,476,678 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Workers United | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 80,000 @ $47.88 | $3.8M | −16.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 399,567 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-11 | Western States Regional Joint Board, Workers United | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 80,000 @ $47.88 | $3.8M | −16.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 399,567 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Darby Jason | officer | Sale | 19,995 @ $48.10 | $962K | −27.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 53,851 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Romney Edgar Jr | officer | Sale | 5,992 @ $47.46 | $284K | −21.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 22,393 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Western States Regional Joint Board, Workers United | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 79,649 @ $47.91 | $3.8M | −40.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 119,133 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Workers United | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 79,649 @ $47.91 | $3.8M | −40.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 119,133 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Brown Sam D. | officer | Sale | 735 @ $47.61 | $35K | −2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 25,874 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Brown Sam D. | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $48.42 | $1.5M | −53.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 26,609 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Western States Regional Joint Board, Workers United | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 29,892 @ $48.52 | $1.5M | −13.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 198,782 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-08 | Workers United | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 29,892 @ $48.52 | $1.5M | −13.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 198,782 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-08 | Western States Regional Joint Board, Workers United | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 13,018 @ $48.65 | $633K | −4.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 302,518 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-08 | Workers United | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 13,018 @ $48.65 | $633K | −4.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 302,518 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-08 | Tenner Mandy | officer | Sale | 2,920 @ $48.73 | $142K | −15.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 15,472 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Western States Regional Joint Board, Workers United | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 45,801 @ $49.23 | $2.3M | −16.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 228,674 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Workers United | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 45,801 @ $49.23 | $2.3M | −16.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 228,674 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Western States Regional Joint Board, Workers United | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 22,982 @ $49.14 | $1.1M | −6.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 315,536 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Workers United | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 22,982 @ $49.14 | $1.1M | −6.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 315,536 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Workers United | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 44,658 @ $49.43 | $2.2M | −14.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 274,475 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Western States Regional Joint Board, Workers United | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 44,658 @ $49.43 | $2.2M | −14.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 274,475 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Western States Regional Joint Board, Workers United | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 44,244 @ $48.19 | $2.1M | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,988,727 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-02 | Workers United | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 44,244 @ $48.19 | $2.1M | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 6,988,727 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-02 | Darby Jason | officer | Sale | 1 @ $48.20 | $66 | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 73,846 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Western States Regional Joint Board, Workers United | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 15,000 @ $47.28 | $709K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,032,971 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Workers United | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 15,000 @ $47.28 | $709K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,032,971 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Brown Sam D. | officer | Sale | 4 | — | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 56,609 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Brown Sam D. | officer | Sale | 4 | — | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 56,609 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Brown Sam D. | officer | Sale | 4 | — | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 56,609 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Brown Sam D. | officer | Sale | 4 | — | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 56,609 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Western States Regional Joint Board, Workers United | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 73,535 @ $48.12 | $3.5M | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,047,971 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Workers United | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 73,535 @ $48.12 | $3.5M | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,047,971 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Mark Finser | director | Sale | 800 @ $49.85 | $40K | −4.0% of holding | −1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,433 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Wells Royce A. | director | Sale | 787 @ $50.00 | $39K | −22.6% of holding | −4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,694 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | Bruce Maryann | director | Sale | 2,138 @ $49.55 | $106K | −10.7% of holding | −4.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,804 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Darby Jason | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $43.25 | $108K | −3.1% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 79,343 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Darby Jason | officer | Sale | 250 @ $43.75 | $11K | −0.3% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 82,093 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Darby Jason | officer | Sale | 250 @ $43.33 | $11K | −0.3% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 81,843 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Bruce Maryann | director | Sale | 2,089 @ $41.39 | $86K | −9.5% of holding | +2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,942 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | VELUSWAMY LESLIE | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $43.51 | $109K | −15.0% of holding | +4.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 14,215 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | Searby Sean | officer | Sale | 748 @ $40.02 | $30K | −3.2% of holding | −7.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,307 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-07 | Tenner Mandy | officer | Sale | 747 @ $40.02 | $30K | −3.7% of holding | −7.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,706 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Searby Sean | officer | Sale | 4,948 @ $39.42 | $195K | −17.7% of holding | −4.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,055 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Tenner Mandy | officer | Sale | 776 @ $37.88 | $29K | −3.6% of holding | +10.3% | +13.5% | 20,751 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Graham Tyrone | officer | Sale | 501 @ $38.88 | $19K | −3.1% of holding | +4.7% | +11.6% | 15,539 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Tenner Mandy | officer | Sale | 2,029 @ $38.50 | $78K | −9.6% of holding | +7.0% | +14.7% | 19,084 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-24 | Tenner Mandy | officer | Sale | 607 @ $38.63 | $23K | −2.8% of holding | +4.1% | +14.3% | 21,113 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-20 | Graham Tyrone | officer | Sale | 2,285 @ $39.91 | $91K | −14.5% of holding | −0.9% | +9.8% | 13,443 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Tenner Mandy | officer | Sale | 1,360 @ $40.44 | $55K | −5.9% of holding | −1.3% | +11.4% | 21,720 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-21 | Brown Sam D. | officer | Sale | 5,151 @ $35.50 | $183K | −8.8% of holding | +12.2% | +27.9% | 53,232 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Tenner Mandy | officer | Sale | 3,425 @ $27.76 | $95K | −14.1% of holding | +14.4% | +35.7% | 20,846 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | Fox Lynne P. | director | Sale | 8,949 @ $27.34 | $245K | −28.7% of holding | +11.1% | +47.1% | 22,276 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | Romney Edgar | director | Sale | 6,697 @ $27.34 | $183K | −28.5% of holding | +11.1% | +47.1% | 16,763 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | Kelly Julie | director | Sale | 6,697 @ $27.34 | $183K | −28.5% of holding | +11.1% | +47.1% | 16,763 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
229 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Darby Jason | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,504 | 73,847 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Brown Sam D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,192 | 56,613 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Searby Sean | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,532 | 20,780 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Tenner Mandy | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,338 | 18,392 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | SALOUTOS STEVEN | director | Award / grant | 1,623 | 3,481 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Stoll Scott | director | Award / grant | 1,623 | 5,694 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Jackson Darrell B. | director | Award / grant | 1,623 | 11,852 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Kelly Julie | director | Award / grant | 1,623 | 20,697 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Mark Finser | director | Award / grant | 1,623 | 20,233 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Fox Lynne P. | director | Award / grant | 1,623 | 26,467 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Miller Meredith | director | Award / grant | 1,623 | 9,105 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Romney Edgar | director | Award / grant | 1,623 | 20,697 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Wells Royce A. | director | Award / grant | 1,623 | 3,481 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Bruce Maryann | director | Award / grant | 1,623 | 22,031 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Ross Julieta | director | Award / grant | 1,623 | 5,694 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Lilek JoAnn S | director | Award / grant | 1,623 | 13,990 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Brown Priscilla | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,020 | 311,587 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Darby Jason | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,797 | 82,333 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Brown Sam D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 839 | 57,993 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Lanning Margaret Matilda | officer | Withheld for tax | 340 | 17,016 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Romney Edgar Jr | officer | Withheld for tax | 340 | 28,326 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Graham Tyrone | officer | Withheld for tax | 332 | 18,659 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Tenner Mandy | officer | Withheld for tax | 331 | 20,420 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Searby Sean | officer | Withheld for tax | 330 | 28,003 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Graham Tyrone | officer | Award / grant | 3,452 | 18,991 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Brown Priscilla | officer | Award / grant | 19,262 | 316,607 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Brown Priscilla | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,016 | 277,392 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Darby Jason | officer | Withheld for tax | 807 | 78,427 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Brown Sam D. | officer | Withheld for tax | 686 | 54,298 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Graham Tyrone | officer | Withheld for tax | 390 | 13,078 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Searby Sean | officer | Withheld for tax | 367 | 25,254 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Tenner Mandy | officer | Withheld for tax | 343 | 18,747 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Lanning Margaret Matilda | officer | Withheld for tax | 315 | 15,226 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | VELUSWAMY LESLIE | officer | Withheld for tax | 281 | 13,727 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Romney Edgar Jr | officer | Withheld for tax | 183 | 25,353 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | VELUSWAMY LESLIE | officer | Award / grant | 2,988 | 16,715 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Searby Sean | officer | Award / grant | 3,079 | 28,333 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Romney Edgar Jr | officer | Award / grant | 3,313 | 28,666 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Brown Priscilla | officer | Award / grant | 19,953 | 297,345 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Graham Tyrone | officer | Award / grant | 2,962 | 16,040 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.