ALXOALX Oncology Holdings Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.76 · now $1.76 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ALXO has typically landed between $1.12 and $2.64 — a range of −36.2% to +49.8% from the issuance price $1.76.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,528 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-07-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.76) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ALXO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.76 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$1.12worst · -36.2%$2.64best · +49.8%
  • now $1.76 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.64 (-7.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.29–$1.98
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.12–$2.64
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,528 windows spanning 2020-07-17 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2024-07-16−68.3%−69.0%+0.0%
2024-07-15−67.0%−68.5%+1.6%
2024-07-11−66.1%−66.6%+5.6%
3 best
2020-11-10+135.4%+0.0%+135.4%
2025-07-24+116.7%−4.1%+116.7%
2025-07-25+109.0%−1.5%+122.3%

1,528 overlapping windows · 2020-07-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
17%
−2.2%
n=6
Feb
67%
−2.6%
n=6
Mar
0%
−19.8%
n=6
Apr
33%
+2.7%
n=6
May
33%
−12.2%
n=6
Jun
50%
−5.7%
n=6
Jul
50%
+3.0%
n=6
Aug
57%
+14.5%
n=7
Sep
43%
+1.6%
n=7
Oct
50%
+3.4%
n=6
Nov
50%
+7.5%
n=6
Dec
67%
+10.9%
n=6

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$3$12026-08-17: 2 insider sales, $5K — Lettmann Jason, Pinto Shelly2026-07-01: 1 insider sale, $3K — Pinto Shelly2026-03-19: 2 insider sales, $29K — Lettmann Jason, Pinto Shelly2026-02-18: 1 insider sale, $1K — Pinto Shelly2026-02-02: 1 insider purchase, $5.0M — GOODMAN COREY S2026-01-06: 1 insider sale, $4K — Pinto Shelly2025-09-17: 1 insider purchase, $77K — Lettmann Jason2025-09-16: 1 insider purchase, $22K — Lettmann Jason2025-08-18: 1 insider purchase, $58K — Shantharam Harish2025-08-15: 2 insider sales, $2K — Lettmann Jason, Pinto Shelly2025-08: 1 open-market purchase, $58K2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $2K2025-09: 2 open-market purchases, $99K2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $4K2026-02: 1 open-market purchase, $5.0M2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $1K2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $29K2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $3K2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $5K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Lettmann Jason — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Pinto Shelly — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Pinto Shelly — Sale on 2026-07-01, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Lettmann Jason — Sale on 2026-03-19, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Pinto Shelly — Sale on 2026-03-19, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Pinto Shelly — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector GOODMAN COREY S — Purchase on 2026-02-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Pinto Shelly — Sale on 2026-01-06, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Lettmann Jason — Purchase on 2025-09-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Lettmann Jason — Purchase on 2025-09-16, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Shantharam Harish — Purchase on 2025-08-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Lettmann Jason — Sale on 2025-08-15, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Pinto Shelly — Sale on 2025-08-15, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-17Lettmann JasondirectorSale2,230 @ $1.93$4K−0.8% of holding−8.3%not yet — horizon still open294,379Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17Pinto ShellyofficerSale573 @ $1.93$1K−0.6% of holding−8.3%not yet — horizon still open87,828Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-01Pinto ShellyofficerSale1,404 @ $2.04$3K−1.6% of holding−6.0%not yet — horizon still open88,401Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-03-19Lettmann JasondirectorSale12,311 @ $2.17$27K−4.0% of holding−27.8%not yet — horizon still open293,609Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-19Pinto ShellyofficerSale903 @ $2.17$2K−1.0% of holding−27.8%not yet — horizon still open86,805Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-18Pinto ShellyofficerSale565 @ $2.27$1K−0.6% of holding−1.7%−23.9%87,708Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-02GOODMAN COREY SdirectorPurchase3,184,713 @ $1.57$5.0M+60.5% of holding+31.8%+5.8%8,453,038Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-06Pinto ShellyofficerSale3,925 @ $1.11$4K−4.3% of holding+92.8%+81.5%88,273Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-17Lettmann JasondirectorPurchase71,163 @ $1.08$77K+30.4% of holding+56.6%+107.9%305,121Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-16Lettmann JasondirectorPurchase21,070 @ $1.07$22K+9.9% of holding+52.6%+98.3%233,958Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-18Shantharam HarishofficerPurchase75,000 @ $0.78$58Kownership Δ n/a+5.7%+131.7%75,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-15Lettmann JasondirectorSale2,382 @ $0.64$2K−1.1% of holding+65.0%+245.6%212,888Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-15Pinto ShellyofficerSale611 @ $0.64$391−0.7% of holding+65.0%+245.6%89,198Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-07Pinto ShellyofficerSale2,011 @ $0.45$905−2.3% of holding+47.7%+140.8%86,809Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-30Pinto ShellyofficerSale1,532 @ $0.43$659−1.7% of holding+41.1%+191.6%88,820Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-19Lettmann JasondirectorSale2,159 @ $1.15$2K−1.3% of holding−29.4%−34.8%170,270Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-19Pons JaumeofficerSale1,326 @ $1.15$2K−0.2% of holding−29.4%−34.8%579,388Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-19Pinto ShellyofficerSale550 @ $1.15$633−0.6% of holding−29.4%−34.8%87,352Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-06Pinto ShellyofficerSale2,221 @ $1.80$4K−2.5% of holding−34.8%−78.0%87,902Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-30Pons JaumeofficerSale10,796 @ $1.58$17K−1.8% of holding−14.4%−79.2%580,714Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-12-30Pinto ShellyofficerSale1,426 @ $1.58$2K−1.6% of holding−14.4%−79.2%90,123Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

34 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-04-16Knight Jeff E.officerAward / grant800,000800,000Form 4
2026-04-16Klencke BarbaradirectorAward / grant100,000100,000Form 4
2026-03-03Klencke BarbaradirectorAward / grant700,000700,000Form 4
2026-02-17Lettmann JasondirectorWithheld for tax2,201305,920Form 4
2026-01-26Pinto ShellyofficerAward / grant192,000192,000Form 4
2026-01-26Shantharam HarishofficerAward / grant303,000303,000Form 4
2026-01-26Lettmann JasondirectorAward / grant912,000912,000Form 4
2026-01-20Takimoto Chris HdirectorAward / grant40,40040,400Form 4
2026-01-20GOODMAN COREY SdirectorAward / grant40,40040,400Form 4
2026-01-20Curran Daniel J.directorAward / grant16,83316,833Form 4
2026-01-20Garland J. ScottdirectorAward / grant40,40040,400Form 4
2026-01-20Sandler Alan B.directorAward / grant10,10010,100Form 4
2026-01-20Hemrajani RekhadirectorAward / grant40,40040,400Form 4
2025-10-14Shantharam HarishofficerAward / grant198,750198,750Form 4
2025-10-14Pinto ShellyofficerAward / grant140,000140,000Form 4
2025-10-14Lettmann JasondirectorAward / grant597,500597,500Form 4
2025-09-17Klencke BarbaradirectorAward / grant300,000300,000Form 4
2025-08-12Curran Daniel J.directorAward / grant40,40040,400Form 4
2025-04-11Pinto ShellyofficerAward / grant90,00090,000Form 4
2025-04-11Lettmann JasondirectorAward / grant125,000125,000Form 4
2025-04-11Shantharam HarishofficerAward / grant125,000125,000Form 4
2025-04-11Sandler Alan B.directorAward / grant125,000125,000Form 4
2025-03-14Lettmann JasondirectorAward / grant42,000212,270Form 4
2025-03-14Pinto ShellyofficerAward / grant3,00090,352Form 4
2025-01-21Pons JaumeofficerAward / grant50,00050,000Form 4
2025-01-21Lettmann JasondirectorAward / grant478,000478,000Form 4
2025-01-21Sandler Alan B.directorAward / grant100,000100,000Form 4
2025-01-21Pinto ShellyofficerAward / grant112,000112,000Form 4
2025-01-21Garland J. ScottdirectorAward / grant40,40040,400Form 4
2025-01-21Hemrajani RekhadirectorAward / grant40,40040,400Form 4
2025-01-21Shantharam HarishofficerAward / grant600,000600,000Form 4
2025-01-21Klencke BarbaradirectorAward / grant40,40040,400Form 4
2025-01-21Takimoto Chris HdirectorAward / grant40,40040,400Form 4
2025-01-21GOODMAN COREY SdirectorAward / grant40,40040,400Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.