ALVAutoliv, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Auto - Partsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $115.87 · now $115.87 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ALV has typically landed between $102.09 and $131.95 — a range of −11.9% to +13.9% from the issuance price $115.87.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($115.87) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ALV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $115.87 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$102.09worst · -11.9%$131.95best · +13.9%
  • now $115.87 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $116.9 (+0.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $110.89–$122.9
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $102.09–$131.95
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-20−46.6%−46.6%+0.0%
2008-09-26−45.6%−45.6%+0.0%
2020-02-18−45.5%−45.5%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-06+82.8%+0.0%+86.2%
2009-03-05+78.9%−3.9%+78.9%
2009-03-09+71.0%+0.0%+83.7%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
40%
+0.8%
n=20
Feb
55%
−1.2%
n=20
Mar
65%
+0.2%
n=20
Apr
70%
+6.0%
n=20
May
70%
+2.3%
n=20
Jun
40%
−2.9%
n=20
Jul
50%
+2.3%
n=20
Aug
40%
−1.5%
n=20
Sep
50%
+0.2%
n=20
Oct
50%
+1.0%
n=20
Nov
85%
+5.0%
n=20
Dec
65%
+1.5%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$132$1002026-06-12: 1 insider sale, $2.5M — Carlson Jan2026-02-26: 1 insider sale, $999K — Kortuem Franz-Josef2026-02-25: 1 insider sale, $194K — Jarlegren Magnus2026-02-24: 5 insider sales, $1.7M — Bratt Mikael, Nellis Anthony J, Swahn Christian, JADEMYR PER JONAS …2026-02: 8 open-market sales, $2.9M2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $2.5M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Carlson Jan — Sale on 2026-06-12, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Kortuem Franz-Josef — Sale on 2026-02-26, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Jarlegren Magnus — Sale on 2026-02-25, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Bratt Mikael — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Nellis Anthony J — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Swahn Christian — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer JADEMYR PER JONAS — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hagstrom Mikael — Sale on 2026-02-24, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-12Carlson JandirectorSale19,607 @ $130.00$2.5M−24.6% of holding−6.5%not yet — horizon still open60,000Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-26Kortuem Franz-JosefdirectorSale8,300 @ $120.40$999K−59.9% of holding−6.7%−9.1%5,549Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-25Jarlegren MagnusofficerSale1,598 @ $121.61$194K−17.1% of holding−5.6%−7.2%7,739Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-24Bratt MikaeldirectorSale8,974 @ $123.51$1.1M−23.5% of holding−10.0%−10.0%29,290Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-24Nellis Anthony JofficerSale1,758 @ $122.03$215K−17.6% of holding−10.0%−10.0%8,212Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-24Swahn ChristianofficerSale1,478 @ $122.03$180K−21.8% of holding−10.0%−10.0%5,314Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-24JADEMYR PER JONASofficerSale1,278 @ $122.03$156K−39.4% of holding−10.0%−10.0%1,963Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-24Hagstrom MikaelofficerSale496 @ $122.03$61K−28.8% of holding−10.0%−10.0%1,224Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

292 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2029-02-19Naughton ColinofficerAward / grant273,223Form 4
2026-09-15Yih SngofficerAward / grant5613Form 4
2026-09-15Nellis Anthony JofficerAward / grant6848Form 4
2026-09-15ALBUSCHUS PETRAofficerAward / grant3338Form 4
2026-09-15Naughton ColinofficerAward / grant111,442Form 4
2026-09-15Naughton ColinofficerAward / grant5606Form 4
2026-09-15Grama MonikaofficerAward / grant1192Form 4
2026-09-15Jarlegren MagnusofficerAward / grant111,442Form 4
2026-09-15Grama MonikaofficerAward / grant3458Form 4
2026-09-15Jarlegren MagnusofficerAward / grant577,680Form 4
2026-09-15Hagstrom MikaelofficerAward / grant1150Form 4
2026-09-15Yih SngofficerAward / grant5606Form 4
2026-09-15Dumont FabienofficerAward / grant5688Form 4
2026-09-15Naughton ColinofficerAward / grant7947Form 4
2026-09-15JADEMYR PER JONASofficerAward / grant3409Form 4
2026-09-15JADEMYR PER JONASofficerAward / grant5654Form 4
2026-09-15Swahn ChristianofficerAward / grant81,067Form 4
2026-09-15Swahn ChristianofficerAward / grant5654Form 4
2026-09-15Nellis Anthony JofficerAward / grant385,137Form 4
2026-09-15Naughton ColinofficerAward / grant5613Form 4
2026-09-15Hagstrom MikaelofficerAward / grant3359Form 4
2026-09-15ALBUSCHUS PETRAofficerAward / grant4507Form 4
2026-09-15Nellis Anthony JofficerAward / grant101,377Form 4
2026-09-15ALBUSCHUS PETRAofficerAward / grant2320Form 4
2026-09-15ALBUSCHUS PETRAofficerAward / grant81,067Form 4
2026-09-15JADEMYR PER JONASofficerAward / grant4507Form 4
2026-09-15Swahn ChristianofficerAward / grant3448Form 4
2026-09-15Swahn ChristianofficerAward / grant4507Form 4
2026-09-15Grama MonikaofficerAward / grant2293Form 4
2026-09-15Jarlegren MagnusofficerAward / grant5613Form 4
2026-09-15Olsson StaffanofficerAward / grant5654Form 4
2026-09-15Yih SngofficerAward / grant111,442Form 4
2026-09-15Nellis Anthony JofficerAward / grant81,067Form 4
2026-09-15Jarlegren MagnusofficerAward / grant7947Form 4
2026-09-15Hagstrom MikaelofficerAward / grant2235Form 4
2026-09-15ALBUSCHUS PETRAofficerAward / grant3409Form 4
2026-09-15Swahn ChristianofficerAward / grant3409Form 4
2026-09-15Olsson StaffanofficerAward / grant3458Form 4
2026-09-15Yih SngofficerAward / grant5733Form 4
2026-09-15Olsson StaffanofficerAward / grant4507Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.