Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.02 · now $4.02 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ALTO has typically landed between $2.96 and $5.22 — a range of −26.4% to +30.0% from the issuance price $4.02.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,998 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.02) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ALTO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.02 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $4.02 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.98 (-0.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.45–$4.52
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.96–$5.22
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2011-07-25 | −65.7% | −65.7% | +9.1% |
| 2008-09-29 | −65.4% | −68.8% | +0.0% |
| 2011-07-20 | −65.3% | −65.3% | +6.9% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-07-20 | +509.6% | +0.0% | +509.6% |
| 2020-07-17 | +457.5% | +0.0% | +457.5% |
| 2020-07-14 | +441.3% | +0.0% | +441.3% |
4,998 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | NATHAN GILBERT E | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $3.93 | $39K | +1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 866,393 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-11 | NATHAN GILBERT E | director | Purchase | 50,000 @ $4.15 | $208K | +6.2% of holding | −3.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 856,393 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | NATHAN GILBERT E | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $4.45 | $22K | +0.6% of holding | +24.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 774,741 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | NATHAN GILBERT E | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $4.61 | $92K | +2.7% of holding | +22.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 769,741 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Sneed James R | officer | Purchase | 3,176 @ $1.06 | $3K | +0.7% of holding | +9.4% | +142.8% | 432,397 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
29 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-23 | NATHAN GILBERT E | director | Award / grant | 31,652 | 806,393 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Nury Dianne S. | director | Award / grant | 23,605 | 241,015 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Gray Maria G | director | Award / grant | 23,605 | 179,229 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-23 | Tank Alan Robert | director | Award / grant | 23,605 | 60,271 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | Graham Auste M | officer | Gift | 20,000 | 233,173 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | McGregor Bryon T | director | Withheld for tax | 73,062 | 957,882 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Olander Robert R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 41,072 | 253,086 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Graham Auste M | officer | Withheld for tax | 32,902 | 253,173 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Benton Todd E | officer | Withheld for tax | 25,359 | 184,130 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Sneed James R | officer | Withheld for tax | 22,265 | 440,926 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Sneed James R | officer | Award / grant | 30,794 | 463,191 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Olander Robert R. | officer | Award / grant | 35,730 | 294,158 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Benton Todd E | officer | Award / grant | 35,730 | 209,489 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | Graham Auste M | officer | Award / grant | 30,794 | 286,075 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-17 | McGregor Bryon T | director | Award / grant | 100,108 | 1,030,944 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-09 | NATHAN GILBERT E | director | Award / grant | 49,166 | 749,741 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-09 | Tank Alan Robert | director | Award / grant | 36,666 | 36,666 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-09 | Bezdek Jeremy | director | Award / grant | 36,666 | 36,666 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-09 | Nury Dianne S. | director | Award / grant | 36,666 | 217,410 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-09 | Gray Maria G | director | Award / grant | 36,666 | 155,624 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | McGregor Bryon T | director | Withheld for tax | 58,929 | 930,836 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Graham Auste M | officer | Withheld for tax | 22,677 | 255,281 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Olander Robert R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 22,128 | 258,428 | Form 4 |
| 2025-04-01 | Benton Todd E | officer | Withheld for tax | 15,353 | 173,759 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-31 | Benton Todd E | officer | Award / grant | 55,500 | 189,112 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-31 | Sneed James R | officer | Award / grant | 47,834 | 429,221 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-31 | Graham Auste M | officer | Award / grant | 47,834 | 277,958 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-31 | Olander Robert R. | officer | Award / grant | 55,500 | 280,556 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-31 | McGregor Bryon T | director | Award / grant | 155,500 | 989,765 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.