Issued 2026-09-25 at $3.06 · now $3.06 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, ALT has typically landed between $2.16 and $4.51 — a range of −29.5% to +47.3% from the issuance price $3.06.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,323 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-05-26 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($3.06) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ALT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $3.06 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $3.06 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.9 (-5.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.5–$3.3
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.16–$4.51
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2018-09-21 | −84.3% | −85.3% | +0.0% |
| 2018-09-20 | −83.6% | −85.3% | +0.0% |
| 2018-09-25 | −70.1% | −70.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-06-18 | +355.6% | +0.0% | +355.6% |
| 2020-06-19 | +324.3% | +0.0% | +349.5% |
| 2023-11-24 | +290.4% | +0.0% | +290.4% |
2,323 overlapping windows · 2017-05-26 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- 2027-03-31 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: RESTORE TRIAL: A Phase 2 Study Evaluating the Efficacy and Safety of Pemvidutide in the Treatment of Alcohol-Associated Liver Disease (ALD) (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Durso Jerome Benedict | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $2.95 | $44K | +31.6% of holding | +17.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,500 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-06 | GILL JOHN | director | Purchase | 9,200 @ $3.41 | $31K | +73.6% of holding | −17.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 21,700 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-01 | Durso Jerome Benedict | director | Purchase | 15,000 @ $3.14 | $47K | +46.2% of holding | −19.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,500 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-01 | WEAVER GREGORY L | officer | Purchase | 10,000 @ $3.15 | $31K | +35.6% of holding | −19.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,078 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-06 | Durso Jerome Benedict | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $3.54 | $71K | +160.0% of holding | −2.8% | −18.5% | 32,500 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | WEAVER GREGORY L | officer | Purchase | 5,000 @ $3.54 | $18K | +21.7% of holding | −2.8% | −18.5% | 28,078 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | Pisano Wayne | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $4.08 | $20K | +58.8% of holding | +14.3% | −35.9% | 13,498 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Sohn Catherine A. | director | Purchase | 500 @ $4.24 | $2K | +50.0% of holding | +25.7% | −32.9% | 1,500 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-29 | Jorkasky Diane | director | Purchase | 527 @ $3.80 | $2K | ownership Δ n/a | +37.7% | −23.4% | 527 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-23 | GILL JOHN | director | Purchase | 12,500 @ $4.10 | $51K | ownership Δ n/a | +40.8% | −36.0% | 12,500 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-22 | Durso Jerome Benedict | director | Purchase | 12,500 @ $4.13 | $52K | ownership Δ n/a | +32.2% | −38.5% | 12,500 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-17 | Sohn Catherine A. | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $5.78 | $6K | ownership Δ n/a | −19.2% | −56.3% | 1,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-13 | WEAVER GREGORY L | officer | Purchase | 10,000 @ $5.20 | $52K | ownership Δ n/a | −12.3% | −49.9% | 10,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-08-19 | Drutz David | director | Sale | 8,184 @ $6.88 | $56K | −12.8% of holding | −1.8% | −21.8% | 55,524 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-08-19 | Drutz David | director | Sale | 7,827 @ $6.93 | $54K | −15.7% of holding | −1.8% | −21.8% | 41,958 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
149 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Richardson Linda M | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,826 | 17,174 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | Richardson Linda M | officer | Option exercise | 24,000 | 24,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | Richardson Linda M | officer | Option exercise | 24,000 | 72,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | WEAVER GREGORY L | officer | Award / grant | 1,753 | 39,831 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | Roberts M Scot | officer | Award / grant | 875 | 113,699 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | GILL JOHN | director | Award / grant | 48,800 | 48,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Jorkasky Diane | director | Award / grant | 48,800 | 48,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Sohn Catherine A. | director | Award / grant | 48,800 | 48,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Hodges Philip | director | Award / grant | 48,800 | 48,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | SAYARE MITCHEL | director | Award / grant | 48,800 | 48,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Lawver Teri L | director | Award / grant | 48,800 | 48,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Schafer Klaus | director | Award / grant | 48,800 | 48,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Pisano Wayne | director | Award / grant | 48,800 | 48,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | WEAVER GREGORY L | officer | Award / grant | 259,000 | 259,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Roberts M Scot | officer | Award / grant | 95,430 | 95,430 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | Roberts M Scot | officer | Award / grant | 222,670 | 222,670 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-26 | WEAVER GREGORY L | officer | Award / grant | 111,000 | 111,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Roberts M Scot | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,329 | 112,824 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Roberts M Scot | officer | Option exercise | 7,775 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-02 | Roberts M Scot | officer | Option exercise | 7,775 | 115,153 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Garg Vipin K | director | Award / grant | 6,926 | 424,519 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Roberts M Scot | officer | Award / grant | 5,567 | 107,378 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-31 | Jordt Raymond M | officer | Award / grant | 4,571 | 70,107 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Garg Vipin K | director | Withheld for tax | 11,632 | 417,593 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Roberts M Scot | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,859 | 101,811 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Garg Vipin K | director | Option exercise | 26,775 | 429,225 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Roberts M Scot | officer | Option exercise | 9,275 | 9,275 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Roberts M Scot | officer | Option exercise | 9,275 | 104,670 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Garg Vipin K | director | Option exercise | 26,775 | 26,775 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | Garg Vipin K | director | Withheld for tax | 17,898 | 402,450 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | Roberts M Scot | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,748 | 95,395 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | Jordt Raymond M | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,229 | 65,536 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | Garg Vipin K | director | Option exercise | 41,200 | 123,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | Roberts M Scot | officer | Option exercise | 15,850 | 47,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | Garg Vipin K | director | Option exercise | 41,200 | 420,348 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | Jordt Raymond M | officer | Option exercise | 15,850 | 69,765 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | Roberts M Scot | officer | Option exercise | 15,850 | 100,143 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | Jordt Raymond M | officer | Option exercise | 15,850 | 47,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-25 | Garg Vipin K | director | Withheld for tax | 17,984 | 379,148 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-25 | Roberts M Scot | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,373 | 84,293 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.