Issued 2026-09-16 at $118.64 · now $118.64 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ALSN has typically landed between $105.08 and $137.49 — a range of −11.4% to +15.9% from the issuance price $118.64.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,626 overlapping 1 month windows · 2012-03-15 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($118.64) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ALSN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $118.64 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $118.64 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $121.56 (+2.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $114.42–$128.7
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $105.08–$137.49
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −39.4% | −39.4% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-24 | −33.9% | −38.8% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −33.8% | −33.8% | +1.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-01-17 | +28.2% | +0.0% | +28.2% |
| 2024-01-24 | +27.5% | +0.0% | +27.5% |
| 2014-10-13 | +27.3% | +0.0% | +27.4% |
3,626 overlapping windows · 2012-03-15 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~15 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Graziosi David S. | director | Sale | 13,100 @ $132.44 | $1.7M | −4.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 318,451 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Graziosi David S. | director | Sale | 9,050 @ $133.21 | $1.2M | −2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 309,401 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Graziosi David S. | director | Sale | 4,558 @ $134.05 | $611K | −1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 304,843 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Scroggins Eric C. | officer | Sale | 1,050 @ $125.00 | $131K | −5.9% of holding | +3.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,604 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Bohley G Frederick | officer | Sale | 3,961 @ $122.38 | $485K | −3.4% of holding | +4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,886 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Mell Scott A | officer | Sale | 1,337 @ $125.00 | $167K | −55.9% of holding | −4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,053 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-08 | Mell Scott A | officer | Sale | 933 @ $125.00 | $117K | −47.0% of holding | −4.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,053 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Scroggins Eric C. | officer | Sale | 1,313 @ $114.40 | $150K | −6.9% of holding | +7.0% | −1.5% | 17,654 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Bohley G Frederick | officer | Sale | 4,712 @ $117.02 | $551K | −4.5% of holding | −1.2% | −5.5% | 99,074 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Bohley G Frederick | officer | Sale | 4,508 @ $116.00 | $523K | −4.2% of holding | −1.2% | −5.5% | 103,786 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Bohley G Frederick | officer | Sale | 1,128 @ $115.41 | $130K | −1.0% of holding | −1.2% | −5.5% | 108,294 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-31 | Coll John | officer | Sale | 1,791 @ $98.79 | $177K | −15.2% of holding | +10.6% | +8.9% | 10,021 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-30 | Coll John | officer | Sale | 1,788 @ $84.32 | $151K | −13.1% of holding | −7.1% | +41.9% | 11,812 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Bohley G Frederick | officer | Purchase | 3,000 @ $89.50 | $268K | +3.1% of holding | −3.5% | +27.1% | 99,074 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-30 | Coll John | officer | Sale | 1,788 @ $94.69 | $169K | −11.6% of holding | −11.0% | −6.2% | 13,600 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-21 | Milburn Ryan A. | officer | Sale | 3,412 @ $105.24 | $359K | −22.2% of holding | −14.0% | −35.8% | 11,924 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-07 | Scroggins Eric C. | officer | Sale | 5,358 @ $98.05 | $525K | −28.2% of holding | +0.0% | −37.9% | 13,667 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
283 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Shivram Krishna | director | Award / grant | 3 | 6 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | EVERITT DAVID C | director | Award / grant | 64 | 3,826 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Perna Gustave | director | Award / grant | 3 | 6 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Mell Scott A | officer | Award / grant | 28 | 130 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | HAZNEDAR CAROLANN I | director | Award / grant | 52 | 1,607 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | BARBOUR D. SCOTT | director | Award / grant | 3 | 6 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Ostojic Sasha | director | Award / grant | 3 | 6 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Christman Philip J | director | Award / grant | 3 | 6 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Altmaier Judy L | director | Award / grant | 50 | 1,484 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Scroggins Eric C. | officer | Award / grant | 11 | 61 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Bohley G Frederick | officer | Award / grant | 35 | 205 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Price Michael Craig | officer | Award / grant | 38 | 122 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | Graziosi David S. | director | Award / grant | 131 | 799 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Graziosi David S. | director | Option exercise | 26,708 | 331,551 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | Graziosi David S. | director | Option exercise | 26,708 | 17,593 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Bohley G Frederick | officer | Option exercise | 3,961 | 116,847 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Bohley G Frederick | officer | Option exercise | 3,961 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Bohley G Frederick | officer | Withheld for tax | 242 | 112,886 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Bohley G Frederick | officer | Option exercise | 533 | 534 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Bohley G Frederick | officer | Option exercise | 10 | 170 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Bohley G Frederick | officer | Option exercise | 533 | 113,118 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Bohley G Frederick | officer | Option exercise | 533 | 113,118 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Bohley G Frederick | officer | Option exercise | 10 | 113,128 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Bohley G Frederick | officer | Option exercise | 10 | 113,128 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Christman Philip J | director | Award / grant | 3 | 3 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Mell Scott A | officer | Award / grant | 31 | 102 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Ostojic Sasha | director | Award / grant | 3 | 3 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Perna Gustave | director | Award / grant | 3 | 3 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Price Michael Craig | officer | Award / grant | 42 | 84 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | EVERITT DAVID C | director | Award / grant | 73 | 3,762 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Altmaier Judy L | director | Award / grant | 57 | 1,434 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Shivram Krishna | director | Award / grant | 3 | 3 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Graziosi David S. | director | Award / grant | 144 | 668 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Scroggins Eric C. | officer | Award / grant | 13 | 50 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | BARBOUR D. SCOTT | director | Award / grant | 3 | 3 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | Bohley G Frederick | officer | Award / grant | 39 | 180 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-29 | HAZNEDAR CAROLANN I | director | Award / grant | 59 | 1,555 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Mell Scott A | officer | Option exercise | 1,337 | 2,390 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Mell Scott A | officer | Option exercise | 1,337 | 6,687 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | EVERITT DAVID C | director | Award / grant | 1,503 | 36,131 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.