ALRS · TickerCove

ALRSAlerus Financial CorporationFinancial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $33.04 · now $33.04 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ALRS has typically landed between $28.96 and $37.66 — a range of −12.4% to +14.0% from the issuance price $33.04.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,002 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($33.04) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$33.04 · 92% of range

$20.29 low$34.12 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.0%

typical move · IQR 11.6%

−12.4%worst (p90)+14.0%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where ALRS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $33.04 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $33.04 (+0.0%)
typical $33.02 (-0.0%)
middle 50% $31.11–$34.93
90% range $28.96–$37.66

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,002 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2008-09-17	−34.4%	−34.4%	+0.0%
2020-02-13	−28.3%	−28.3%	+0.3%
2020-02-24	−27.1%	−27.5%	+0.0%
3 best
2023-05-08	+40.8%	+0.0%	+40.8%
2025-04-11	+38.5%	+0.0%	+38.5%
2023-05-09	+36.7%	−0.3%	+39.6%

5,002 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

45%

+0.8%

n=20

Feb

55%

+0.4%

n=20

Mar

55%

−1.3%

n=20

Apr

55%

−0.1%

n=20

May

70%

+3.5%

n=20

Jun

70%

+1.4%

n=20

Jul

60%

+2.0%

n=20

Aug

55%

+0.9%

n=20

Sep

60%

+1.3%

n=20

Oct

40%

−1.5%

n=20

Nov

70%

+2.6%

n=20

Dec

45%

+0.7%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-14	Koob Kari	officer	Sale	597 @ $33.13	$20K	−54.3% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	503	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-01	Bolton Jeffrey	director	Purchase	1,000 @ $32.45	$32K	+7.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	15,163	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-27	Bolton Jeffrey	director	Purchase	1,000 @ $28.71	$29K	+7.6% of holding	+10.8%	not yet — horizon still open	14,163	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-31	Villalon Alan	officer	Purchase	2,350 @ $21.21	$50K	+28.5% of holding	+3.3%	+8.6%	10,587	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-01	Wilson Forrest	officer	Purchase	5,000 @ $19.93	$100K	+54.3% of holding	−2.3%	−14.9%	14,204	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

105 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-03	Koob Kari	officer	Withheld for tax	102	1,100	Form 4
2026-07-01	Koob Kari	officer	Withheld for tax	140	1,202	Form 4
2026-05-22	Bolton Jeffrey	director	Award / grant	1,772	13,163	Form 4
2026-05-22	Coughlin Daniel E	director	Award / grant	1,772	49,083	Form 4
2026-05-22	Sorum Nikki	director	Award / grant	1,772	7,352	Form 4
2026-05-22	Zimmer Mary	director	Award / grant	1,772	12,374	Form 4
2026-05-22	Uribe John	director	Award / grant	1,772	7,352	Form 4
2026-05-22	ESTEP JANET O	director	Award / grant	1,772	14,841	Form 4
2026-05-22	Vetter Galen G	director	Award / grant	1,772	27,311	Form 4
2026-05-22	Newman Randy L	director	Award / grant	1,772	309,886	Form 4
2026-02-26	Lorenson Katie A	director	Withheld for tax	2,866	58,531	Form 4
2026-02-26	Collins Jim	officer	Withheld for tax	1,298	16,108	Form 4
2026-02-26	Taylor Karin M	officer	Withheld for tax	1,094	28,590	Form 4
2026-02-26	Keney Missy	officer	Withheld for tax	608	10,206	Form 4
2026-02-26	Taylor Karin M	officer	Award / grant	6,876	6,876	Form 4
2026-02-26	Koob Kari	officer	Award / grant	1,298	1,298	Form 4
2026-02-26	Collins Jim	officer	Option exercise	4,239	17,406	Form 4
2026-02-26	Collins Jim	officer	Option exercise	4,239	0	Form 4
2026-02-26	Collins Jim	officer	Award / grant	9,058	9,058	Form 4
2026-02-26	Keney Missy	officer	Option exercise	2,349	10,814	Form 4
2026-02-26	Keney Missy	officer	Option exercise	2,349	0	Form 4
2026-02-26	Keney Missy	officer	Award / grant	5,153	5,153	Form 4
2026-02-26	Villalon Alan	officer	Option exercise	3,217	15,719	Form 4
2026-02-26	Villalon Alan	officer	Option exercise	3,217	0	Form 4
2026-02-26	Villalon Alan	officer	Award / grant	7,246	7,246	Form 4
2026-02-26	Taylor Karin M	officer	Option exercise	3,574	29,684	Form 4
2026-02-26	Taylor Karin M	officer	Option exercise	3,574	0	Form 4
2026-02-26	Lorenson Katie A	director	Option exercise	9,363	61,397	Form 4
2026-02-26	Lorenson Katie A	director	Option exercise	9,363	0	Form 4
2026-02-26	Lorenson Katie A	director	Award / grant	19,022	19,022	Form 4
2026-02-26	Wilson Forrest	officer	Award / grant	6,602	6,602	Form 4
2026-02-23	Lorenson Katie A	director	Withheld for tax	2,025	51,912	Form 4
2026-02-23	Collins Jim	officer	Withheld for tax	917	13,022	Form 4
2026-02-23	Keney Missy	officer	Withheld for tax	779	3,566	Form 4
2026-02-23	Taylor Karin M	officer	Withheld for tax	774	26,110	Form 4
2026-02-23	Keney Missy	officer	Withheld for tax	436	8,465	Form 4
2026-02-21	Collins Jim	officer	Option exercise	2,523	0	Form 4
2026-02-21	Lorenson Katie A	director	Option exercise	5,572	0	Form 4
2026-02-21	Taylor Karin M	officer	Option exercise	2,128	0	Form 4
2026-02-21	Villalon Alan	officer	Option exercise	1,915	0	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i