ALRMAlarm.com Holdings, Inc.Technology · Software - Applicationas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $55.48 · now $55.48 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ALRM has typically landed between $48.61 and $63.14 — a range of −12.4% to +13.8% from the issuance price $55.48.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,801 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-06-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($55.48) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ALRM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $55.48 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$48.61worst · -12.4%$63.14best · +13.8%
  • now $55.48 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $55.1 (-0.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $51.86–$58.35
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $48.61–$63.14
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,801 windows spanning 2015-06-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2015-08-27−31.9%−31.9%+0.7%
2015-08-28−31.8%−31.8%+1.3%
2015-08-31−31.5%−32.7%+0.0%
3 best
2015-10-27+56.6%+0.0%+56.6%
2016-02-08+53.0%−0.7%+57.0%
2016-02-11+48.7%+0.0%+58.1%

2,801 overlapping windows · 2015-06-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
36%
−0.5%
n=11
Feb
45%
+3.0%
n=11
Mar
36%
−0.9%
n=11
Apr
55%
+1.4%
n=11
May
55%
−0.2%
n=11
Jun
55%
+5.4%
n=11
Jul
75%
+7.1%
n=12
Aug
50%
+1.3%
n=12
Sep
33%
−5.0%
n=12
Oct
55%
−2.3%
n=11
Nov
64%
+6.8%
n=11
Dec
36%
+3.0%
n=11

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$59$422026-08-24: 1 insider sale, $2.9M — Trundle Stephen2026-08-12: 1 insider sale, $297K — Bradley Kevin Christopher2026-07-02: 1 insider sale, $35K — Bradley Kevin Christopher2026-06-12: 1 insider sale, $93K — Ramos Daniel2026-06-10: 2 insider sales, $471K — Ramos Daniel, Bradley Kevin Christopher2026-05-26: 3 insider sales, $549K — Trundle Stephen, Kerzner Daniel, Ramos Daniel2026-05-18: 3 insider sales, $280K — Trundle Stephen, Kerzner Daniel, Ramos Daniel2026-03-18: 2 insider sales, $1.7M — NEVIN DARIUS G, Bradley Kevin Christopher2025-12-16: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — BEDELL JEFFREY A2025-12-12: 2 insider sales, $180K — BEDELL JEFFREY A, Evans Stephen C.2025-11-20: 2 insider purchases, $481K — Trundle Stephen …2025-11-19: 1 insider purchase, $605K — Trundle Stephen2025-11-18: 1 insider purchase, $172K — Trundle Stephen2025-11-13: 1 insider sale, $503K — Kerzner Daniel2025-11-12: 1 insider sale, $1.0M — Kerzner Daniel2025-11: 4 open-market purchases, $1.3M2025-11: 2 open-market sales, $1.5M2025-12: 3 open-market sales, $1.4M2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $1.7M2026-05: 6 open-market sales, $829K2026-06: 3 open-market sales, $564K2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $35K2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $3.2M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Trundle Stephen — Sale on 2026-08-24, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Bradley Kevin Christopher — Sale on 2026-08-12, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Bradley Kevin Christopher — Sale on 2026-07-02, filed same dayofficer Ramos Daniel — Sale on 2026-06-12, filed same dayofficer Ramos Daniel — Sale on 2026-06-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Bradley Kevin Christopher — Sale on 2026-06-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Trundle Stephen — Sale on 2026-05-26, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Kerzner Daniel — Sale on 2026-05-26, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ramos Daniel — Sale on 2026-05-26, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Trundle Stephen — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Kerzner Daniel — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ramos Daniel — Sale on 2026-05-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector NEVIN DARIUS G — Sale on 2026-03-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Bradley Kevin Christopher — Sale on 2026-03-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer BEDELL JEFFREY A — Sale on 2025-12-16, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer BEDELL JEFFREY A — Sale on 2025-12-12, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Evans Stephen C. — Sale on 2025-12-12, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Trundle Stephen — Purchase on 2025-11-20, filed same daydirector Trundle Stephen — Purchase on 2025-11-20, filed same daydirector Trundle Stephen — Purchase on 2025-11-19, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Trundle Stephen — Purchase on 2025-11-18, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Kerzner Daniel — Sale on 2025-11-13, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Kerzner Daniel — Sale on 2025-11-12, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-24Trundle StephendirectorSale50,000 @ $57.67$2.9M−13.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open324,842Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-12Bradley Kevin ChristopherofficerSale5,400 @ $55.07$297K−6.5% of holding+0.9%not yet — horizon still open78,222Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-02Bradley Kevin ChristopherofficerSale724 @ $48.46$35K−0.9% of holding+10.0%not yet — horizon still open83,622Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-12Ramos DanielofficerSale2,000 @ $46.50$93K−3.6% of holding+10.0%not yet — horizon still open53,099Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-10Ramos DanielofficerSale8,000 @ $46.23$370K−12.7% of holding+9.7%not yet — horizon still open55,099Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-10Bradley Kevin ChristopherofficerSale2,200 @ $46.15$102K−2.5% of holding+9.7%not yet — horizon still open84,346Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-26Trundle StephendirectorSale6,073 @ $43.78$266K−1.8% of holding+2.4%not yet — horizon still open324,842Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-26Kerzner DanielofficerSale3,944 @ $43.78$173K−3.8% of holding+2.4%not yet — horizon still open101,141Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-26Ramos DanielofficerSale2,532 @ $43.78$111K−3.9% of holding+2.4%not yet — horizon still open63,099Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-18Trundle StephendirectorSale2,944 @ $43.56$128K−0.9% of holding+2.9%not yet — horizon still open330,915Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-18Kerzner DanielofficerSale1,915 @ $43.56$83K−1.8% of holding+2.9%not yet — horizon still open105,085Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-18Ramos DanielofficerSale1,561 @ $43.56$68K−2.3% of holding+2.9%not yet — horizon still open65,631Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-18NEVIN DARIUS GdirectorSale36,000 @ $46.17$1.7M−59.6% of holding−6.7%not yet — horizon still open24,375Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-18Bradley Kevin ChristopherofficerSale1,510 @ $45.97$69K−2.8% of holding−6.7%not yet — horizon still open51,546Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-16BEDELL JEFFREY AofficerSale22,727 @ $51.82$1.2M−4.3% of holding−4.4%−25.3%505,805Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-12BEDELL JEFFREY AofficerSale2,273 @ $52.51$119K−0.4% of holding−3.5%−22.5%505,805Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-12Evans Stephen C.directorSale1,154 @ $52.27$60K−15.9% of holding−3.5%−22.5%6,123Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-20Trundle StephendirectorPurchase9,900 @ $48.06$476K+0.8% of holding+4.5%−23.6%1,315,243Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-20Trundle StephendirectorPurchase100 @ $48.66$5K+0.0% of holding+4.5%−23.6%1,315,343Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-19Trundle StephendirectorPurchase12,469 @ $48.53$605K+1.0% of holding+6.4%−22.2%1,305,343Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-18Trundle StephendirectorPurchase3,531 @ $48.57$172K+0.3% of holding+6.3%−23.7%1,292,874Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-13Kerzner DanielofficerSale10,000 @ $50.33$503K−16.1% of holding+0.8%−23.6%52,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12Kerzner DanielofficerSale20,004 @ $50.29$1.0M−27.8% of holding+4.2%−24.0%52,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-02Bradley Kevin ChristopherofficerSale754 @ $56.75$43K−1.4% of holding−5.5%−21.1%53,056Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-11Evans Stephen C.directorSale1,000 @ $59.64$60K−12.1% of holding−11.1%−24.9%7,277Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-27Ramos DanielofficerSale7,000 @ $57.68$404K−14.2% of holding−6.1%−22.6%42,192Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-23Trundle StephendirectorSale3,644 @ $56.66$206K−1.3% of holding−4.3%−26.0%268,859Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-23Kerzner DanielofficerSale2,213 @ $56.66$125K−3.0% of holding−4.3%−26.0%72,004Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-23BEDELL JEFFREY AofficerSale2,204 @ $56.66$125K−0.4% of holding−4.3%−26.0%505,805Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-23Ramos DanielofficerSale1,762 @ $56.66$100K−3.5% of holding−4.3%−26.0%49,192Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-16Trundle StephendirectorSale3,626 @ $59.51$216K−1.4% of holding−5.1%−29.4%247,503Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-16Kerzner DanielofficerSale2,019 @ $59.51$120K−3.4% of holding−5.1%−29.4%56,717Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-16BEDELL JEFFREY AofficerSale2,019 @ $59.51$120K−0.4% of holding−5.1%−29.4%490,509Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-16Ramos DanielofficerSale1,646 @ $59.51$98K−4.3% of holding−5.1%−29.4%36,954Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-16Bradley Kevin ChristopherofficerSale390 @ $59.51$23K−0.7% of holding−5.1%−29.4%53,810Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-14Ramos DanielofficerSale6,890 @ $60.06$414K−15.1% of holding−7.1%−33.3%38,600Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-02Trundle StephendirectorSale1,553 @ $55.49$86K−0.6% of holding−2.7%−25.5%251,129Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-02Kerzner DanielofficerSale932 @ $55.49$52K−1.6% of holding−2.7%−25.5%58,736Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-02Ramos DanielofficerSale777 @ $55.49$43K−1.9% of holding−2.7%−25.5%40,323Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-02BEDELL JEFFREY AofficerSale777 @ $55.49$43K−0.2% of holding−2.7%−25.5%492,528Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-12Valenzuela SteveofficerSale3,436 @ $58.45$201K−8.4% of holding−7.2%−22.2%37,500Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-06Valenzuela SteveofficerSale1,564 @ $59.57$93K−4.0% of holding−1.9%−16.9%37,500Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-13Kerzner DanielofficerSale32,851 @ $66.40$2.2M−35.5% of holding−6.8%−15.6%59,668Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-10Trundle StephendirectorSale45,501 @ $68.15$3.1M−15.2% of holding−9.2%−16.5%254,681Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-10Trundle StephendirectorSale1,999 @ $68.81$138K−0.8% of holding−9.2%−16.5%252,682Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

54 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-02Trundle StephendirectorGift2,000322,842Form 4
2026-08-24Trundle StephendirectorOption exercise50,000374,842Form 4
2026-08-24Trundle StephendirectorOption exercise50,0000Form 4
2026-06-04Clarke Donald EdirectorAward / grant3,22218,175Form 4
2026-06-04NEVIN DARIUS GdirectorAward / grant3,22227,597Form 4
2026-06-04Whall Timothy J.directorAward / grant3,22214,404Form 4
2026-06-04McAdam Timothy PdirectorAward / grant3,222103,838Form 4
2026-06-04WU SimonedirectorAward / grant3,22215,855Form 4
2026-06-04Evans Stephen C.directorAward / grant3,2229,345Form 4
2026-06-04Harper Cecile BurleighdirectorAward / grant3,2228,036Form 4
2026-04-08Trundle StephendirectorAward / grant65,000333,859Form 4
2026-04-08Ramos DanielofficerAward / grant25,00067,192Form 4
2026-04-08Kerzner DanielofficerAward / grant55,000107,000Form 4
2026-04-08Bradley Kevin ChristopherofficerAward / grant35,00086,546Form 4
2026-03-18NEVIN DARIUS GdirectorOption exercise36,00060,375Form 4
2026-03-18NEVIN DARIUS GdirectorOption exercise36,0000Form 4
2025-12-16BEDELL JEFFREY AofficerOption exercise22,727528,532Form 4
2025-12-16BEDELL JEFFREY AofficerOption exercise22,7270Form 4
2025-12-12BEDELL JEFFREY AofficerOption exercise2,273508,078Form 4
2025-12-12BEDELL JEFFREY AofficerOption exercise2,27322,727Form 4
2025-11-25McAdam Timothy PdirectorGift7,000100,616Form 4
2025-11-13Kerzner DanielofficerOption exercise10,00062,000Form 4
2025-11-13Kerzner DanielofficerOption exercise10,0000Form 4
2025-06-05WU SimonedirectorAward / grant2,51012,633Form 4
2025-06-05Whall Timothy J.directorAward / grant2,51011,182Form 4
2025-06-05Harper Cecile BurleighdirectorAward / grant2,5104,814Form 4
2025-06-05Clarke Donald EdirectorAward / grant2,51014,953Form 4
2025-06-05Evans Stephen C.directorAward / grant2,5108,277Form 4
2025-06-05NEVIN DARIUS GdirectorAward / grant2,51024,375Form 4
2025-06-05McAdam Timothy PdirectorAward / grant2,510107,616Form 4
2025-05-22Kerzner DanielofficerAward / grant22,50022,500Form 4
2025-05-22BEDELL JEFFREY AofficerAward / grant17,500508,009Form 4
2025-05-22Trundle StephendirectorAward / grant40,00040,000Form 4
2025-05-22Kerzner DanielofficerAward / grant17,50074,217Form 4
2025-05-22BEDELL JEFFREY AofficerAward / grant22,50022,500Form 4
2025-05-22Ramos DanielofficerAward / grant14,00050,954Form 4
2025-05-22Ramos DanielofficerAward / grant14,00014,000Form 4
2025-05-22Trundle StephendirectorAward / grant25,000272,503Form 4
2025-05-14Ramos DanielofficerOption exercise3,50045,490Form 4
2025-05-14Ramos DanielofficerOption exercise1,66741,990Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.