Issued 2026-09-16 at $239.36 · now $239.36 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ALNY has typically landed between $200.01 and $282.54 — a range of −16.4% to +18.0% from the issuance price $239.36.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($239.36) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ALNY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $239.36 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $239.36 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $238.2 (-0.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $221.24–$255.16
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $200.01–$282.54
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2016-10-05 | −55.3% | −55.3% | +0.0% |
| 2016-09-08 | −53.4% | −53.4% | +6.2% |
| 2016-09-12 | −52.9% | −53.7% | +5.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-06-06 | +70.6% | +0.0% | +70.9% |
| 2024-06-10 | +70.1% | +0.0% | +70.1% |
| 2017-09-07 | +69.1% | +0.0% | +69.1% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+3.4%
n=20
Feb
40%
−0.8%
n=20
Mar
40%
−2.0%
n=20
Apr
35%
−2.1%
n=20
May
65%
+4.6%
n=20
Jun
60%
+5.8%
n=20
Jul
70%
+10.9%
n=20
Aug
60%
+4.6%
n=20
Sep
45%
+2.1%
n=20
Oct
45%
−3.4%
n=20
Nov
70%
+4.5%
n=20
Dec
45%
+0.7%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | PYOTT DAVID E I | director | Sale | 1,222 @ $299.87 | $366K | −36.9% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,094 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | PYOTT DAVID E I | director | Sale | 1,175 @ $298.91 | $351K | −26.2% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,316 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | PYOTT DAVID E I | director | Sale | 921 @ $297.71 | $274K | −17.0% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,491 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | PYOTT DAVID E I | director | Sale | 495 @ $300.72 | $149K | −23.6% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,599 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | PYOTT DAVID E I | director | Sale | 17 @ $302.65 | $5K | −1.1% of holding | +3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,582 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | McLaughlin Melissa | officer | Sale | 909 @ $329.76 | $300K | −7.8% of holding | −18.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,764 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | McLaughlin Melissa | officer | Sale | 829 @ $330.46 | $274K | −7.7% of holding | −18.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,935 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | McLaughlin Melissa | officer | Sale | 293 @ $331.89 | $97K | −2.9% of holding | −18.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,642 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | McLaughlin Melissa | officer | Sale | 199 @ $333.94 | $66K | −2.1% of holding | −18.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,443 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-06 | McLaughlin Melissa | officer | Sale | 56 @ $320.14 | $18K | −0.5% of holding | −18.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,673 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | McLaughlin Melissa | officer | Sale | 359 @ $317.44 | $114K | −2.7% of holding | −16.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,729 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | McLaughlin Melissa | officer | Sale | 265 @ $316.61 | $84K | −2.0% of holding | −16.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,088 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | McLaughlin Melissa | officer | Sale | 245 @ $322.86 | $79K | −2.0% of holding | −16.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,818 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | McLaughlin Melissa | officer | Sale | 224 @ $321.64 | $72K | −1.8% of holding | −16.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,063 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | McLaughlin Melissa | officer | Sale | 209 @ $318.47 | $67K | −1.6% of holding | −16.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,520 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | McLaughlin Melissa | officer | Sale | 147 @ $320.62 | $47K | −1.2% of holding | −16.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,287 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | McLaughlin Melissa | officer | Sale | 86 @ $319.69 | $27K | −0.7% of holding | −16.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,434 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | McLaughlin Melissa | officer | Sale | 81 @ $323.64 | $26K | −0.7% of holding | −16.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,737 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | McLaughlin Melissa | officer | Sale | 8 @ $325.49 | $3K | −0.1% of holding | −16.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,729 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Garg Pushkal | officer | Sale | 740 @ $323.55 | $239K | −3.6% of holding | +6.1% | −31.6% | 19,703 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Garg Pushkal | officer | Sale | 654 @ $322.33 | $211K | −3.1% of holding | +6.1% | −31.6% | 20,443 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Garg Pushkal | officer | Sale | 510 @ $324.59 | $166K | −2.6% of holding | +6.1% | −31.6% | 19,193 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Garg Pushkal | officer | Sale | 500 @ $326.08 | $163K | −2.6% of holding | +6.1% | −31.6% | 18,693 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Fitzgerald Kevin Joseph | director | Sale | 233 @ $323.25 | $75K | −1.1% of holding | +6.1% | −31.6% | 20,870 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Fitzgerald Kevin Joseph | director | Sale | 153 @ $326.24 | $50K | −0.7% of holding | +6.1% | −31.6% | 20,569 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Fitzgerald Kevin Joseph | director | Sale | 148 @ $324.60 | $48K | −0.7% of holding | +6.1% | −31.6% | 20,722 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | Fitzgerald Kevin Joseph | director | Sale | 124 @ $321.81 | $40K | −0.6% of holding | +6.1% | −31.6% | 21,103 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Greenstreet Yvonne | director | Sale | 973 @ $323.84 | $315K | −1.0% of holding | +1.4% | −30.6% | 96,305 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Poulton Jeffrey V. | director | Sale | 818 @ $323.84 | $265K | −1.3% of holding | +1.4% | −30.6% | 62,319 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Tanguler Tolga | director | Sale | 767 @ $323.84 | $248K | −2.2% of holding | +1.4% | −30.6% | 34,777 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Garg Pushkal | officer | Sale | 767 @ $323.84 | $248K | −3.4% of holding | +1.4% | −30.6% | 21,577 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Greenstreet Yvonne | director | Sale | 444 @ $323.01 | $143K | −0.5% of holding | +1.4% | −30.6% | 97,278 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Poulton Jeffrey V. | director | Sale | 374 @ $323.01 | $121K | −0.6% of holding | +1.4% | −30.6% | 63,137 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Greenstreet Yvonne | director | Sale | 368 @ $321.82 | $118K | −0.4% of holding | +1.4% | −30.6% | 97,722 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Garg Pushkal | officer | Sale | 350 @ $323.01 | $113K | −1.5% of holding | +1.4% | −30.6% | 22,344 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Tanguler Tolga | director | Sale | 350 @ $323.01 | $113K | −1.0% of holding | +1.4% | −30.6% | 35,544 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Greenstreet Yvonne | director | Sale | 345 @ $324.88 | $112K | −0.4% of holding | +1.4% | −30.6% | 95,960 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Poulton Jeffrey V. | director | Sale | 309 @ $321.82 | $99K | −0.5% of holding | +1.4% | −30.6% | 63,511 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Poulton Jeffrey V. | director | Sale | 291 @ $324.88 | $95K | −0.5% of holding | +1.4% | −30.6% | 62,028 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Tanguler Tolga | director | Sale | 289 @ $321.82 | $93K | −0.8% of holding | +1.4% | −30.6% | 35,894 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Garg Pushkal | officer | Sale | 289 @ $321.82 | $93K | −1.3% of holding | +1.4% | −30.6% | 22,694 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Garg Pushkal | officer | Sale | 272 @ $324.88 | $88K | −1.3% of holding | +1.4% | −30.6% | 21,305 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Tanguler Tolga | director | Sale | 272 @ $324.88 | $88K | −0.8% of holding | +1.4% | −30.6% | 34,505 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Greenstreet Yvonne | director | Sale | 274 @ $320.81 | $88K | −0.3% of holding | +1.4% | −30.6% | 98,090 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Greenstreet Yvonne | director | Sale | 265 @ $325.67 | $86K | −0.3% of holding | +1.4% | −30.6% | 95,695 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Poulton Jeffrey V. | director | Sale | 230 @ $320.81 | $74K | −0.4% of holding | +1.4% | −30.6% | 63,820 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Poulton Jeffrey V. | director | Sale | 223 @ $325.67 | $73K | −0.4% of holding | +1.4% | −30.6% | 61,805 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Garg Pushkal | officer | Sale | 215 @ $320.81 | $69K | −0.9% of holding | +1.4% | −30.6% | 22,983 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Tanguler Tolga | director | Sale | 215 @ $320.81 | $69K | −0.6% of holding | +1.4% | −30.6% | 36,183 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Fitzgerald Kevin Joseph | director | Sale | 210 @ $323.84 | $68K | −1.0% of holding | +1.4% | −30.6% | 21,359 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Garg Pushkal | officer | Sale | 208 @ $325.67 | $68K | −1.0% of holding | +1.4% | −30.6% | 21,097 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Tanguler Tolga | director | Sale | 208 @ $325.67 | $68K | −0.6% of holding | +1.4% | −30.6% | 34,297 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Greenstreet Yvonne | director | Sale | 135 @ $319.03 | $43K | −0.1% of holding | +1.4% | −30.6% | 98,493 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Greenstreet Yvonne | director | Sale | 129 @ $320.01 | $41K | −0.1% of holding | +1.4% | −30.6% | 98,364 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Poulton Jeffrey V. | director | Sale | 114 @ $319.03 | $36K | −0.2% of holding | +1.4% | −30.6% | 64,159 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Poulton Jeffrey V. | director | Sale | 109 @ $320.01 | $35K | −0.2% of holding | +1.4% | −30.6% | 64,050 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Tanguler Tolga | director | Sale | 106 @ $319.03 | $34K | −0.3% of holding | +1.4% | −30.6% | 36,500 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Garg Pushkal | officer | Sale | 106 @ $319.03 | $34K | −0.5% of holding | +1.4% | −30.6% | 23,300 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Tanguler Tolga | director | Sale | 102 @ $320.01 | $33K | −0.3% of holding | +1.4% | −30.6% | 36,398 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Garg Pushkal | officer | Sale | 102 @ $320.01 | $33K | −0.4% of holding | +1.4% | −30.6% | 23,198 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
53 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | PYOTT DAVID E I | director | Option exercise | 3,830 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Cravatt Benjamin | director | Award / grant | 4,393 | 4,393 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | PYOTT DAVID E I | director | Option exercise | 3,830 | 5,412 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Arbuckle Stuart A | director | Award / grant | 1,441 | 1,441 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | KELLOGG PETER N | director | Award / grant | 1,441 | 1,441 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | SCHULMAN AMY W | director | Award / grant | 1,802 | 1,802 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Ausiello Dennis A | director | Award / grant | 1,441 | 1,441 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Arbuckle Stuart A | director | Award / grant | 671 | 671 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | SCHULMAN AMY W | director | Award / grant | 838 | 24,049 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Ausiello Dennis A | director | Award / grant | 671 | 1,582 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | BRANDICOURT OLIVIER | director | Award / grant | 671 | 1,446 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Reitan Colleen F | director | Award / grant | 671 | 1,446 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | BRANDICOURT OLIVIER | director | Award / grant | 1,441 | 1,441 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Reitan Colleen F | director | Award / grant | 1,441 | 1,441 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | HAMBURG MARGARET A | director | Award / grant | 671 | 1,582 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Sigal Charles Elliott | director | Award / grant | 1,441 | 1,441 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | PYOTT DAVID E I | director | Award / grant | 671 | 1,582 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | KELLOGG PETER N | director | Award / grant | 671 | 1,446 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | HAMBURG MARGARET A | director | Award / grant | 1,441 | 1,441 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Sigal Charles Elliott | director | Award / grant | 671 | 1,446 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | PYOTT DAVID E I | director | Award / grant | 1,441 | 1,441 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | SCHULMAN AMY W | director | Option exercise | 11,250 | 23,211 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-13 | SCHULMAN AMY W | director | Option exercise | 11,250 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Poulton Jeffrey V. | director | Award / grant | 4,769 | 66,479 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | SUPRAN BRYAN | officer | Award / grant | 3,381 | 3,381 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | SUPRAN BRYAN | officer | Award / grant | 1,539 | 14,565 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Greenstreet Yvonne | director | Award / grant | 30,425 | 30,425 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Poulton Jeffrey V. | director | Award / grant | 10,480 | 10,480 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Greenstreet Yvonne | director | Award / grant | 13,844 | 105,427 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Garg Pushkal | officer | Award / grant | 4,769 | 26,898 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Garg Pushkal | officer | Award / grant | 10,480 | 10,480 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Tanguler Tolga | director | Award / grant | 10,480 | 10,480 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Tanguler Tolga | director | Award / grant | 4,769 | 38,204 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Fitzgerald Kevin Joseph | director | Award / grant | 8,105 | 8,105 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Greenstreet Yvonne | director | Award / grant | 110,746 | 110,746 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Fitzgerald Kevin Joseph | director | Award / grant | 3,688 | 25,110 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Greenstreet Yvonne | director | Option exercise | 5,921 | 91,583 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Greenstreet Yvonne | director | Option exercise | 5,921 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Poulton Jeffrey V. | director | Option exercise | 1,908 | 61,710 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-27 | Poulton Jeffrey V. | director | Option exercise | 1,908 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.