ALNTAllient Inc.Industrials · Electrical Equipment & Partsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $94.76 · now $94.76 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ALNT has typically landed between $79.34 and $121.31 — a range of −16.3% to +28.0% from the issuance price $94.76.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,000 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($94.76) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ALNT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $94.76 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$79.34worst · -16.3%$121.31best · +28.0%
  • now $94.76 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $94.95 (+0.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $85.65–$104.26
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $79.34–$121.31
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,000 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2009-01-09−55.9%−58.9%+0.0%
2020-02-19−55.8%−55.8%+3.3%
2020-02-21−55.5%−57.3%+0.0%
3 best
2008-12-09+186.5%−1.4%+186.5%
2009-04-15+114.9%+0.0%+143.0%
2010-02-12+101.8%+0.0%+101.8%

5,000 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
60%
+1.5%
n=20
Feb
45%
+1.5%
n=20
Mar
40%
−2.9%
n=20
Apr
55%
+4.7%
n=20
May
55%
+3.4%
n=20
Jun
50%
+3.1%
n=20
Jul
40%
−0.2%
n=20
Aug
55%
−0.7%
n=20
Sep
40%
+0.6%
n=20
Oct
60%
+1.3%
n=20
Nov
75%
+11.5%
n=20
Dec
60%
+4.9%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$114$422026-08-10: 4 insider sales, $8.0M — WARZALA RICHARD S …2026-03-27: 1 insider sale, $378K — Bendre Ashish2025-12-23: 1 insider purchase, $47K — Winter Michael R2025-12-23: 1 insider sale, $47K — Winter Michael R2025-11-25: 1 insider sale, $836K — Bendre Ashish2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $836K2025-12: 1 open-market purchase, $47K2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $47K2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $378K2026-08: 4 open-market sales, $8.0M↑ buys↓ salesdirector WARZALA RICHARD S — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector WARZALA RICHARD S — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector WARZALA RICHARD S — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector WARZALA RICHARD S — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Bendre Ashish — Sale on 2026-03-27, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Winter Michael R — Purchase on 2025-12-23, filed same daydirector Winter Michael R — Sale on 2025-12-23, filed same dayofficer Bendre Ashish — Sale on 2025-11-25, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-10WARZALA RICHARD SdirectorSale33,944 @ $113.96$3.9M−2.2% of holding−13.8%not yet — horizon still open1,499,958Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10WARZALA RICHARD SdirectorSale18,176 @ $113.52$2.1M−1.2% of holding−13.8%not yet — horizon still open1,533,902Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10WARZALA RICHARD SdirectorSale17,028 @ $112.81$1.9M−1.1% of holding−13.8%not yet — horizon still open1,552,078Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10WARZALA RICHARD SdirectorSale852 @ $115.35$98K−0.1% of holding−13.8%not yet — horizon still open1,499,106Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-27Bendre AshishofficerSale6,000 @ $63.00$378K−22.9% of holding+6.8%not yet — horizon still open20,198Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-23Winter Michael RdirectorPurchase847 @ $55.85$47Kownership Δ n/a+13.0%+68.8%847Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-23Winter Michael RdirectorSale847 @ $55.56$47K−2.1% of holding+13.0%+68.8%38,967Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-25Bendre AshishofficerSale16,000 @ $52.25$836K−40.9% of holding+1.6%+35.9%23,166Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

102 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-10WARZALA RICHARD SdirectorGift10,0001,489,106Form 4
2026-08-10WARZALA RICHARD SdirectorGift10,0001,489,106Form 4
2026-08-05Federico Richard DdirectorAward / grant33177,295Form 4
2026-08-05Engel Robert BdirectorAward / grant29131,131Form 4
2026-08-05Finch Steven C.directorAward / grant29113,649Form 4
2026-08-05Tzetzo Nicole RdirectorAward / grant29114,876Form 4
2026-08-05Winter Michael RdirectorAward / grant29139,985Form 4
2026-06-04Engel Robert BdirectorGift1,75030,840Form 4
2026-06-04Engel Robert BdirectorGift1,75030,840Form 4
2026-05-06Bendre AshishofficerAward / grant40318,411Form 4
2026-05-06Federico Richard DdirectorAward / grant40176,964Form 4
2026-05-06Finch Steven C.directorAward / grant35313,358Form 4
2026-05-06Engel Robert BdirectorAward / grant35332,590Form 4
2026-05-06Tzetzo Nicole RdirectorAward / grant35314,585Form 4
2026-05-06Winter Michael RdirectorAward / grant35339,694Form 4
2026-04-01WARZALA RICHARD SdirectorWithheld for tax22,9561,569,106Form 4
2026-04-01Bendre AshishofficerWithheld for tax2,19018,008Form 4
2026-04-01Warzala StephenofficerWithheld for tax1,54434,484Form 4
2026-04-01May Kenneth ArthurofficerWithheld for tax1,33118,124Form 4
2026-04-01Pirthauer HelmutofficerWithheld for tax1,05544,998Form 4
2026-04-01Michaud James AofficerWithheld for tax94713,963Form 4
2026-03-05WARZALA RICHARD SdirectorAward / grant18,8501,572,736Form 4
2026-03-05WARZALA RICHARD SdirectorAward / grant15,7091,588,445Form 4
2026-03-05WARZALA RICHARD SdirectorAward / grant3,6171,592,062Form 4
2026-03-05Michaud James AofficerAward / grant2,73912,290Form 4
2026-03-05Michaud James AofficerAward / grant2,05514,345Form 4
2026-03-05Warzala StephenofficerAward / grant1,66434,494Form 4
2026-03-05Pirthauer HelmutofficerAward / grant1,55246,053Form 4
2026-03-05Warzala StephenofficerAward / grant1,18935,683Form 4
2026-03-05May Kenneth ArthurofficerAward / grant1,04818,332Form 4
2026-03-05Bendre AshishofficerAward / grant1,01524,181Form 4
2026-03-05Bendre AshishofficerAward / grant1,01525,196Form 4
2026-03-05Bendre AshishofficerAward / grant1,00226,198Form 4
2026-03-05May Kenneth ArthurofficerAward / grant83819,170Form 4
2026-03-05Michaud James AofficerAward / grant56514,910Form 4
2026-03-05Federico Richard DdirectorAward / grant43376,563Form 4
2026-03-05Finch Steven C.directorAward / grant37413,005Form 4
2026-03-05Engel Robert BdirectorAward / grant37432,237Form 4
2026-03-05Tzetzo Nicole RdirectorAward / grant37414,232Form 4
2026-03-05Winter Michael RdirectorAward / grant37439,341Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.