Issued 2026-08-13 at $25.55 · now $24.41 (2026-08-13, −4.5% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, ALMS has typically landed between $17.79 and $44.72 — a range of −30.4% to +75.0% from the issuance price $25.55.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
511 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-06-28 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($25.55) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ALMS has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $25.55 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $24.41 (-4.5%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $25.73 (+0.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $21.69–$29.76
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $17.79–$44.72
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-04-04 | −56.7% | −61.9% | +0.2% |
| 2025-04-02 | −53.4% | −61.1% | +2.3% |
| 2025-04-07 | −52.4% | −62.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-01-05 | +217.0% | +0.0% | +233.5% |
| 2026-01-02 | +194.1% | −7.3% | +209.3% |
| 2025-12-31 | +177.0% | −14.9% | +183.9% |
511 overlapping windows · 2024-06-28 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- 2027-12-01 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Open-Label Extension Study to Evaluate the Long Term Safety and Efficacy of ESK-001 in Plaque Psoriasis (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- November 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Long-term Safety and Efficacy of ESK-001 in Moderate to Severe Plaque Psoriasis (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders iOpen-market share purchases and sales by the company's own officers and directors, by filing date.
Last 90 days · as of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filing date
No insider transactions on record in the last 90 days.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.