Issued 2026-09-25 at $7.10 · now $7.10 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, ALMS has typically landed between $4.79 and $11.78 — a range of −32.5% to +65.9% from the issuance price $7.10.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
541 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-06-28 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($7.10) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ALMS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $7.1 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $7.1 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $7.03 (-0.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $5.95–$8.12
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.79–$11.78
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 541 windows spanning 2024-06-28 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-08-26 | −69.9% | −69.9% | +0.0% |
| 2026-08-25 | −69.6% | −69.6% | +0.0% |
| 2026-08-17 | −68.9% | −68.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-01-05 | +217.0% | +0.0% | +233.5% |
| 2026-01-02 | +194.1% | −7.3% | +209.3% |
| 2025-12-31 | +177.0% | −14.9% | +183.9% |
541 overlapping windows · 2024-06-28 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- 2027-12-01 — Trial primary completion: Phase 2 primary completion: Open-Label Extension Study to Evaluate the Long Term Safety and Efficacy of ESK-001 in Plaque Psoriasis (source, as of 2026-08-14)
- November 2028 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: Long-term Safety and Efficacy of ESK-001 in Moderate to Severe Plaque Psoriasis (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+73.1%
n=2
Feb
50%
−8.3%
n=2
Mar
50%
+3.1%
n=2
Apr
50%
−10.2%
n=2
May
0%
−14.0%
n=2
Jun
50%
+8.0%
n=2
Jul
67%
+10.3%
n=3
Aug
67%
−2.5%
n=3
Sep
0%
−32.5%
n=3
Oct
100%
+12.5%
n=2
Nov
50%
+21.6%
n=2
Dec
50%
+6.1%
n=2
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | AKKARAJU SRINIVAS | director | Purchase | 273,291 @ $10.63 | $2.9M | +5.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,937,026 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | AKKARAJU SRINIVAS | director | Purchase | 273,290 @ $10.63 | $2.9M | +13.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,298,783 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | AKKARAJU SRINIVAS | director | Sale | 48,066 @ $10.55 | $507K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,663,735 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | AKKARAJU SRINIVAS | director | Sale | 48,065 @ $10.55 | $507K | −2.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,025,493 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | AKKARAJU SRINIVAS | director | Purchase | 220,070 @ $11.17 | $2.5M | +11.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,073,558 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | AKKARAJU SRINIVAS | director | Purchase | 220,070 @ $11.17 | $2.5M | +4.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,711,801 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Schroer John R. | director | Sale | 3,282 @ $26.37 | $87K | −11.7% of holding | −64.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,718 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Hardiman Roy C. | officer | Sale | 2,692 @ $26.37 | $71K | −1.3% of holding | −64.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 207,746 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Goldstein David M | officer | Sale | 2,596 @ $26.37 | $68K | −7.7% of holding | −64.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,970 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Bradley Mark Christopher | officer | Sale | 2,572 @ $26.37 | $68K | −5.0% of holding | −64.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,533 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Drappa Jorn | director | Sale | 2,447 @ $26.37 | $65K | −4.1% of holding | −64.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 56,892 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Pangali Sanam | officer | Sale | 1,364 @ $26.37 | $36K | −12.3% of holding | −64.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,747 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Pangali Sanam | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $28.00 | $140K | −31.0% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,111 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-09 | AKKARAJU SRINIVAS | director | Purchase | 588,235 @ $17.00 | $10.0M | +46.5% of holding | +36.2% | +30.6% | 1,853,488 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | Tananbaum James B. | director | Purchase | 294,117 @ $17.00 | $5.0M | +11.3% of holding | +43.0% | +45.3% | 2,908,332 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | Foresite Labs, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 294,117 @ $17.00 | $5.0M | +11.3% of holding | +43.0% | +45.3% | 2,908,332 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | Foresite Capital Management VI LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 294,117 @ $17.00 | $5.0M | +11.3% of holding | +43.0% | +45.3% | 2,908,332 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | Foresite Labs, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 117,647 @ $17.00 | $2.0M | +2.1% of holding | +43.0% | +45.3% | 5,702,536 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | Tananbaum James B. | director | Purchase | 117,647 @ $17.00 | $2.0M | +2.1% of holding | +43.0% | +45.3% | 5,702,536 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-08 | Foresite Capital Management VI LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 117,647 @ $17.00 | $2.0M | +2.1% of holding | +43.0% | +45.3% | 5,702,536 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | AKKARAJU SRINIVAS | director | Purchase | 70,028 @ $10.01 | $701K | +6.1% of holding | +62.6% | +74.0% | 1,213,873 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | AKKARAJU SRINIVAS | director | Purchase | 64,969 @ $8.95 | $581K | +6.0% of holding | +62.6% | +74.0% | 1,143,845 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | AKKARAJU SRINIVAS | director | Purchase | 51,380 @ $10.73 | $551K | +4.2% of holding | +62.6% | +74.0% | 1,265,253 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | AKKARAJU SRINIVAS | director | Purchase | 66,027 @ $8.18 | $540K | +6.5% of holding | +114.8% | +132.8% | 1,078,876 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-03 | AKKARAJU SRINIVAS | director | Purchase | 100,000 @ $7.75 | $775K | +11.0% of holding | +5.1% | +133.5% | 1,012,849 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | AKKARAJU SRINIVAS | director | Purchase | 96,000 @ $7.55 | $725K | +11.8% of holding | +20.4% | +148.4% | 912,849 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | AKKARAJU SRINIVAS | director | Purchase | 86,350 @ $7.46 | $644K | +11.8% of holding | +32.2% | +165.5% | 816,849 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-28 | AKKARAJU SRINIVAS | director | Purchase | 38,702 @ $7.64 | $296K | +5.6% of holding | +28.0% | +150.8% | 730,499 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | AKKARAJU SRINIVAS | director | Purchase | 48,537 @ $7.64 | $371K | +7.5% of holding | +35.3% | +149.9% | 691,797 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Foresite Capital Management VI LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 72,212 @ $7.38 | $533K | +2.8% of holding | +52.2% | +178.0% | 2,614,215 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Tananbaum James B. | director | Purchase | 72,212 @ $7.38 | $533K | +2.8% of holding | +52.2% | +178.0% | 2,614,215 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Foresite Labs, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 72,212 @ $7.38 | $533K | +2.8% of holding | +52.2% | +178.0% | 2,614,215 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | AKKARAJU SRINIVAS | director | Purchase | 125,743 @ $7.20 | $905K | +24.3% of holding | +56.3% | +192.6% | 643,260 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Tananbaum James B. | director | Purchase | 190,500 @ $6.56 | $1.2M | +8.1% of holding | +68.8% | +226.0% | 2,542,003 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-19 | Foresite Capital Management VI LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 190,500 @ $6.56 | $1.2M | +8.1% of holding | +68.8% | +226.0% | 2,542,003 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-19 | Foresite Labs, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 190,500 @ $6.56 | $1.2M | +8.1% of holding | +68.8% | +226.0% | 2,542,003 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-19 | AKKARAJU SRINIVAS | director | Purchase | 137,772 @ $6.56 | $904K | +36.3% of holding | +68.8% | +226.0% | 517,517 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-18 | Foresite Labs, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 117,374 @ $6.19 | $727K | +5.3% of holding | +70.1% | +229.9% | 2,351,503 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Tananbaum James B. | director | Purchase | 117,374 @ $6.19 | $727K | +5.3% of holding | +70.1% | +229.9% | 2,351,503 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Foresite Capital Management VI LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 117,374 @ $6.19 | $727K | +5.3% of holding | +70.1% | +229.9% | 2,351,503 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | AKKARAJU SRINIVAS | director | Purchase | 102,652 @ $6.05 | $621K | +37.0% of holding | +70.1% | +229.9% | 379,745 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Tananbaum James B. | director | Purchase | 150,000 @ $5.59 | $839K | +7.2% of holding | +88.7% | +285.1% | 2,234,129 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Foresite Labs, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 150,000 @ $5.59 | $839K | +7.2% of holding | +88.7% | +285.1% | 2,234,129 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Foresite Capital Management VI LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 150,000 @ $5.59 | $839K | +7.2% of holding | +88.7% | +285.1% | 2,234,129 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Foresite Labs, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 50,000 @ $5.60 | $280K | +2.5% of holding | +88.7% | +285.1% | 2,084,129 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Foresite Capital Management VI LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 50,000 @ $5.60 | $280K | +2.5% of holding | +88.7% | +285.1% | 2,084,129 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Tananbaum James B. | director | Purchase | 50,000 @ $5.60 | $280K | +2.5% of holding | +88.7% | +285.1% | 2,084,129 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | AKKARAJU SRINIVAS | director | Purchase | 914 @ $5.51 | $5K | +0.3% of holding | +88.7% | +285.1% | 277,093 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | AKKARAJU SRINIVAS | director | Purchase | 276,179 @ $5.25 | $1.4M | ownership Δ n/a | +112.9% | +298.0% | 276,179 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-06 | Tananbaum James B. | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $4.34 | $87K | +0.5% of holding | −29.1% | −16.9% | 4,247,670 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-06 | Foresite Labs, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 20,000 @ $4.34 | $87K | +0.5% of holding | −29.1% | −16.9% | 4,247,670 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-06 | Foresite Capital Management VI LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 20,000 @ $4.34 | $87K | +0.5% of holding | −29.1% | −16.9% | 4,247,670 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-05 | AKKARAJU SRINIVAS | director | Purchase | 138,368 @ $4.58 | $634K | +4.0% of holding | −28.3% | −18.3% | 3,564,786 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | AKKARAJU SRINIVAS | director | Purchase | 22,002 @ $5.27 | $116K | +0.6% of holding | −28.3% | −18.3% | 3,586,788 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-02 | AKKARAJU SRINIVAS | director | Purchase | 159,920 @ $4.55 | $728K | +4.9% of holding | −30.0% | −17.6% | 3,426,418 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-02 | Foresite Capital Management VI LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 25,000 @ $4.62 | $116K | +0.6% of holding | −30.0% | −17.6% | 4,227,670 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-02 | Tananbaum James B. | director | Purchase | 25,000 @ $4.62 | $116K | +0.6% of holding | −30.0% | −17.6% | 4,227,670 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-02 | Foresite Labs, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 25,000 @ $4.62 | $116K | +0.6% of holding | −30.0% | −17.6% | 4,227,670 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-02 | Colowick Alan | director | Purchase | 2,300 @ $7.49 | $17K | +14.3% of holding | −53.7% | −79.0% | 18,404 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | Colowick Alan | director | Purchase | 16,104 @ $6.97 | $112K | ownership Δ n/a | −46.7% | −63.8% | 16,104 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
233 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Pangali Sanam | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 16,111 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Pangali Sanam | officer | Option exercise | 5,000 | 36,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Machado Patrick | director | Award / grant | 3,553 | 3,553 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Yao Zhengbin | director | Award / grant | 3,553 | 27,082 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Yao Zhengbin | director | Award / grant | 15,528 | 15,528 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Srivastava Sapna | director | Award / grant | 3,553 | 3,553 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Srivastava Sapna | director | Award / grant | 15,528 | 15,528 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | TETRAULT LYNN A. | director | Award / grant | 3,553 | 3,553 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | TETRAULT LYNN A. | director | Award / grant | 15,528 | 15,528 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | AKKARAJU SRINIVAS | director | Award / grant | 3,553 | 3,553 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | AKKARAJU SRINIVAS | director | Award / grant | 15,528 | 15,528 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Machado Patrick | director | Award / grant | 15,528 | 15,528 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Drappa Jorn | director | Option exercise | 11,317 | 43,804 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Drappa Jorn | director | Option exercise | 15,535 | 59,339 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Drappa Jorn | director | Option exercise | 11,317 | 159,805 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Drappa Jorn | director | Option exercise | 15,535 | 164,465 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Foresite Labs, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 1,123,337 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Foresite Labs, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 680,486 | 680,486 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Tananbaum James B. | director | Other acquisition | 1,176,470 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Tananbaum James B. | director | Other acquisition | 680,486 | 680,486 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Tananbaum James B. | director | Other acquisition | 1,123,337 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Tananbaum James B. | director | Other acquisition | 1,123,337 | 1,123,337 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Foresite Capital Management VI LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 1,176,470 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Foresite Capital Management VI LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 1,123,337 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Foresite Capital Management VI LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 1,123,337 | 1,123,337 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Foresite Capital Management VI LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 680,486 | 680,486 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Foresite Labs, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 1,176,470 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-01 | Foresite Labs, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 1,123,337 | 1,123,337 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Hardiman Roy C. | officer | Award / grant | 190,875 | 190,875 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Goldstein David M | officer | Award / grant | 216,675 | 216,675 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Pangali Sanam | officer | Award / grant | 186,200 | 186,200 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Schroer John R. | director | Award / grant | 202,225 | 202,225 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Drappa Jorn | director | Award / grant | 221,450 | 221,450 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Bradley Mark Christopher | officer | Award / grant | 190,225 | 190,225 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-26 | Babler Martin | director | Award / grant | 745,875 | 745,875 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-30 | TETRAULT LYNN A. | director | Award / grant | 49,800 | 49,800 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-30 | Yao Zhengbin | director | Award / grant | 49,800 | 49,800 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-30 | Srivastava Sapna | director | Award / grant | 49,800 | 49,800 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-30 | Machado Patrick | director | Award / grant | 49,800 | 49,800 | Form 4 |
| 2025-07-30 | AKKARAJU SRINIVAS | director | Award / grant | 49,800 | 49,800 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.