ALLYAlly Financial Inc.Financial Services · Financial - Credit Servicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $40.31 · now $40.31 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ALLY has typically landed between $34.39 and $46.28 — a range of −14.7% to +14.8% from the issuance price $40.31.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,157 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-01-28 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($40.31) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ALLY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $40.31 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$34.39worst · -14.7%$46.28best · +14.8%
  • now $40.31 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $40.25 (-0.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $37.74–$42.76
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $34.39–$46.28
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,157 windows spanning 2014-01-28 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−61.5%−61.5%+0.0%
2020-02-20−60.2%−60.2%+0.0%
2020-02-21−57.4%−58.9%+0.0%
3 best
2020-05-06+59.8%−1.4%+59.8%
2020-05-07+56.6%−7.3%+56.6%
2020-05-13+46.3%+0.0%+69.0%

3,157 overlapping windows · 2014-01-28 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
75%
+4.1%
n=12
Feb
62%
+0.2%
n=13
Mar
46%
−3.9%
n=13
Apr
46%
+1.0%
n=13
May
62%
+1.7%
n=13
Jun
69%
+1.6%
n=13
Jul
69%
+3.6%
n=13
Aug
54%
+1.6%
n=13
Sep
23%
−3.4%
n=13
Oct
33%
−1.8%
n=12
Nov
83%
+5.9%
n=12
Dec
42%
+1.2%
n=12

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$47$352026-08-04: 1 insider sale, $221K — Richard Stephanie N2026-05-15: 1 insider sale, $211K — Richard Stephanie N2026-04-17: 1 insider sale, $1.8M — Timmerman Douglas R.2026-01-27: 1 insider purchase, $499K — Hutchinson Russell E.2026-01-23: 1 insider purchase, $992K — RHODES MICHAEL GEORGE2025-10-22: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — Patterson Kathleen L.2025-10: 1 open-market sale, $1.2M2026-01: 2 open-market purchases, $1.5M2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $1.8M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $211K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $221K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Richard Stephanie N — Sale on 2026-08-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Richard Stephanie N — Sale on 2026-05-15, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Timmerman Douglas R. — Sale on 2026-04-17, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Hutchinson Russell E. — Purchase on 2026-01-27, filed 1 day after the tradedirector RHODES MICHAEL GEORGE — Purchase on 2026-01-23, filed same dayofficer Patterson Kathleen L. — Sale on 2025-10-22, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-04Richard Stephanie NofficerSale5,000 @ $44.23$221K−5.3% of holding−4.4%not yet — horizon still open88,927Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-15Richard Stephanie NofficerSale5,000 @ $42.14$211K−5.1% of holding+7.2%not yet — horizon still open93,927Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-17Timmerman Douglas R.officerSale39,675 @ $45.17$1.8M−7.7% of holding−10.6%not yet — horizon still open477,627Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-01-27Hutchinson Russell E.officerPurchase11,566 @ $43.17$499K+5.4% of holding−0.6%−3.9%225,336Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-23RHODES MICHAEL GEORGEdirectorPurchase23,800 @ $41.68$992K+92.8% of holding−0.5%−0.1%49,434Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-22Patterson Kathleen L.officerSale29,000 @ $40.86$1.2M−22.4% of holding−4.5%+2.9%100,203Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-30Richard Stephanie NofficerSale8,000 @ $32.14$257K−8.1% of holding+1.9%−0.2%90,387Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-22Hutchinson Russell E.officerPurchase8,200 @ $30.81$253K+3.6% of holding−1.6%+4.6%236,421Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-27RHODES MICHAEL GEORGEdirectorPurchase25,634 @ $39.09$1.0Mownership Δ n/a−4.5%−6.8%25,634Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-24Hutchinson Russell E.officerPurchase19,100 @ $39.45$753K+10.4% of holding−3.5%−4.2%202,845Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

103 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-21Hutchinson Russell E.officerWithheld for tax12,614241,253Form 4
2026-07-09GIBBONS THOMAS PdirectorAward / grant1,03426,062Form 4
2026-07-09Reilly DaviddirectorAward / grant70836,770Form 4
2026-07-09Bright GuntherdirectorAward / grant3006,466Form 4
2026-05-15CARY WILLIAM HdirectorAward / grant3,63261,285Form 4
2026-05-15Fennebresque Kim SdirectorAward / grant3,63268,002Form 4
2026-05-15GIBBONS THOMAS PdirectorAward / grant3,63225,028Form 4
2026-05-15Reilly DaviddirectorAward / grant3,63236,062Form 4
2026-05-15Bright GuntherdirectorAward / grant3,6326,166Form 4
2026-05-15GOLDBERG MICHELLE JdirectorAward / grant3,6327,898Form 4
2026-05-15MERRILL ALLAN PdirectorAward / grant3,6325,658Form 4
2026-05-15Clark Mayree CdirectorAward / grant3,632100,318Form 4
2026-05-15SHARPLES BRIANdirectorAward / grant3,63244,741Form 4
2026-05-15Weber Tracey DrakedirectorAward / grant3,6323,632Form 4
2026-05-15Hutchinson Russell E.officerOther acquisition60Form 4
2026-04-09GIBBONS THOMAS PdirectorAward / grant1,21121,396Form 4
2026-04-09Reilly DaviddirectorAward / grant82932,430Form 4
2026-04-09Bright GuntherdirectorAward / grant3482,534Form 4
2026-02-03RHODES MICHAEL GEORGEdirectorAward / grant99,291379,473Form 4
2026-02-03Timmerman Douglas R.officerAward / grant41,135517,302Form 4
2026-02-03Hutchinson Russell E.officerAward / grant38,298253,867Form 4
2026-02-03McGrath Austin ThomasofficerAward / grant27,89730,098Form 4
2026-02-03Hall William Cadik Jr.officerAward / grant27,483216,993Form 4
2026-02-03Mehlman HopeofficerAward / grant23,405102,900Form 4
2026-02-03Richard Stephanie NofficerAward / grant18,97298,927Form 4
2026-02-03Patterson Kathleen L.officerAward / grant18,618111,659Form 4
2026-01-30RHODES MICHAEL GEORGEdirectorWithheld for tax10,765280,182Form 4
2026-01-30Hutchinson Russell E.officerWithheld for tax5,318220,018Form 4
2026-01-30Hall William Cadik Jr.officerWithheld for tax5,107197,707Form 4
2026-01-30Hutchinson Russell E.officerWithheld for tax4,449215,569Form 4
2026-01-30Hall William Cadik Jr.officerWithheld for tax4,261193,446Form 4
2026-01-30Hall William Cadik Jr.officerWithheld for tax3,936189,510Form 4
2026-01-30Timmerman Douglas R.officerWithheld for tax3,836482,623Form 4
2026-01-30Timmerman Douglas R.officerWithheld for tax3,596479,027Form 4
2026-01-30Patterson Kathleen L.officerWithheld for tax2,87696,858Form 4
2026-01-30Timmerman Douglas R.officerWithheld for tax2,860476,167Form 4
2026-01-30Patterson Kathleen L.officerWithheld for tax2,03294,826Form 4
2026-01-30Richard Stephanie NofficerWithheld for tax2,02181,660Form 4
2026-01-30Patterson Kathleen L.officerWithheld for tax1,78593,041Form 4
2026-01-30Richard Stephanie NofficerWithheld for tax1,70579,955Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.